A New #1?

Current world #1 Serena Williams made it to the finals in Miami last week, while #2 Dinara Safina didn't get past the third round. The two battled in the Australian Open finals in early February, when Serena rolled over the Russian in less than an hour to claim her fourth title in Melbourne. It was Williams' tenth major win -- while Safina, in two final appearances, hasn't yet brought home a Slam. She also hasn't won a championship since Tokyo last year.

Apparently, all that history doesn't matter.

In a little more than a week, Dinara will take over the #1 ranking, becoming only the nineteenth woman -- and second Russian -- to hold the spot. She also is part of the only brother-sister duo to claim the position -- twenty-nine year old Marat Safin was at the top of his game for nine weeks in 2000 and 2001.



To add insult to injury, Williams suffered a tough first-round loss to 95th-ranked Klara Zakopalova in Andalucia earlier today -- a tournament Safina, incidentally, didn't even enter.

I don't mean to imply that Safina doesn't deserve the #1 ranking -- she had a stellar 2008, winning four titles and Olympic silver. She rose from #15 in the world at the start of last year to #2 now, and has notched wins over Williams, Jelena Jankovic, Elena Dementieva and Vera Zvonareva all in the past twelve months. Obviously, and somewhat hearteningly, that success counts for something.

Even if Serena's had the more successful year so far -- hard work does, it seems, pay off.

Houston, We Have a Problem

I can't remember the last time when the top seeds were ousted in the very first round of a tournament. But at Houston's U.S. Men's Clay Court Championship, which kicked off the road to the French Open, that's exactly what happened.

American men have never really been a force on the slippery surface -- remember in Pete Sampras's record fourteen Grand Slam titles, the only one that eluded him was Roland Garros. Even still James Blake and Mardy Fish were given the #1 and #2 seeds respectively -- and it was apparently a lot to live up to.

Neither man has had the most success this year. A frustrated Blake hasn't won a title since New Haven in 2007 and, as he deals with an ankle injury, has seen his ranking steadily slip from #10 at the start of the year to #17 as of Monday. Fish, on the other hand, was able to pull out a victory in Delray Beach last month, but also suffered first-match exits in Miami and Indian Wells, not to mention two tournaments in Australia.



However the high billing in Houston should have given them some support, if only psychological. James, with the top spot, faced Argentina's Guillermo Canas while his friend took on Germany's Bjorn Phau. Mardy was able to capture the second set before falling in the third to the 77th-ranked Phau, while Blake was practically decimated by the former top-ten player, now ranked #113 -- Canas only ceded four of his first serves.

Of course the losses are rough. My personal bias toward my countrymen, and my particular love of Blake, aside, it's hard to see these guys lose time and again. The resurgence of Andy Roddick and wins this week by two younger players, John Isner and Scoville Jenkins, are reassuring, but far from the widespread success that brought home the titles and the Davis Cup in 2007. If these early results are any indication, this could be a rough year.

Thankfully it wasn't a total loss for the American men. Blake and Fish did team up in the doubles draw and did manage a win over wildcard entrants Amer Delic and Robert Kendrick.



Here's hoping they see more success in that bracket!

The Battle For #3

It may not seem like the most coveted prize, but in the realm of men's tennis the #3 world ranking is probably the best that anyone can hope for.

Rafael Nadal is so far ahead of the pack, and Roger Federer had amassed so many points over his career, that there only seems to be any wiggle room in the rest of the rankings.

And that was certainly on the minds of both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray as they took the courts in Miami today. Murray, technically #4, has been arguably one of the best players so far this year, winning titles in both Doha and Rotterdam already, while a struggling Djokovic holds tenuously onto his #3 ranking with a championship in Dubai and an admittedly impressive semifinal win over Federer on Friday.

The winner of the Sony Ericsson Open would surely make his case for a big move in the standings ahead of the ever-imminent French Open.

As the match started it seemed the momentum that has been with Murray since January would continue. He broke Novak twice in a row and ran off to a 4-0 lead before taking the set in a half hour. He even started the second set by breaking Nole again, making an easy victory seem inevitable. But somehow Djokovic was able to turn things around. He evened up the set and even went ahead 4-1 before he earned his first set point at 5-3. What could have been a runaway suddenly turned into a real match, with both players looking hungry for the title.



