Avoiding the Meltdown

The sports pages in the U.S. today are all a-twitter over the stunning results of the last few hours -- minutes, even -- of the 2011 baseball season. A couple amazing rallies and a few unprecedented burnouts turned the year on its head, and what had been such a promising start for some ended with more than a few heads hanging in defeat.

Tennis players are more than capable of staging their own flame-outs. Sam Querrey raced into the elite, peaking at #17 in the world this past January, but went through a six-month period in which he won only one match -- dogged by injury most of this year, he's now ranked out of the top hundred. And Aravane Rezai, who climbed into the top fifteen less than a year ago, hadn't won more than two matches at a tournament all year until making the Dallas finals in August -- she's now just out of double-digit territory. But a couple players are trying to avoid similar fates this week in Asia -- after all, the last thing they want is to collapse fizzle out like the sad boys in Boston and Atlanta.

Andy Murray is probably the least likely to suffer a monstrous breakdown -- at #4 in the world, I have to begrudgingly admit he's probably the most talented player without a Major title. But he has periods of weakness -- he didn't win a match for more than two months after the Australian Open -- and he routinely allows opponents to walk all over him on the biggest stages. As the stronger hardcourt player, he probably should have won his U.S. Open semifinal against Rafael Nadal, but instead he was barely able to put a chink in the armor.

The Scot begins his Asia tour as the top seed in Bangkok, and really should seize the opportunity to make a statement -- especially with both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer pulling out of the China Open. Earlier today he thumped veteran Michael Berrer in straight sets, setting up a meeting with up-and-comer Grigor Dimitrov. The young Bulgarian has certainly shown he's got talent, and if he's able to get under Murray's skin it could get tough for the favorite. Still, as long as Andy keeps his cool -- something he is want to lose now and again -- it could bode well for his tournament.

A problem may arise, though, if he has another run-in with U.S. Open standout Donald Young. The surprise vanquisher of both Stanislas Wawrinka and Juan Ignacio Chela in New York has already notched wins over Murray and Jurgen Melzer this year and climbed to within a stone's throw of the top fifty. It may have taken a little longer than most pundits expected, but he certainly looks ready now to carry the mantle of next-gen American tennis stars.

Of course, he shouldn't rest on his laurels. Another one prone to letting emotions get the better of his game -- and his off-court behavior -- he still has a lot of work to do in Bangkok. Though he was impressive in his dismissal of fourth-seeded Guillermo Garcia-Lopez on Thursday, he still potentially faces a challenge from world #9 Gael Monfils if he's going to make his first Tour final. It's not out of his reach, but something he'll need to keep his focus in order to achieve.

Unlike these guys, Marcos Baghdatis isn't one susceptible to throwing tantrums -- the friendly Cypriot is one of the calmest guys on Tour -- but his game is certainly one with ups and downs. Once ranked in the top ten, he failed to defend most of his points from last summer and has since fallen out of the top fifty. This year he's beaten Juan Martin Del Potro and Andy Murray, but also lost eleven opening rounds.

He took a wildcard entry into Kuala Lumpur, though, and opened with a solid victory over quick-rising Alex Bogomolov, Jr. He followed it up with a win over Somdev Devvarman, a man with whom he's split his last two meetings. He'll face doubles start Jurgen Melzer next, but the Austrian has been a little spotty himself recently and hasn't made a third round since July. If Baghdatis is at his best, I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here too.

Serbian star Janko Tipsarevic is similarly likely to see his game break down. Last year after stunning Andy Roddick in the second round of the U.S. Open he promptly dropped in four sets to Gael Monfils. And back in February he was in total control versus Del Potro in the Delray Beach final before he broke down and ceded victory to the Argentine. But though he squandered his chance in another final in Eastbourne, he finally seemed to gain ground late in the summer -- he made the semifinals in Montreal and broke into the top fifteen after reaching the quarters in New York.

That record was enough to get him a third seed in Kuala Lumpur, where today he made the final eight with a win over Flavio Cipolla. The road only gets harder from her, as he next faces one-time world #3 Nikolay Davydenko, who's in the process of getting himself back together after his own injury sabbatical. The Russian has won their previous two meetings, but the last one was more than three years ago. If Tipsarevic is able to play as consistently has he had the last few months, he should make good on his favored position.

