The Countdown Begins

We are now exactly one month away from the start of the 2020 U.S. Open, and I don't need to tell anyone how different this season looks than years past.

A host of events slated for the summer have gone uncontested, and players have instead focused on training, exhibitions -- some well executed, others not so much -- and World Team Tennis -- where the not-so-surprising stand out has been a recently out-of-retirement(-again) Kim Clijsters.

#WTT2020: 1. Clijsters' Passing Winner.@Clijsterskim sends this rocket down-the-line winner past @Bryanbrothers to claim mixed doubles for the @NYEmpireTennis. pic.twitter.com/O5NKuJFfXj

— World TeamTennis (@WorldTeamTennis) July 24, 2020

But even as the abbreviated summer stretch finally kicks off after a five month hiatus, there remains plenty of tension and quite a few questions about what's to come.

Earlier this week Simona Halep said she wouldn't play in the Palermo Open, what would have been the WTA's first full tournament since March. It's not the most shocking move -- the world #2's homeland of Romania has been seeing a significant rise in coronavirus cases recently, and she'd long ago expressed concerns about traveling during the pandemic. Still, the event's director was not shy about showing her frustration, saying, "We are embittered and profoundly disappointed."

A couple days later, Britain's Johanna Konta, who would've taken the top seed in Palermo in Halep's place, also pulled out, choosing instead to focus on the upcoming U.S. swing.

But those higher profile events are not immune to withdrawals either -- just yesterday Ashleigh Barty said she'd skip both the U.S. Open and the lead-up Western & Southern Open, moved this year from Cincinnati to New York to minimize player travel. She hasn't yet decided if she'll make the trip to Paris next month to defend her French Open crown.

So where does that leave us?

There are still plenty of highly-ranked players making the trip to Palermo: Petra Martic, Marketa Vondrousova, Maria Sakkari and others are all still in the mix. And the Western & Southern currently has Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, as well as Aussie finalist Dominic Thiem and U.S. Open runner-up Daniil Medvedev on the roster. The ladies' draw boasts its own star power, with the newest Grand Slam champion Sofia Kenin competing alongside Serena Williams and three other top-ten players (not to mention Clijsters as a wildcard).

Still there's a lot of time left before the fields are set. With Roland Garros still slated to start two weeks after the U.S. Open ends, many players may be forced to choose between one or the other -- and if push comes to shove, which title do you think Nadal is more likely to defend?

And all of that tells us nothing about what we can expect in terms of actual player performance over the next few weeks. While a handful of players certainly got in some practice match play to keep their games warm in recent weeks -- and others like Serena and Nole often keep their calendars light ahead of the big events -- the vast majority of the field could be well out of practice. And, when coupled with a bracket that may have more than a few holes in it, that could make for some very interesting upsets and results in New York.

Whatever the case, we're certainly on the edge of what could be a very new era in the world of tennis -- and life in general -- and how things play out over the next few weeks could tell us a lot about the future of our sport. Hopefully we're able to pull it off in a way that keeps everyone safe and healthy. And if these events can wash out that stale taste still in our mouths from the Adria Tour and Atlanta, that gives us a lot more hope for what's to come.

2020 Vision: The Farewells...and the Comebacks

All right, we've finally come down to it -- the last day of the year and the final part of my "Things to Watch in 2020" series. We've looked at everything from the players set to continue their dominance in the new decade to the ones ready to take over the top ranks, from the breakout stars hoping to build on their success of the past year to the ones who really need to step up to the plate soon.

But there are some other changes coming to the tennis field next year -- some to be excited about, and others a real shame.

Let's get the bad stuff out of the way first. Caroline Wozniacki announced earlier this month that she'd end her storied career after the Australian Open, the same stage on which she won her first and only Grand Slam. It's been a long ride for the 29-year-old, who went nine years between her Major final debut and her big win Down Under. But over that time she racked up a total of thirty singles titles and 71 weeks as the #1 player in the world. She's had some struggles -- she's only managed one win over good friend and clear superior Serena Williams over her career, and an injury dropped her as low as #60 during the 2016 season. But she's always managed to claw her way back, even when we counted her out.

On the personal side, she's endured a terrible break-up square in the public eye and found new love and ultimately decided this is the time for her to focus on her family. Of course she's not done yet -- she'll be teaming up with Serena for doubles in Auckland and she'll try to put up a fight in Melbourne. Win or lose, though, it'll be fun to watch her try.

Of course, even when Woz leaves the game, we can't truly rule out a return down the road. If anyone taught us that it was Kim Clijsters. I've already expressed my excitement that the 36-year-old is coming out of retirement for a second time, and now we have a little more detail. Originally planning to play in Melbourne, she had to put things off a bit when she tore her MCL, but she now promises she'll hit the courts again in March in Monterrey and expects also to make a run for another title in Indian Wells. Will she have the same success she enjoyed in her prior two careers? Let's not forget she actually won more Grand Slams in her encore than she did in her first run, even briefly re-claiming the top ranking. Of course, we're now eight years -- and two more kids! -- removed from that era, but I wouldn't count out another title or two.

My final entry on this list may seem a little misplaced, but over the last few months and years Andy Murray certainly has straddled the line between bidding adieu and bounding back into the spotlight. At the start of last year, it seemed like we were prepping for the Scot's farewell tour -- after a near career-ending second hip surgery last January, he gave an emotional press conference before the 2019 Australian Open saying it could be the last time he played. Now I haven't always been his biggest fan, but even I had to admit the game wouldn't be the same without him.

Murray wasn't able to get a win in Melbourne -- and only played doubles (also with Serena, go figure) at his homeland's Wimbledon -- but he stunned the world by capturing a title in Antwerp this past October, outdoing Stan Wawrinka, himself on the rebound, in the final. Unfortunately his fate for the new year is again in question -- a pelvic injury this time has forced him out of at least the first few tournaments of the year. But if he does get back on court at some point, you know he can never be counted out.

Well that does it for my set of story lines for 2020 (though, tune in -- I may have a little extra coming in tomorrow). As I mentioned, I hope to be back to posting like I used to -- maybe not quite as much, but hopefully I'll be more tuned in to what's going on. So keep on coming back, and let me know what's on your mind as we kick off and party through the new year.

'Til then...

Oh my god, I nearly forgot the biggest looming departure of the year, which is doubly depressing because it involves not one but two champions. After more than twenty years on tour, sixteen Grand Slam and four year-end championships together -- not to mention the hundred plus other titles they've captured with each other or partners -- the Bryan Brothers are hanging up their rackets for good after the U.S. Open. I've always said that doubles is an underrated segment of the game, and to watch truly great players like the twins is a privilege. While they've certainly set the standard for excellence in their specialty and ushered in an era of equally talented athletes, there's going to be something missing when we no longer get to witness their signature chest bump of victory.

Back in the Game

I almost spit out my wine last night when I saw that Kim Clijsters is planning to come out of retirement.