Ultimately Murray was able to regroup and broke Novak two more times. It was the outcome you'd expect, given each man's performance so far in 2009. The 1000 points he earns from the second top-tier tournament of the year brings Murray within one more championship of the #3 ranking, and must make Djokovic a little nervous.



In fact, I think a couple of people should be nervous -- Federer has certainly proven his fallibility at the hands of other top players, and Nikolay Davydenko could see his position plummet as he sits on the sidelines with a heel injury. Now I'm going to make a pretty bold prediction, but given the way the men have played over the last few weeks, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a shake-up in the broader standings.

By year-end, I forecast a new top five.

1. Rafael Nadal
2. Andy Murray
3. Roger Federer
4. Andy Roddick
5. Novak Djokovic

Make sure to check back in December to see if I'm right!

A Tale of Two Cities

It was the worst of times, it was the best of times...

About two months ago Victoria Azarenka, ranked fourteenth in the world, met Serena Williams in the fourth round of the Australian Open in Melbourne.

It was the middle of the day during one of the hottest summer's in the country's history. Temperatures reached well above the 100-degree mark, while on the court reports suggested that it got as high as 120.

Yes, it was hot -- but so was Victoria. She'd just won her first WTA title in Brisbane, where she hadn't dropped a single set. She'd defeated two wily opponents, Lucie Safarova and Sara Errani, both of whom have given top players a tough battle, and then a resurging Marion Bartoli to take the championship. In Melbourne Azarenka soared over former #1 Amelie Mauresmo in under ninety minutes.

Against the top seed Victoria started in top form, breaking Serena not once, but twice in the first set. It looked like she was poised for a major upset, and about to win the biggest match of her career.

But then the teenager succumbed to the elements, swaying and listing in the heat, as Williams took advantage and a 4-2 lead in the second set. As I watched Victoria, ironically from a hotel room in Miami, I feared she'd collapse on the court -- she didn't, but did retire the match early, visibly shaken and convulsing in tears. Her opponent comforted her on the side and, to her credit, seemed genuinely concerned over Victoria's health.



Fast forward to the finals at the Sony Ericsson Open in Miami this weekend, where Victoria and Serena faced each other for only the third time in their careers. Since Australia both had continued their successes -- Serena of course won her fourth title in Melbourne and was looking to claim her third straight crown here, while Azarenka had added another champion to her resume with a win in Memphis.

But this time, things were quite different.

Victoria had climbed into the top ten for the first time, and she was clearly on a mission. Serena was fighting a soar ankle and quad and her serve was weaker than it had been in years -- fewer than half of her first tries went in, and barely a quarter of her second serves resulted in points for her. Azarenka capitalized, and broke her opponent's serve an incredible five times.

It took just over an hour for the Belarusian to triumph, beating the best women's player in straight sets, 6-3, 6-1, and denying Serena her record sixth title in Miami. Victoria, meanwhile, becomes the sixth teenage champion of the tournament, and rises to a career-high #8 ranking in the WTA. Not bad for ten day's work, and quite a different outcome from their last meeting in a city on the other side of the globe.



In the meantime the men are getting ready for this afternoon's final, where Andy Murray will take on Novak Djokovic. I'm sure it's no surprise that I'm hoping for a similar "upset" in that match as well.

Saving the Best For Last

Apparently the men saved all the shockers -- and their best stuff -- for when it really counted.

While the highest seeded women in Miami could barely get past the second or third rounds, seven of the top eight men were playing in the quarterfinals.

Then last night, in the first big upset of the men's draw, Juan Martin Del Potro scored his first victory over Rafael Nadal. And earlier today third-seeded Novak Djokovic marked only his third victory over Roger Federer in ten tries, earning him his second final of the year.



He'll battle the winner of the Andy Murray-DelPo semi which, at the moment, is tied at one set apiece. While Nole has a winning record against both players and does claim the better ranking, it's hard to say he'd be the favorite in either match-up -- he's certainly seemed to struggle more than both potential opponents this year.