It's important for all these guys to keep momentum on their side. We've still got a few weeks to go before the end of their season, but this is certainly not the time to start slacking off. After all, none of us want to see another set of slumps that rival what's already happened in September -- especially the players themselves.

Before Moving On...

This week the men begin their tour of Asia in the last leg of the 2011 season. But before traveling to the other side of the globe, a couple spent this past weekend getting in their last blows in Europe, and those that prospered most are on their way to ending their year on the highest note.

On the red clay of Bucharest -- that's right, we're still not done with the dirt -- some players were right at home. Defending champion and top-seed Juan Ignacio Chela made his way to the semis without dropping a set, but he was eventually bested by Casablanca winner Pablo Andujar. On the bottom half of the draw, Munich finalist Florian Mayer, who survived a close call to Carlos Berlocq in his opener, eventually reached his fifth career championship match, playing in top form.

Mayer's experience eventually got the better of the Spaniard as he survived a trade-of-breaks in the first set and capitalized on a double fault by his opponent to draw even. He won eight games in a row and ran off to a 5-0 lead in the second, virtually sealing the match. After just over an hour the twenty-seven year old German was hoisting his first ever trophy, proving it's never too late to make a stand in this sport.



A little further west in Metz, the top seeds were again putting on a show. Fresh off a Davis Cup drubbing, hometown boy Jo-Wilfried Tsonga rebounded quickly and ran to the final -- his third of the year -- with wins over (lower case) marathon man Nicolas Mahut and rising star Alexandr Dolgopolov. And though world #15 Richard Gasquet was upended in his second match, veteran Ivan Ljubicic made good on the opening to advance to his second final of the year, outperforming his fourth seeding.

But things again proceeded as the numbers suggested. Tsonga got off to a quick start, taking the opening set in under forty minutes, but squandered a break lead in the second as the Croat forced a tiebreak and a deciding set. The Frenchman regained control, though, forging ahead early in the third and finally closing out the match. It was his first title since 2009, but more importantly it bumped him up the World Tour Finals rankings, where he now stands at #7. If he holds on, it would be his first appearance at the year-end championships since 2008, and the way he's playing recently, could be his best chance yet to make a big statement.



While most other players in the sport were traveling to Asia, it seems the decision to stay in the Western Hemisphere has behooved both of this weekend's champions. And as the season winds down there could be no better time to take advantage of every opportunity. Because once they make it over to the other continent, everyone should be put on notice.

The Asian Swings

The courts at the U.S. Open aren't event cold yet and already the ladies have made their way to the other side of the globe for the first leg of the fall season. And some players are already wielding their racquets in an attempt to end their years on a high note.

There haven't been too many huge upsets at the Guangzhou International Women's Open, where three of the four remaining athletes are seeded at the event. Though defending champion Jarmila Gajdasova was ousted earlier today, top seed Maria Kirilenko -- a real fighter, as she proved in New York -- has been relentless in her progress. The world #28 hasn't won a title since 2008, but has so far not dropped a set in China, and with a semifinal meeting against Chanelle Scheepers, who proved herself a journeywoman against Francesca Schiavone in her U.S. Open third round, she has a good chance to at least get back to a final -- the South African has played deciders in all three of her matches so far, and eventually the effort will catch up with her.

But the real story in Guangzhou has been homegrown Jie Zheng, once ranked fifteenth in the world. A semifinalist in Melbourne last year, she notched wins over Maria Sharapova and now-retired Elena Dementieva in 2010, but a wrist injury has largely kept her out of contention for the last twelve months. Now hanging around the low eighties, she's way out of seeding territory, but you know she's capable of doing damage well beyond her rank. So far, she's taken out Alberta Brianti and Petra Martic. And if she truly is back in form, I wouldn't be surprised to see her handle Magdalena Rybarikova in the semis and make a real push for this title.