In a stunning tweet, the one-time world #1 and four-time Major winner, announced the news, saying she misses the feeling she has on court and promised to "see you in 2020."

Hi guys, I’m excited to finally be able to share this news with you… #wta #2020 pic.twitter.com/tm7jYMEwrH

— Kim Clijsters (@Clijsterskim) September 12, 2019

Her decision certainly got a lot of people -- including Billie Jean King and Andy Roddick -- talking.

I see you @Clijsterskim

— andyroddick (@andyroddick) September 12, 2019

And why shouldn't it? At 36 Clijsters wouldn't be the oldest player in the field, but with seven years passed since her last professional match, she's certain to be a bit out of practice. But as she said, she's up for the challenge, and if anyone can do it, it's probably her.

After all, Kim is getting back in action for the second time in her career. She previously retired in 2007, had a baby, returned to tour two years later, won three Grand Slams and reclaimed the #1 spot during her first comeback. Two more kids later, she'll see how much more she can do.

But she comes back to a much different environment. There's a new crop of kids chomping at the bit for glory: Bianca Andreescu and Coco Gauff, sure, but also 18-year old Amanda Anisimova, who made the semis at Roland Garros, and Sofia Kenin, who counts a win over Serena Williams as one of her highlights this year.

And let's talk about Serena -- another testament to working mothers everywhere, the 37-year-old is of course still a force in the game. But she's been unable to clinch a trophy -- Major or otherwise -- since her return in 2018. And she's notched more than a couple losses to that next-generation talent.

Can Clijsters fare better?

Maybe she doesn't have to. The Belgian doesn't have a lot to prove (neither, of course, does Williams). She's already a legend. She's already in the Hall of Fame. She doesn't need to add any more accomplishments to her already-packed resumé.

Clijsters is doing this entirely for herself. And win or lose, her comeback is going to be a success story.

She hasn't officially entered any tournament yet, but she's hoping to make her return in January, if she feels ready for it.

And from the reaction she got since making her announcement, you can be sure there are a lot of people who hope she is.

Goodbye, Kim

Earlier this evening the tennis world said goodbye to another great champion for a second time.

Kim Clijsters, playing her final professional event at the U.S. Open, having won the tournament her last three trips to New York, lost in her second round to British teenager Laura Robson. The match displayed everything we've come to expect from the Belgian -- her fight, her talent, her compassion for fellow players, her respect and love for the game. And it ended a career that spanned, in no particular order, fifteen years, forty-one titles, one retirement, four Grand Slams, eight Major finals, multiple injuries, a husband, a daughter, twenty weeks at #1, twenty-two straight wins at the Open, nearly two-hundred thousand followers, and just a couple people sad to see her go.

The outpouring of sentiment only begins to do Kim's career justice. She did more than her part to shape women's tennis at the turn of the century, grinding out powerful groundstrokes, placing un-gettable winners, and running down just about every ball with the help of her signature splits. She challenged and often won against the sport's best, pulling together a 7-6 record against Venus Williams, dominating Serena in that infamous New York semi, and turning the tables on countrywoman and long-time rival Justine Henin in both of their second careers. And in the process she moulded the careers of the players who could one day take her place at the top of the game, players like Robson, who after the biggest win of her career said:

"I want to thank Kim for being such a great role model to me for so many years...She's always been someone that I've looked up to since I started on the tour. She's always been incredibly nice to be around. I think we're all going to miss her."

To say Clijsters left a legacy in the sport is an understatement. She's been an inspiration to both those she faced and those still to come. And while she will have to cede the trophy she's held since 2005, it will be a long time before the courts in New York forget her name. And her reign as a true champion will last forever.

Time to Take a Break

Wow, am I tired!

Even five hours behind London time, the late nights at the All England Club over the last week sure have left me exhausted, both physically and emotionally. Favorites have fallen, Cinderellas have emerged, and almost everyone was pushed to the limit. So this Middle Sunday, with the courts at Wimbledon are dark and the final thirty-two just barely decided, it might be a good time to step back, catch our breath, and reassess where we stand now.

The strength still runs deep in the top half of the women's draw -- world #1 Maria Sharapova and four-time Grand Slam titleist Kim Clijsters may be the most recognizable names remaining, but they'll both have their work cut out for them going forward. MaSha will need to survive a rematch of last year's semifinal against Sabine Lisicki, who's playing well here despite a season fraught with injury. And Clijsters, coming off a couple months of physical troubles herself, meets Eastbourne finalist Angelique Kerber, one of the fastest-rising stars this year. The eighth-seded German has never met the veteran before, but she's been relentless all week and arguably faced tougher opponents than Kim who, despite dismissing two seeds didn't meet anyone playing at her best. The two ladies who survive will certainly have earned it.

In the other side of the draw, Aggie Radwanska has reached her fifth fourth round here without enduring any struggle. And her streak might just continue, as her next opponent will be qualifier Camila Giorgi -- the young Italian pulled off a solid upset over Den Bosch champ Nadia Petrova on Friday and might not have it in her to go any farther. And Maria Kirilenko and Shaui Peng, the last two women left in the half, both have the chance of their lifetimes -- neither has made the quarters here before, and with their portion of the bracket cleared out for them, they might be able to go even farther. But I stand by my call that this is Radwanska's opportunity to shine. And if she can make her first Major semi, she'll have shown she's really one to be feared.

There are a few more technical interlopers left in the bottom half of the ladies' draw, but five of the eight know what it's like to hold a Grand Slam trophy above their head. Former world #1 Victoria Azarenka is again playing like she did at the start of the year, having not dropped a set and dominating each opponent. But against fellow one-time Major winner Ana Ivanovic, also flying somewhat under the radar here, she could face a tougher test. Meanwhile defending champion Petra Kvitova meets former French Open winner Francesca Schiavone next, and four-time Wimbledon champion Serena Williams, though tested by Jie Zheng on Saturday, nevertheless looks strong enough to be considered a favorite despite her sixth seeding.

But it might be the underdogs in this half that have the better stories. Grass court specialist Roberta Vinci hasn't been playing as well as she was this time last year, but she was relentless against one-time Wimbledon semifinalist Mirjana Lucic and has now made her first ever Major fourth round. Tamira Paszek, her next opponent, has been here before and is riding a solid eight-match win streak -- one that claimed three top-ten players as victims. The battle between these two could establish a new star for the rest of the season. But the bigger spoiler here might be Yaroslava Shvedova, putting together her second straight Slam of upsets. Early on Saturday she earned the elusive golden set against French Open finalist Sara Errani -- that is, she didn't lose a point in the first six games. Not one point. That's something no woman's done since the 1940s. It'll be tougher against Serena in the fourth round, of course, but she's proven she's capable of some great things on grass -- so why not one more surprise win?

