It's a precarious time for the Russian player -- she's entering a month-long stretch where she has a lot of points to defend. Last year at this time, she reached four straight championship matches, winning titles in Rome and Madrid and also finishing second at the French Open.
She's been a little more quiet this year. She's dropped a bit in the rankings, has put together a less-than-impressive 4-2 record on the year and has only defeated one top twenty-five player since Cincinnati.
On Thursday Dinara faces her first test against Agnes Szavay, a woman who actually beat her a few years back in Charleston. It's not an easy opening round by any means, and certainly not the way I'd want to be greeted upon my return. But Safina should be somewhat mollified that Szavay struggled a bit in her first round match, ceding a set to Andrea Petkovic.
There's also the fact that other seeds (Safina retained enough points to hold on to the #2 spot in Germany) are dropping like flies. Last year's champion -- and Dinara's foil for most of the spring -- Svetlana Kuznetova was ousted by Na Li in the second round and Caroline Wozniacki, possibly still suffering through her fall in Charleston a few weeks back, lost in straight sets to Lucie Safarova earlier today.
Regardless, there are plenty of threats even if Dinara makes it through today, and it'll be a tough road ahead, no doubt. It takes the best players a while to regain their footing after injury -- and I'm not sure I'd put her in the same class as, say, Rafael Nadal, who took nearly a year to win his first title after being sidelined. I can't do the math to figure out just how far out of the top tier she'll fall if she can't repeat her performance from last year, but I think it's safe to say 2010 will have to be a rebuilding year for her.
Of course she might surprise me and rush out the gate swinging -- but if she doesn't, you can bet that plenty of others will be eager to take her place.
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