The stakes were slightly higher in Seoul, where four of the top twenty-five women in the world entered the draw, but the upsets were also more striking. Last year's French Open champion Schiavone dropped her opener to Vera Dushevina and talented, if not slightly spotty, Marion Bartoli fell one round later, giving American doubles specialist Vania King her first ever top-ten victory. That opens the door for remaining seeds like Dominika Cibulkova who, at twenty-two -- in rank and in age -- still hasn't claimed that maiden title. She's shown signs of brilliance, of course, beating world #1 Caroline Wozniacki twice this year and scoring victories over Sharapova and Vera Zvonareva to boot, but she has yet to really shine. If she can make it past the quarters, though, this could be her turn.

Unfortunately for Cibu, she's in the same half of the draw as a girl who's having her own breakthrough this year. Kazakhstan's Galina Voskoboeva has been pro for nearly a decade, but hadn't spent a lot of time in the top hundred -- consistent performances on the ITF Tour and upsets of several top-thirty players, though, has pushed her to a new level. She isn't seeded in Seoul, but pulled off wins over Ekaterina Makarova and veteran Iveta Benesova already on her way to the quarters. She next faces Dushevina, not an easy task, as she's lost four of their five previous meetings, but certainly less intimidating than the Slam titleist she should have met.

There aren't many more weeks left in the 2011 season, and as the ladies wrap up there is a chance for some to prove they belong with the big girls and others to make a name for themselves. There's no telling yet who'll ultimately end up on top, but those who swing the hardest now may be the ones who hold the advantage.

New on the Scene

The ladies in the winners' circles this weekend are far from household names. But with the four who contested the trophies all going after their maiden crowns, it might not be long before they find themselves more in the spotlight. Twenty-year-old Ksenia Pervak came to Uzbekistan with on of her more successful summers. She'd made the fourth round at Wimbledon with wins over Shahar Peer and Andrea Petkovic and run to the finals at Baku. A shade off her highest-ever ranking, the fifty-second ranked player was still the top seed in Tashkent and worked her way through the draw without dropping a set. There she met little-known Czech Eva Birnerova, a pro for almost ten years who's spent most of her career making a mark on the ITF tour. She had a tougher road to the championship match, having three set victories two rounds in a row and advancing when Alla Kudryavtseva retired up a set in their semi. Easily the less experienced player in Saturday's match, Birnerova didn't put up much of a fight, allowing Pervak to win about two-thirds of her return points, breaking serve seven times. It was only the Russian's second final of her career, but with the way she's been playing this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see her around much more in the coming months. In Quebec City the stakes might have been a little higher, as the top four seeds all held rankings at least better than fifty. But world #23 Daniela Hantuchova was stopped in the third round by New Zealand's Marina Erakovic on the way to her first ever Tour final -- she hadn't made a semi since 2008. On the bottom half of the draw, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, fourteen times a doubles champion, benefitted from the early departure of Lucie Safarova as she made her first final since Prague last year. Though Erakovic got off to a good start, the tables turned quickly and the Czech #7 -- ranked globally at #75 -- only dropped one game in the last thirteen. Playing some of her most aggressive tennis now, at twenty-five years of age, she should see her profile in the sport much enhanced. All these ladies have the potential to do some damage among the ranks of the top stars, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take the confidence they gained this weekend into future matches. It could take a while for them to make the biggest impact, but they've certainly shown how capable they are of doing it now.

Right Back At It

It hasn't even been a week since the last ball of the U.S. Open was struck, but that hasn't prevented some of the sport's biggest stars from representing their countries in the Davis Cup semifinals and World Group play-offs. And while newly-minted New York champion Novak Djokovic bowed out of his first rubber, plenty others who were pushed to the limit last week were out and swinging in the first day of the weekend's battles.

Runner-up Rafael Nadal might have been upset that he was unable to defend his title from last year, but he showed no signs of that on Friday when he took on France's Richard Gasquet on the clay of Spain. A tricky player, Gasquet has handed losses to the likes of Jurgen Melzer and Andy Roddick already this year, and cannot be overlooked. But Nadal made quick work of his opponent, winning all but two points on second serve and only allowing the Frenchman twelve on return. It took just over two hours to give Spain the early lead in the tie -- the desire to prove something runs strong in this one, it seems, as it's at least the second time he's taken out recent disappointment on a Davis Cup challenge.