There are slightly more surprises in the men's draw this year than we've been accustomed to -- though maybe that's all just relative -- and that's really shaken up the brackets. Defending champion Novak Djokovic and six-time titleist Roger Federer are both still alive, the latter by the skin of his teeth. But plenty others have fallen by the wayside. Mikhail Youzhny, on the comeback trail, dismissed eighth seeded Janko Tipsarevic in the third round, and world #29 Florian Mayer benefitted from the early exit of 2010 finalist Tomas Berdych to make his first Major fourth round since 2004.

Meanwhile the non-seeds have been putting together some impressive performances of their own. Viktor Troicki who fell just out of seeding territory started off by ousting Marcel Granollers in a surprisingly tight five set match. His victory over Juan Monaco Friday was comparatively easy. And veteran Xavier Malisse has been on fire recently -- ranked a low #75, he's beaten top-twenty players in each of his last two matches. Both men will have tough roads going forward -- Troicki against countryman Djokovic and Malisse versus Federer -- but the champions have been tested recently, so nothing should be assumed. That attitude might most help Denis Istomin who made his first Major fourth round with a win over Alejandro Falla Friday. He's got a date with Youzhny Monday, a far less intimidating foe than most others, so it could be the best opportunity he's had in a second week.

The bottom half of the men's bracket has gone a little more according to plan. Despite one obvious exception, players like Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and David Ferrer have all advanced with relatively little drama. Even Mardy Fish, playing his first event since illness halted his season in the spring, and Marin Cilic, who needed a thirty-two game, two-hour fifth set against Sam Querrey on Saturday, have lived up to their rankings to make the second week. And Juan Martin Del Potro, who'd struggled during the clay court season with a knee injury, looks to be winning matches much more easily these days.

But with two-time champion Rafael Nadal out of the picture, the very bottom of this draw holds the best potential for a Cinderella. Phillip Kohlschreiber is no double a fierce competitor and with a win over Rafa in Halle there's no reason to believe he wouldn't have repeated the feat at the All England Club. But the player everyone will be watching is qualifier Brian Baker, a veteran playing his first ever Wimbledon, attempting to make the main draw at Majors for the first time since 2005. He made a glorious run to the final in Nice and defeated Xavier Malisse at Roland Garros. With main-draw wins here against Jarkko Nieminen and up-and-coming Benoit Paire, he's certainly playing well above his #126 ranking. He's been largely unstoppable in all his matches here, and while the German will certainly be his biggest test to date there's no reason to believe he won't survive this one.

As we brace for what is often referred to as the most exciting day in tennis -- all sixteen fourth round matches will be played tomorrow -- there's plenty of opportunity for all those who've survived this far. History and experience will certainly favor some more than others, but nothing should be taken for granted. The first week of action has shown that no one is safe, and the ones left standing are more than capable of taking a few more scalps.

It's kind of nice to get this day off to regroup -- when everyone comes out on court tomorrow, you can be sure they'll swing with whatever power they have in them.

Wimbledon: Draw Analysis

I feel like I haven't even had a chance to breathe since the French Open, and here we are, already on the eve of Wimbledon eve. There are never as many same-surface events leading up to this Major as there are for the others -- in fact this year, with Newport and the Olympics later in the summer, this Slam is practically the start of the lawn tennis season -- so it's difficult to telescope who's best prepared.

Maybe it's that uncertainty -- plus the slew of somewhat crazy results so far -- that makes the draws so ripe for upsets and breakthroughs. And this year promises to be no different.

The Men First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

The Women First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

---

The Men

First Quarter

Defending champion Novak Djokovic comes back to the All England Club with the top seed and a decent draw. Pitted against clay-court veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero in the first round, he should be able to advance without much difficulty. The bigger problem for me is that he'll likely take out personal favorites like Eastbourne semifinalist Ryan Harrison and my dear James Blake to do so. Tomas Berdych could also claim a similar victory when he meets struggling comeback-story Ernests Gulbis in the first round. But eventually, you can expect, the stronger talent will survive.

There are still some interesting matches in this section, though. Harrison will face an immediate rematch with Yen-Hsun Lu, whom he beat just a few days ago in Eastbourne. But the man from Taipei, who's had his most success on grass and made the quarters at Wimbledon in 2010, might have the advantage in a best-of-five situation. And just unseeded Viktor Troicki meets up against dirt specialist Marcel Granollers, which could result in one of the early upsets.

But perhaps the biggest potential for a Cinderella in this quarter comes from world #101 Philipp Petzschner who, despite a couple Major doubles titles, has never had a lot of success on the singles circuit. He's made the third round here once before -- the best result he's put up at a Slam -- and took a two-set to one lead over Rafael Nadal in that match, and after making the 's-Hertogenbosch final as a qualifier, he might be primed to roll that momentum forward. He'll face largely-unknown Blaz Kavcic in the first round, and if he hasn't exhausted himself too much to get through that battle, he could put in a few more wins here.

Who'll survive? The likely battle between Nole and Berdych is rife with history -- the Czech notched his only win over the world #1 on his way to the 2010 final, but subsequent meetings have been hard-fought. He might be playing the slightly better game these days and could score the upset again.

---

Second Quarter

Two-time champion Rafael Nadal has been riding a nice streak of momentum the last few months. He collected four titles through the clay court season, and more importantly avenged defeats by Novak Djokovic and ended a streak of three straight losses to the world #1 in Slam finals. He may have lost early in Halle, but he's done so before and still walked away with this title. First round opponent Thomaz Bellucci has been close to the top-twenty, and he's had a couple nice wins this year, but he's really more of a wildcard on clay and should give Rafa no trouble on grass.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga is probably more of a question in this section of the draw. My New Year's pick to win his first Major here, the Frenchman injured his finger in London and may not yet be in top form. Kicking off against 2002 champ Lleyton Hewitt, Tsonga will have to be in top form. And Feliciano Lopez, who has an impressive record on grass himself, may face Roland Garros Cinderella Brian Baker in the second round. The sorta-veteran American has already worked his way through the qualies and proven he can be a force on Tour. Should he become the player to watch in two straight Slams, we'll really know he's going somewhere.

This quarter also has a couple of first round matches with some interesting storylines. One of the two Alexes -- Bogomolov and Dogopolov -- neither of whom is playing as well as he did last year, will be stopped early in his Wimbledon quest. The Russian has logged eight first round losses this year, and something tells me that number is about to go up. And 2011's surprise quarterfinalist Bernard Tomic and this year's French Open standout David Goffin will present a battle of next-generation stars. It's a shame one will lose so early, but hopefully they'll both put in a good fight.

But perhaps most interesting will be the rematch of the Halle semifinal between world #30 Philipp Kohlschreiber and that tournament's champion Tommy Haas. The seeded German has had a good season, beating Nadal at the Gerry Weber Open, but retired in his Eastbourne quarterfinal. If Haas, a semifinalist at Wimbledon in 2009, continues the run he's been on, he could get a couple wins in before the inevitable third round date with Rafa.