But this win over Federer could give him the boost he needs, and makes the battle in the men's game all the more exciting.

Can't wait to watch it!

I'm Sorry, What Now?

Okay, so Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro don't exactly have the long history that Rafa and Roger Federer have, or the ten-plus year rivalry of the Williams sisters. That's probably because it hasn't been that long since DelPo became a real force in the tennis world -- a year ago he was #81 in the world, he'd never gotten past the second round at a Grand Slam, he hadn't won a single singles title.

Now he's securely in the top ten, a quarterfinalist at the U.S. and Australian Opens, a five-time tournament champion -- including titles in Los Angeles and Washington.

Still, it would seem that, in a match-up between the two, Rafa clearly had the advantage. During their careers Nadal and Del Potro had met only four times and the world #1 had never lost a set. But three of those matches were in 2007, before the Argentine hit his stride, and today in Miami he was clearly in top form.

In what is -- in my humble opinion -- the biggest upset of the Sony Ericsson Open so far, Juan Martin rallied from a 0-3, two-break deficit in the third set to force a tiebreak. In total Nadal actually won two more points than his opponent, but we know that's not what counts in tennis, and DelPo was the one that walked away triumphant.



I admit that I'd almost forgotten about Juan Martin this year. Even though he'd made it to at least the quarters in every tournament he'd played -- and took the crown in Auckland -- Rafa seemed to be the one with the momentum. That ended tonight, and Juan Martin now faces Andy Murray in the semis, another player he's never beaten before.

But as he's already proven, history means nothing in this sport -- and he's surely eager to make a new mark.

Good luck!

It's Been a While...

...Since Novak Djokovic triumphed over Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

In fact, it's been nearly fourteen months. Sure it was a big win -- 2008's Australian Open final, Nole's first, and so far only, Grand Slam win. But since then Tsonga has put together four consecutive victories over the world #3, most recently in the Marseille semifinals on his way to the title. It made some -- okay, me -- wonder if Djokovic really deserved his major.

But in the quarters in Miami, Novak got redemption. It wasn't easy, but in straight sets and over two hours he took the match, 6-3, 6-4. Neither player served well, each making about one out of every two first serves, but the Serb converted where it counted and broke Tsonga twice for his right to advance.



...Since Andy Roddick was at the top of his game.

Sure, he's consistently been in the top ten for more than six year -- save a short blip in 2006 -- but he's taken new form in 2009. He won the title in Memphis and made the finals in Doha.

And on Wednesday he got the late-night (well, sort-of-late-night -- this is Miami, after all!) crowd behind him as he tried to notch his second consective win over former #1 Roger Federer at the Sony Ericsson Open. He rallied from a one-set deficit and saved three straight break points in one game to break Roger and take the second. Amazingly Andy didn't concede a single point on his first three service games in the last set.



Ultimately though, Roger prevailed. He took advantage of the only break opportunity in the set and scored his seventeenth win in nineteen tries over the top American player. But it wasn't a total disappointment for Roddick. The twenty-six year old has the best record on the tour this year, 26-5, and is playing much better than his self-admittedly low #6 ranking. I don't think -- at least I hope it won't be long before he reclaims his spot among the uber-elite.

...Since Serena and Venus have clashed in a big match.

Okay, that's not really true. Over the past eleven years they've matched up twenty times, most recently at the 2008 Tour Championships in Doha and in Dubai in February -- both times Venus won.

But it has been a while since both players held such high rankings during their battle -- Serena at #1 and Venus at #5. The last time things were so close was when they were one and two at the 2003 Australian Open finals.



Today the two will meet in the second women's semifinal in Miami, and there's quite a lot at stake. The last five times the sisters fought, the victor also won the tournament, and with $700K on the line, you can be sure that both will go all-out tonight. The winner would face either Svetlana Kuznetsova or Victoria Azarenka in the finals -- both of whom, you may remember, gave Serena quite a scare in Melbourne this year.

But shouldn't any victory be well-earned? And with such top talent in action, you can be sure that it will be.