Teammate David Ferrer suffered a similar upset in New York when the fifth seed fell to recently cut-down Andy Roddick in the round of sixteen. But against world #11 Gilles Simon, who himself suffered an early defeat to sub-twenty American John Isner at Flushing Meadows, Ferrer was indomitable -- he committed far fewer errors and broke his opponent an astonishing eight times during the match. The two-tie deficit will be pretty hard for last year's second place finishers to overcome now.

Over in Belgrade, the defending champions were down their biggest star, and that certainly put them at a disadvantage to the power-players on Argentina's team. Veteran David Nalbandian, who received a bit of a reprieve by facing Viktor Troicki instead of white-hot Novak Djokovic, nevertheless was relentless against the much-higher ranked Serb. After splitting the first two sets, he raised his game in the last two, withstanding fifteen total aces and staying aggressive himself. It was his first top-twenty win since January and reminded us that the nearly-thirty year old isn't going anywhere just yet.

Several hours later, 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro, who had his return in New York staunched earlier than I would have hoped, continued his comeback. In a rematch of the Delray Beach final, this time he was in control from the start against Janko Tipsarevic. His straight set win gave Argentina a two-tie lead over last year's victors, which could be hard to overcome without Djokovic in the mix.

The action wasn't all among those contesting the World Group semis, however. Down in the play-off level of Davis Cup, U.S. Open semifinalist Roger Federer was fighting for the chance to elevate Switzerland in next year's games. After compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka put them in a hole by losing to Australian upstart Bernard Tomic, the team's main man took the court versus fellow journeyman Lleyton Hewitt, a man who won their most recent meeting in Halle last year. But after losing the first set, the Grand Slam master eventually got the better of Hewitt, bringing the Swiss even with their opponents. It's got to boost the confidence of the man who blew two chances to make the U.S. Open finals.

It's true that there is no rest for the weary, and with even players who were around through championship weekend still showing up for their homelands, you know how important the Davis Cup is to them. And for whoever wins, they'll have the pleasure of knowing they had to beat the best to do it.

How Times Have Changed

By now we all know that last night, after four-plus hours of top-notch rallies, impossible gets, stunning winners and all-out fighting in Arthur Ashe Stadium we have crowned a brand new U.S. Open champion.

World #1 Novak Djokovic, already the winner of two Grand Slams this year, came out swinging after a grueling five-set semifinal victory over Roger Federer and was relentless against defending champion Rafael Nadal Monday. He built up a somewhat surprising two-set lead, and though he squandered an early advantage in the third, he eventually closed out the title, 6-1 in four sets.

The match itself was fantastic, with both men showing the true resolve of champions, the willingness and ability to get to every shot, and the determination not to give up. But more importantly it displayed the new state of tennis -- one that tried and true veterans cannot keep up with and one that young upstarts will find hard to crack.

Rafael Nadal's three titles this year are a far cry from the seven he won in 2010. But has played in nine finals, eight of which were either Majors or Masters tournaments. He's a pit bull, and though he's been plagued by injuries on an off, he's only lost before the quarterfinals of an event once this year -- just three times since the 2008 French Open. He's racked up a higher-than-usual number of losses this year, most of them to Djokovic, but even when he should be challenged, he somehow comes up with the better play and is able to triumph. It's the reason he has at least one Grand Slam title for each of the last seven years.

But clearly this year, Novak Djokovic has been his -- and everyone else's -- foil. Now rocking a 64-2 record, he also has nineteen wins over top ten opponents, and his only losses came to people in the top four. Every time you think he has to be exhausted he manages to get his racquet on one more ball and find the sharpest angle to make his shot. There are plenty of reasons -- improved fitness, a special diet, a new confidence in his game -- but the bottom line is that he really is that good. And week after week he's only gotten better. His tenth title of the year -- second place Robin Soderling only has four -- just backs up his dominance further.



So what is everyone else to do?