Who'll survive? There are a ton of fun stories in this quarter, but only one will really matter. Nadal should be able to rise above the surface and make the semis again.

---

Third Quarter

Roger Federer far and away has the most experience in this quarter, and shouldn't really be tested in his early rounds. The first seed he's set to meet is France's Julien Benneteau, who hasn't made a lot of waves in recent matches, so odds and talent favor the six-time champion for at least a few matches.

This quarter of the bracket does reveal a sense of humor in the fates, though. After two straight years of first round matches, John Isner and Nicolas Mahut are scheduled for a second round meeting this year. Mahut is coming off a solid win over Andy Murray in London, while Isner might still be reeling from another epic match -- this time resulting in a loss -- in his French second round. It could be an interesting psychological match, if not a physical one.

Veteran Xavier Malisse does lurk as a spoiler in this section -- he made the quarters at Queen's Club and the semis in the Netherlands. The one-time semifinalist is slated to meet Gilles Simon in the second round, a man who's beat him in their previous two meetings, but if he can pull off the upset, it might be smooth sailing for awhile.

But perhaps the most interesting opener will be between eighth-seeded Janko Tipsarevic and London-disqualified finalist David Nalbandian. They've split their two meetings this year, but the Serb hasn't won a match at the All England Clip this decade. If Nalbandian has gotten over his disappointing display at Queen's Club and plays to his ability, he might be able to pull off the win.

Who'll survive? There aren't a lot of threats to Federer in this quarter. I'd love to see him and Isner battling it out for the semi spot, but whoever his opponent is, the result will likely be the same. Roger is the only man to beat here.

---

Fourth Quarter

Andy Murray might have the most interesting opening round of the favorites -- Nikolay Davydenko may have fallen down the rankings since the last time they met, but he does have a decent 4-5 record against the Scot. And Murray's been struggling with injury and attitude for years months -- a loss to Nicolas Mahut in his Queen's Club opener doesn't exactly bode well for him right now. If the Russian can take hold of this match early, it might make for some interesting drama in this draw.

David Ferrer, the other top seed in this quarter, might have an easier time -- a couple qualifiers, a wildcard and a lucky loser highlight his immediate section -- and after his run to the Den Bosch title he could use the break. If all goes according to plan, he should meet Andy Roddick in the third round. The American, of course, has been struggling of late, but his title in Eastbourne proves he's still got some fight left in him. He did notch a win over the Spaniard in their last Major meeting last fall and is arguably the better grass court player. If he's healthy and rested, this could be a great opportunity to pronounce himself still-relevant.

There are a couple other players in this quarter that have the potential to make a big impact. Juan Martin Del Potro made the fourth round here last year, but is now playing even better than that. He's only lost once this year to someone ranked outside the top ten, so even with a first round against Robin Haase, who pushed Rafael Nadal to a fifth set in 2010, he should be in decent shape. And Milos Raonic, who dropped his second round here last year with what would be a near-season ending injury, should feel at home on this surface. He could meet London champ Marin Cilic in the third round and Murray a match later. But he'll be out to prove himself at the All England Club, and it'll be tough to get past that.

As for this quarter's Cinderella, keep an eye out for Sam Querrey -- injury kept him off the lawns in 2011 and his comeback has come in fits and starts, but by making the semis at Queen's he made a nice jump back up the rankings. Slated to meet Raonic in the second round, he'll have his work cut out for him but maybe -- just maybe -- he'll be able to pull off some upsets.

Who'll survive? Hope and sentiment aside, this will be a quarter where only the strong survive. And this time it might be Raonic besting Ferrer for the ultimate semi spot.

---

The Women

First Quarter

Maria Sharapova takes the top seed at a Slam for the first time since the 2008 French -- ironic, isn't it? -- but she has a bit of a tough road if she's looking to extend her Major win streak. Tsvetana Pironkova, who seems to do well here no matter what the rest of her season looks like, might be her second round opponent and, should the seeds play out as planned, Eastbourne finalist Angelique Kerber, who bested her in the Paris Indoors, would vie for the spot in the semis.

But there are even more interesting stories -- and some bigger threats -- in this section of the draw. Either Sabine Lisicki, last year's surprise semifinalist and my New Year's pick for the title, and Petra Cetkovska, who made her own run to the fourth round in 2011, could challenge MaSha for a spot in the quarters. And twenty-eighth seed Christina McHale and rising star Sloane Stephens could give their immediate opponents a run for the money while they try to resurrect Americans' status in the sport.

But perhaps the greatest fireworks will come from the middle of this quarter which houses 2010 runner-up Vera Zvonareva, former #1 Jelena Jankovic and unseeded, two-time semifinalist Kim Clijsters. Frankly I'm a little surprised Bepa, who withdrew before her first round at Roland Garros because of an ongoing shoulder injury, is still in the mix. And with an opener against Mona Barthel, who had an amazing start to the year, it might be hard for her to make any headway here. JJ and Kim, who've both done well at various lead-up events, will meet each other in their first round. Clijsters had to pull out of her 's-Hertogenbosch semi, but if she recovers from her abdominal injury in time, she might just get that on-paper upset.

Who'll survive? All the challenges aside, Sharapova is playing at the top of her game. And with the only true big-hitter in her quarter just coming off injury, I'd expect her to make it past even Clijsters to reach the semis.

---

Second Quarter

Victoria Azarenka started to look like her old self again at Roland Garros, and not necessarily in a good way. But the run she had in the early part of the year was not for naught, and she certainly has the ability to get back on the winning track here. She'll kick off against Irina Falconi, who may put up a struggle, but probably won't face a test for a couple rounds. If early action favors the seeds, her first challenge would come from Ana Ivanovic -- who'd incidentally have to get past a tricky Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez in her opener -- in the sweet sixteen, and even that Vika should be able to handle.

Trickier is the other side of the quarter where former world #1 Caroline Wozniacki, who'll meet surprise Eastbourne champion Tamira Paszek to start. The one-time Junior contemporaries have only played once on the pro Tour, but the Austrian might be riding a more successful wave these days. After her first round loss at the AEGON International, Wozniacki now has fewer than two victories for every defeat this year and hasn't notched a single win over a top-ten player. If she doesn't turn her season around quick, she might be in for her earliest Major exit since the first one she played.

There's room for a few more upsets in this quarter as well. Barely seeded Svetlana Kuznetsova will meet Yanina Wickmayer, ranked just one spot below her, in her first round. Neither have been having the best year, but the Belgian started to turn things around with a runner-up trophy in Bad Gastein while Sveta pulled off that solid victory over Aggie Radwanska in Paris. Neither of those wins was on grass, though, and neither lady has put up any numbers on this surface this year. The Russian leads the pair's head-to-head, but Wickmayer pulled off a stunning win last year at the All England Club, so it might be an opportunity for her to pull even with her opponent.

Who'll survive? Azarenka might not be playing at her best, but the other players in this quarter aren't either. Whether by virtue of ability or luck, it looks like the Belarusian might have it made until the semis at least.

---

Third Quarter

Aggie Radwanska has been a little quiet since the successful run that brought her to the #3 spot in the world. A third-round loss in Paris and a opening defeat in Eastbourne may not be the way she wants to prepare for her historically-best Slam, and with the possibility of another second-round against Venus Williams, that's a shame. But if she wins that match, it could be smooth sailing for quite some time -- I'm not sure I'd say the same for Venus who, at thirty-one and still trying to manage her Sjogren's Syndrome, may not have the stamina for more than a few big battles.

There aren't many other true grass-courters in this quarter. Sam Stosur has never made it out of the third round at the All England Club, and Na Li, a quarterfinalist in 2010, haven't really done much off of clay recently. That could mean an opportunity for super-Cinderellas to emerge. Misaki Doi, ranked just out of the top hundred, scored a win over top-seeded Francesca Schiavone in Birmingham and first faces Arantxa Rus, who made a solid fourth-round run at Roland Garros. And one-time American darling Melanie Oudin might be polishing her star again after that title at the AEGON Classic. She'll probably face a tough second round against 's-Hertogenbosch winner Nadia Petrova, but the Russian is notoriously erratic and might not be the challenge her ranking suggests.

Who'll survive? If she gets through Venus early, this is Aggie's quarter. If not, it'll be someone totally random. Let's say Maria Kirilenko, just for fun.

---

Fourth Quarter

Defending champion Petra Kvitova comes to Wimbledon in 2012 with zero titles on the season -- at this time last year, she had three. She wasn't even able to defend runner-up points in Eastbourne, and despite her #4 ranking, she's currently just in the running for a spot in Istanbul, which she won in 2011. Luckily for her, she'll have a couple easy rounds here, with her first seeded opponent being a similarly struggling youngster, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. But it will get harder from there.

Serena Williams also has a clear road early on. Her potential third round against 2008 semifinalist Jie Zheng may be a bit more intimidating that Kvitova's, but after her shocking first round loss at Roland Garros, look for her to come out swinging -- and angry. That probably won't bode well for Sara Errani, the next highest seed in Serena's half of the quarter and her potential fourth round challenger, but then again the French Open finalist might want to prove her run wasn't a fluke and improve on her dismal 's-Hertogenbosch showing.

There are a couple places here too where we might see some big surprises. Yaroslava Shvedova, a doubles champion here in 2010, made the quarters in Roland Garros as a qualifier and is now ranked #65 in the world. She's in the same portion of the draw as Lucie Safarova and Errani, so could take advantage of non-lawn players. And Klara Zakopalova, a semifinalist in Eastbourne, might give thirteenth seed Dominika Cibulkova a fight in their first round. The Slovakian seems to be getting her groove back, but she's been spotty at times this year and might be an easy pick for her opponent.

Who'll survive? It seems inevitable Kvitova and Serena will be the ones playing in the quarters, and with so much on the line for both it's sure to be a good fight. I'll give this one to Serena, but it'd be nice for the Czech to put up a big fight.

---

It'll be a long road for any of these guys or girls to make the final, but the draws have shaped up to provide plenty of opportunity for any underdog to make a statement. The favorites will be out in full force to either reclaim or defend their titles from years past. But if the past few weeks have taught us anything, it certainly looks like even the ones most comfortable at the All England Club might not be as safe as they once were.

A Change of Season

Today marks the official start of summer in the northern hemisphere, and the warmer weather and longer days seem to have had quite an effect on a couple players making a shift to the grass court season as well. Some have struggled in the heat, but others have taken the opportunity to really come out of hibernation.

Plenty of seeds have fallen by the wayside in the 's-Hertogenbosch men's draw -- through the first two rounds, only 2008 champ David Ferrer has survived. But other clay-court specialists haven't fared as well -- Colombia's Santiago Giraldo dropped his first round match while third-seeded Jurgen Melzer, a semifinalist at Roland Garros in 2010 was ousted easily by world #70 Tatsuma Ito earlier today.

And that could be a big break for Belgium's Xavier Malisse, now just barely ranked in the double digits. After running to the quarters last week at Queen's Club, he kicked off his campaign in the Netherlands by ousting second seed Viktor Troicki and followed it up with a straight-set win over Paolo Lorenzi today. Though he's never won a title on the surface, he has a better record on grass than any other turf and with no real intimidating opponents in his path, he might have a clear road to at least the final.

The ladies' draw at the Unicef Open has been similarly decimated -- top seeds Sam Stosur and Sara Errani, who've each had some their biggest successes on clay, both fell in their first round, and Flavia Pennetta, who's won most of her nine career titles on clay, was served two breadsticks in her second.

And though a few seeds still remain, perhaps unseeded Kim Clijsters has established herself as the favorite at this event. Out of the top fifty now that she hasn't played since Miami, she lost her first set to Romina Oprandi -- ironically the woman who beat her here last year -- but has been back in battling form ever since. She has a quarterfinal date with 2010 French Open champ Francesca Schiavone, a woman much more at home on the dirt and one to whom she's never lost, and with no other seeds left in her section of the bracket, it could be smooth sailing to the final.

Over in Eastbourne the seeds again favored players who thrived in the spring, but both Estoril finalist Richard Gasquet and Spain's Marcel Granollers were sent packing after their openers. A couple are holding tough, of course -- Andreas Seppi, who very nearly took out world #1 Novak Djokovic in the French fourth round, and Munich champion Philipp Kohlschreiber have survived, but with a quarterfinal match-up against each other, only one can possibly go further.

And while other dirt specialists battle each other, flailing American Andy Roddick might be ready to take advantage. Currently out of seeding territory for Wimbledon, the veteran still has a losing record on the year, and a opening round loss last week in London might have dampened his hopes for the grass-court portion of this season. But he benefitted from a retirement by compatriot Sam Querrey on Tuesday, and then survived a close match against Jeremy Chardy earlier today. And with his immediate path cleared for him by his colleagues, this could be the perfect time for him to stage a real comeback.

The ladies at the AEGON International face a similar situation. Aggie Radwanska, honestly an all-court player, but one who reached an career-high ranking thanks in part to a title in Brussels, lost quickly to Tsvetana Pironkova in her opener. And defending Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova suffered a similar fate to 2010 titleist Ekaterina Makarova, who's racking up a trail of top-notch wins this year.

And with a couple of the headline-grabbing players out of the picture, defending champ Marion Bartoli might be able to trot back into the spotlight. She hadn't won more than one match at any event since Miami, so with her relatively easy road to the quarters -- she's lost just four games in each of her first two rounds -- confidence might be building in the one-time Wimbledon runner-up. She'll have to get past seventh-seeded Lucie Safarova first, but her chances for a repeat are looking even better now that her biggest foes have been taken care of for her.