Roger Federer is the only other active (and contending) player out there who has more than one Major title under his belt. He's certainly not out of the picture yet, and conceivably has another Slam or two in his future, but it certainly looks like he's finding it harder to compete with the big guys. He held two match points in this weekend's semi but couldn't convert, and has now marked the first time since 2002 -- the year in which the great Swiss just cracked the top ten -- he did not win a Slam. He only made one final and hasn't taken any title since Doha in January. For him to break the Nole/Rafa stranglehold on the big events -- together they've won the last seven -- he might have to hope his younger contemporaries take out the stiffest competition for him.

Highlighting those contemporaries, of course, is world #4 Andy Murray, whose performance at the Slams does admittedly improve every year. He's played in all four semis this year, the first time he's ever accomplished that feat, and I'm frankly surprised he hasn't won one yet. He certainly has the game to do so -- he's won a solihttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifd seven Masters titles, holds an impressive 8-6 record over Federer, and probably would have won the final in Cincinnati even if Nole hadn't retired. Yet deep into the fortnights of the big tournaments he always seems to struggle -- he hasn't won a single set in any of the three finals he's played.

Juan Martin Del Potro, of course, has been the only man other than Roger, Rafa and Nole to win a Slam since 2005, and so he clearly cannot be discounted. A lengthy lay-off from injury ended in fits and starts, but he did seem to get his game back together this year with titles in Estoril and Delray. I'm a bit surprised he didn't make a deeper run this year in New York, but as he returns to top form, I'd expect him to take a big part on the championship podium the next few years.

As for everyone else, sure there will be chances for others to shine. I'd love for Andy Roddick to win again in New York or Mardy Fish to have a late-career breakthrough. Youngsters like Bernard Tomic and Milos Raonic also certainly have shown they can cause a stir in the brackets, and once their games mature their names can get sprinkled in the mix.

Until then, though, we might have to get used to a new era -- one those at the top will not give up any time soon.

Drama, Drama, Drama

It wouldn't be a night out in New York if a couple of heated sparks didn't fly. But thankfully, this time around, those sparks didn't cause too big a fire.

Three-time U.S. Open champion Serena Williams and last year's French Open finalist Sam Stosur took the court Sunday evening in what promised to be one of more thrilling women's finals we've seen in a while. But the most exciting moments of the match came, not from a fantastic shot or a drawn-out rally, but from a chair umpire's decision and the ensuing fall-out.

The storyline, if not the details, seems familiar. Serving at 30-40 in the first game of the second set, Williams prematurely and loudly celebrated a shot that probably would have been a winner. But because the shout came before Stosur got to the ball, Eva Asderaki -- neither the official from the 2009 foot-fault debacle nor the one from Serena's famed 2004 quarterfinal with Jennifer Capriati -- penalized the American for intentional hindrance and, rather than calling a let as commentators suggested was appropriate, awarded the point and, incidentally the break of serve, to Stosur.

It didn't come at quite as crucial a point in the match as did the penalty two years ago -- the commotion actually got the crowd on Serena's side, and she was able to draw back even the very next game -- but it did set off another angry tirade from Williams. She accused Asderaki of "screwing" her over again, apparently mistaking her for Mariana Alves who officiated in '04, and threatened during the changeover, "If you ever see me walking down the hall, walk the other way." Several points later she was still fuming over the code violation.



In the end, of course, it wasn't the "free" point, but the quality of Stosur's play that won her the match. She won more than seventy percent of her first serve points and committed half the number of errors as her opponent. She got her racquet on most balls Serena hit and was able to catch her off balance more than a few times with her own serve. She was able to withstand the noise and distraction that began the second set and kept her cool when she became the accidental villain in the crowd's eye. And when a forehand from Williams sailed wide on a second match point, it was Stosur who raised her arms in stunned victory.



It's a shame, of course, that the match will be remembered more for Williams' outburst than for Stosur's win. But the latter shouldn't be ignored -- after watching Sam play earlier in the week, I felt she was probably the only player in the field capable of absorbing and handing back the power Serena could dole out. And if you watched her Sunday, you have to appreciate the way she earned her victory -- with skill, focus and very little drama.