Whether this week's wins can translate into triumphs at Wimbledon remains to be seen, but so far they're looking good. It's been a long time since they've tasted much success, so the victories will be many times as sweet. And if they can keep up their game for a couple more months, the summer sun might shine even brighter for them.

The Big Return

There's something ironic when you compare the draws from Miami and Indian Wells. Whereas a stomach bug afflicted the brackets seemingly from the get-go in the California desert, taking down some competitors before they even struck their first balls, the Sony Ericsson Open has been host to stories of resurrection, seeing players who've been out of the game for months return, hoping to recapture the magic that once brought them to the top of the sport.

Fernando Gonzalez has made a few attempts at launching a comeback since returning to Tour last April post hip surgery, some more successful than others. He beat Alexandr Dolgopolov last year at Wimbledon and made the quarters in Buenos Aires. But the former world #5 has mostly struggled against the top players and has yet to break back into the top two hundred. He comes to Miami, his fourth event of the season, as a wildcard and first meets fellow veteran Nicolas Mahut, so he'll have to be willing to fight 'til the death if this is going to be his true return.

Kim Clijsters, post-retirement, post-motherhood and post-some of her biggest successes on Tour, has seen some action already this year -- she made the semis in Brisbane before retiring to Daniela Hantuchova and beat Caroline Wozniacki (again) in the Melbourne quarters. But she didn't play at all in February and pulled out of Indian Wells with a persistent ankle injury. Now ranked #37 in the world, the 2010 champ in Key Biscayne isn't seeded this time around, and faces a resurgent Jarmila Gajdosova in her opener. It shouldn't be too big a struggle, but could be a true test of how ready she really is to compete at this level again.

Like both these athletes James Blake has battled more than a couple ailments during his career -- from not-uncommon injuries to Zoster and a near career-ending neck injruy. He'd just been regaining momentum after missing most of the 2010 season with a chronic knee injury, ending last year back in the top sixty. But he pulled out of the Australian Open to get continued treatment and had a dismal return in Memphis, winning just two games off Ryan Sweeting in the first round. He'll look to make a more successful showing this week in Miami, where he'll meet also-on-the-mend Nikolay Davydenko, who notched his best performance this year as a semifinalist in Rotterdam. Blake has a perfect 7-0 record against the Russian, though, and if history stays on his side he might just be able to improve that record.

Longer gone from the game has been Venus Williams, absent from the singles Tour since last year's U.S. Open, where she announced her battle with Sjorgren's Syndrome. She did notch a doubles victory for the U.S. in their Fed Cup first round, though, but the dead rubber holds much less pressure than a Premier event which she won three years in a row at the start of her career, and even reached the final in just 2010. Despite her advancing age and her injuries and illness, she's still a formidable force for any opponent, of course. And against uber-veteran Kimiko Date-Krumm in her Miami opener, it will clearly be a battle between two of the most persistent and long-lasting players out there. I can't imagine she won't put up a fight that proves she's not to be counted out.

Unlike all these players -- each of whom has been a pro for over a decade and launched multiple comebacks throughout their careers -- Alisa Kleybanova was dealt one of the most devastating blows early in hers. After a breakthrough 2010 which brought her titles in Kuala Lumpur and Seoul, and took her to the final in Bali, she reached a career-high ranking at #20 in the world last February. With wins over Flavia Pennetta, Francesca Schiavone and Vera Zvonareva, she was poised to make a big run into the elite. But diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma in the middle of the season, she missed half the year while she sought chemotherapy and, certainly less important, saw her ranking drop to #248. The twenty-two year old Russian makes her return this afternoon, facing Sweden's Johanna Larsson in the first round. It almost doesn't even matter what her chances are or whether she even wins a game -- but the fact she's playing proves she might just be the biggest fighter out there.

It's a fact of life in this sport that athletes -- even the top ones -- will have to fight their way back from the brink, maybe multiple times in their careers. And as some try to get in one last shot, and others hope to resume the success they had not so long ago, it's a testament to all their strength and courage that they step on the court one more time.

And everyone, I'm sure, will be rooting that it's not the last time they do.

Where Things Get Interesting...

Well this is hardly the women's quarterfinal we were expecting to see in Melbourne.

If you thought Kim Clijsters would have survived the rematch of last year's final with Na Li, you probably didn't think she'd have to save four match points to do it. If your money was on Maria Sharapova to stage her Grand Slam comeback, you might have given up hope after she lost six games in a row -- and a two-break lead -- against Sabine Lisicki in their first set last night. If you didn't think Serena Williams was going to win the whole thing, you probably at least thought she'd still be standing today, even if she'd had to "upset" seventh seeded Vera Zvonareva in the round of sixteen.

As it stands now only two of those three remain in the draw, and the battles everyone has been through could mean we're in for even more surprises.

Of course, the big surprise in this year's play has been the emergence of twenty-three year old Ekaterina Makarova, once ranked as high as #29 in the world but for now out of the top fifty. After upsetting my black horse Kaia Kanepi in her opener, she went on to take out Zvonareva in the third round and then, to the shock and awe of the tennis world, drubbed Serena on Monday, breaking the American's big serve five times.

You might think she'd be exhausted by now, that she has to run out of steam eventually, and against veteran countrywoman Sharapova in the next round, she'll surely be done for. But Makarova's only title, Eastbourne in 2010, came when she beat five top-twenty players in a row -- after she'd already battled through the qualifying rounds. So she's certainly capable of pulling off a few more, especially with a day of rest in between. Still, you have to like Sharapova's chances in the next round. Though she was put to the test Monday, ultimately her experience helped pull her past the big-hitting Lisicki, and with the draw now much more open for her, she now has a tremendous opportunity to return to the winner's circle here.

She'll probably have to contend with her Wimbledon vanquisher Petra Kvitova first, though. The Czech, who has the #1 ranking in her sights, has been playing more consistently than anyone this past week, and after a small hiccup against Carla Suarez Navarro in the second round she has never looked back. She'll meet the other Cinderella of this tournament in the quarters, Sara Errani. Though the Italian's only met one seeded player on the way to her first even Major quarterfinal, she staged a huge comeback against Sorana Cirstea in the third round and soundly defeated 2010 semifinalist Jie Zheng early Monday -- she might be able to put up just as big a fight against the heavy favorite.

The other half of the draw has played out much more according to plan. Victoria Azarenka and Aggie Radwanska both efficiently worked through their matches, setting up the only quarter where the expected seeds survived. The Belarusian is the on-paper favorite, and with a 6-3 record against the eighth seed, she has history on her side. But Radwanska did beat her next opponent on the way to her title in Tokyo last year, so anything is possible.

All of that maneuvering, though, may have opened the door widest for current world #1 Caroline Wozniacki, dogged for the better part of the last year for holding the ranking while going noticeably Slam-less. Yes, she next faces defending champion Clijsters in her quarterfinal match, a woman she's never beaten and only taken one set from. But after the veteran's tumble on Sunday, one which nearly lost her the match, Wozniacki is arguably the more fit of the two. And if she can move even slightly better than her far-more-experienced rival when they meet Tuesday, she might very well cause the non-paper upset -- and given the way her half of the draw has unfolded, that could be a ticket right to her second Major final.

So it sure looks like Serena's early exit has really wreaked havoc on the women's draw in Melbourne -- it may let some old hands rise back to the top, or it could give the new guard a chance to shine. But it won't be the only factor which determines this year's champion. If any of these ladies play their cards right, it could mean a big breakthrough.

Australian Open: Draw Analysis

It's that time of year again -- just a day or so away from the first Grand Slam of the year, and we're all scouring the drawsheets to see how easy, or how hard, our favorite players will have it over the next two weeks. There will of course be many challenges along the way, but there may be a couple opportunities too. And this year, I'm going to try to give you a heads up as to where the biggest surprises are likely to come from -- quarter by quarter.

The Men First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

The Women First Quarter Second Quarter Third Quarter Fourth Quarter

---

The Men

First Quarter

Defending champion Novak Djokovic returns to Melbourne as the on-paper favorite, and if your votes are any indication, he's the sentimental favorite as well. He didn't exactly end 2011 the way he started it, though, going one-for-three in London, failing even to get out of the round robins. But the two-time winner in Australia should have an easy first couple rounds this year -- he kicks off against world #108 Paolo Lorenzi, and the highest ranked opponent in his immediate section of the draw is only twenty-ninth seed Radek Stepanek.

That's not to say things will be easy in Nole's quarter. David Ferrer leads the bottom half of this bracket -- straight off his second title in Auckland, the Spaniard looks to improve on his semifinal showing from last year. He had a strong end to 2011 too, beating both Djokovic and Andy Murray at the year-end championships and surviving a nail-biting five-setter against Juan Martin Del Potro in the Davis Cup final. His biggest challenge early in Melbourne may come from Juan Ignacio Chela in the third round, but still look for Ferrer to live up to his fifth seeding, at least in the first week

One of the most interesting potential matches ups lies in this quarter too. Andy Roddick should play wildcard Lleyton Hewitt in the second round -- neither veteran is playing at the top of his game, though the American is holding onto the fifteenth seed. In the decade-plus they've played each other, they've had some classic matches, but after losing their first seven meetings, Roddick has won the last six. It would be interesting to see what time has done to their rivalry.

There could be some other surprises lurking here. Janko Tipsarevic, coming off the best year of his career, is pitted against tough-as-nails Dmitry Tursunov. The Russian's on the comeback trail, but seemed to be getting back in the swing of things when last season ended. And Mikhail Youzhny, just out of seeding territory, could cause some upsets the first week, while Milos Raonic, last year's standout here, is back in form and could easily outperform his ranking.

Who'll survive? Odds are on Djokovic battling through the challenges, but watch for Raonic giving him a hard time in the fourth round.

---

Second Quarter

It's weird that I never really give the 2009 champion in Melbourne much consideration at the start of the year, but Rafael Nadal looks healthy enough to cause some damage here, and he has a pretty good draw with which to do it. First up is qualifier Alex Kuznetsov, and then the possibility of a fun second round against gorgeous Tommy Haas. Tomas Berdych, in the top half of this part of the bracket, hasn't been as impressive as he was a few years back, so at least the technical threats for Rafa are pretty low.

That doesn't mean we won't be in for some fireworks, though. Donald Young, who beat a couple seeds at his last Major in New York, is one of those guys likely to take his anger at losing the first round in Auckland and transform it into big things here. He faces another qualifier Peter Gogowcyzk, and potentially Ivan Ljubicic, but very well could be the Cinderella third round opponent for Nadal.

The section right above them is even more interesting -- John Isner, Feliciano Lopez, David Nalbandian and Nikolay Davydenko all headline. Also keep an eye out for Marcos Baghdatis, who defeated Juan Martin Del Potro in Sydney, and under-the-radar tenth seed Nicolas Almagro, who drew a rematch of his Roland Garros first round against Lukasz Kubot, a match which lasted five sets and nearly four hours. All these guys are big talents, capable of putting up long, grueling battles, so if they don't tire each other out early, any of them could pose a threat down the road. Otherwise, we might be in for some long nights.

Who'll survive? Watch the grunts do the dirty work during the first week, allowing Nadal to emerge relatively unscathed this quarter.

---

Third Quarter

Four-time champion Roger Federer might be breathing a sigh of relief -- after pulling out of Doha, only the second time he's ever withdrawn from a tournament in his career, I was a little worried he might not be able to continue the streak with which he ended 2011. But with a opening round match against Alexander Kudryavtsev and a second round against either world #92 Andreas Beck or #96 Eric Prodon, his first few days in Melbourne should be relatively routine.

There are more interesting early match-ups in this quarter, though. Jurgen Melzer, in the top ten just a year ago, will meet big-serving Ivo Karlovic to start -- he's won all four of their previous matches, but the Croat is certainly one capable of causing upsets. And Fernando Verdasco, one-half of one of the best matches ever played here, drew hometown favorite Bernard Tomic, one of those upstarts primed for a big run at a Slam. It might be a tougher start to his 2012 Melbourne run than the Spaniard wants.

But potentially the biggest spoiler here will be Juan Martin Del Potro, slated to meet Mardy Fish in the fourth round and, should he make it through, Federer in the quarters. The Argentine is the eleventh seed here, but we all know he's capable of much better. After missing much of 2010 with injury, he didn't make much of a dent in the Majors last year, but he's been improving his game quietly and, though he still holds losing records against both these opponents, he might be able to surprise us.

Who'll survive? If I were betting real money, I'd go with Roger, but since I got nothing riding on this, let's have a little fun and help Del Potro pull through.

---

Fourth Quarter

After his title in Brisbane -- and his end to 2011 -- big things will be expected from last year's runner up Andy Murray. It's a little unfortunate (for Americans, at least) that he drew young up-and-comer Ryan Harrison in the first round. Harrison's had some good showings at the Majors -- he beat then world #17 Ivan Ljubicic in the 2010 U.S. Open -- but has also had some tough luck -- Marin Cilic last year in New York, Robin Soderling in Paris -- and hasn't been able to make another breakthrough. And the way Murray's playing these days, it looks like Ryan will have to wait a few more months to have his next one.

The bigger threat to the world #4 will come later in the tournament. Gael Monfils, who's somehow never made it past the fourth round here, is one of those sleeper threats and has the potential to meet Murray before the first week is out. After beating Rafael Nadal in Doha, he's got confidence on his side, and could push through this time around.

And don't forget Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, clearly a contender for the Greatest Momentum award. After making the finals in Paris and London, he took the title in Doha earlier this month. His early rounds shouldn't present too much trouble, with his most immediate on-paper challenge coming from Marcel Granollers, the twenty-sixth seed in Melbourne. Though the Spaniard did have a nice run to take the Valencia title in November, he's much more a threat on a different surface, so the Frenchman shouldn't be worried.

There's the potential for some fun first rounds here. Viktor Troicki meets veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero to open, and though the Spaniard is probably on the tail-end of his career, he's always capable of surprising us. And Michael Llodra and Ernests Gulbis, neither a seed, both have the potential to do big things. The Latvian, still recovering from injury it seems, has more talent than he's shown recently, and if he's in form could cause his own share of upsets.

Who'll survive? Murray's the favorite, of course, but something tells me this could be Tsonga's year to shine.

---

The Women

First Quarter

Caroline Wozniacki held onto the #1 seed and #1 ranking in Melbourne by the slimmest of margins, and with the wrist injury she sustained in Sydney putting her performance here in question, it'll be a shock if she keeps it by the time February rolls around. Still, she was gifted a bit of a breather early in Melbourne. First round opponent Anastasia Rodionova only won more than two main-draw matches at two events last year, and though Anna Tatishvili, my pick for player to watch this year, could cause some problems as a potential second round, the Dane should be able to get through.

Last year's runner-up Na Li has a slightly tougher opener against Ksenia Pervak, last year's winner in Tashkent. Currently ranked #40 in the world, the Kazakh might be able to pull through in Melbourne. An even bigger challenge looms a few rounds later, with Kim Clijsters, Li's vanquisher last year, her most likely fourth round opponent. Kim retired from her semifinal in Brisbane, but is one of those players that doesn't lie down quietly, so she should outperform her #11 seed.

Kim might face a rematch with Daniela Hantuchova -- the woman who benefited from her injury two weeks back -- in the third round here. Often a spotty player, the Slovak is showing signs of strength already this year, having followed up her Brisbane showing by defeating Roberta Vinci and Francesca Schiavone in Sydney. I don't expect her to cause an upset, but she might be able to put up a much better fight this time.

But also keep an eye out for Christina McHale's, pitted against feisty Lucy Safarova in the first round. This is a tough one for me, since I'm a fan of both ladies, but McHale has proven she's a tough contender at the Majors, and might be able to put some chinks in the Czech's armor if given the chance.

Who'll survive? I'd love to see Caro prove all her detractors wrong, but if it comes down to a battle between her and Clijsters in the quarters, there's little chance Kim will let her get by.

---

Second Quarter

World #2 Petra Kvitova hasn't lost a lot of matches recently, and though she fell short of claiming the top spot when she fell in the Sydney semis, she's still one of the favorites here. She should have an easy first round against Vera Dushevina, but have a little more trouble against one of 2011's top newcomers, Irina-Camelia Begu a match later. Still, with her first seeded threat coming from Russia's Maria Kirilenko, there isn't much in the Czech's way during the first week.

U.S. Open champion Sam Stosur has an ever-so-slightly tougher road. Opening opponent Sorana Cirstea is well off her best ranking, but still might be capable of causing an upset. And Nadia Petrova, Stosur's potential third round, is somewhat inexplicably still seeded here, but she gave Sam a big test in New York -- she might be out for revenge this time around.

The most interesting contender in this quarter, though, might be unseeded Jie Zheng, a winner in Auckland last week and a semifinalist here two years ago. She faces off against young American Madison Keys to start, and has a couple easy early rounds. I wouldn't be surprised if she gave Stosur a big run for the money in their potential fourth round.

Who'll survive? Petra's got the #1 ranking in her sights, and a trip through this quarter would do a lot for her to get there.

---

Third Quarter

This is a tough quarter, with a lot of tricky players in the mix. Victoria Azarenka, fresh off a win in Sydney, has been playing some solid ball the last few months and should have a ton of confidence at this, her best Slam. She faces off against England's Heather Watson to start, but has a potential third round against upstart Mona Barthel, the surprise champion in Hobart, where she beat the fifth, fourth, second, and first seeds as a qualifier. The twenty-one year old jumped twenty spots up the rankings to #44, and if she hasn't exhausted herself, might be up for a few more upsets in Melbourne.

Aggie Radwanska could also cause some trouble. The winner of three titles in the back half of last year, she also made the semis in Sydney, after coming back from a deficit to defeat Wozniacki in the quarters. She's got a potentially tough opener against Bethanie Mattek-Sands, and a second round versus young Simona Halep, who's been known to cause a few upsets in her day.

Again, there could be some surprises early here. Hobart finalist Yanina Wickmayer faces Galina Voskoboeva, a woman who beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova in Toronto and made the final in Seoul last year. And Julia Goerges, down a few ranking spots from her peak last year, could have some trouble against spunky Polona Hercog in her opener. And Shaui Peng, the Cinderella story here last year, faces off against wildcard Aravane Rezai, once ranked #15 in the world. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of these matches resulted in an underdog run this year.

Who'll survive? I picked Vika to win this thing from the start, so she's got to at least win the quarter to do that.

---

Fourth Quarter

Maria Sharapova, the 2008 champion and top seed in this quarter, had a great rebound in 2011, but quiet since even before she withdrew from the year-end championships in Istanbul, I'm not sure anyone picks her as a favorite for this title. And with a first round match against Argentina's Gisela Dulko, who actually beat her two years back in the Wimbledon second round, things will be tough from the start. And Vera Zvonareva, the second seed here a year ago, has fallen a few spots since. She's matched with Alexandra Dulgheru, who upset Petra Kvitova last year in New York -- it's not the easiest start to Bepa's Melbourne run.

It only gets harder from there. Kaia Kanepi, the surprise winner in Brisbane, has had momentum on her side for a couple months now. She should pose a big threat to Bepa in the third round. And five-time champion Serena Williams, who is only seeded twelfth here, should have no trouble creating a rematch of their Wimbledon final from two years back.

But this quarter wouldn't be complete without a couple spoilers. Shahar Peer isn't seeded in Melbourne, and might be able to take advantage of an injured Sabine Lisicki in her second round or spotty Svetlana Kuznetsova a match later. The Russian, for her part, could face a challenge from late-bloomer Chanelle Scheepers in their opener -- the South African is just out of seeding territory and after winning her maiden title last year in Guangzhou at the age of twenty-seven, she might be ready to do some bigger damage here.

Who'll survive? I'd love to give it to one of the sleepers, but experience and strength is on Serena's side, and I can't imagine her letting this one go.

---

So it certainly looks like it's going to be a tough road for whoever ends up winning this crown -- it is, after all a Grand Slam, and you want your champions to earn it. But with potential for more than a few surprises throughout the draws, nothing is yet certain, and if any of these matches live up to their potential, it sure looks like we're in for an exciting two weeks.