From Out of the Blue

Paris has long been considered a place where magic can happen, and that may be no place where that's more evident than on the courts of Roland Garros.

For the last half decade, five ladies have claimed their first Grand Slam titles here, some of them coming fom seemingly out of nowhere to do it. And today, unseeded and relatively unheralded Barbora Krejcikova became the latest one to do it.

First Kiss 😘#RolandGarros | @BKrejcikova pic.twitter.com/lYBFblTWtZ

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 12, 2021

It's not that the 25-year-old Czech has been completely off the radar, but until last September almost all of her successes had come on the doubles court. A paired titleist with Katarina Siniakova at the French Open and Wimbledon in 2018, and a runner up in Melbourne this year, she's picked up eight titles in that specialty over the years and reached #1 in the world in those rankings.

And while she remained in triple digits on the singles side of things, it was on these very courts last year that she began her ascent. A win over compatriot -- and fellow doubles standout -- Barbora Strycova in the second round and a resurgent Tsvetana Pironkova in the third got her to her first Major sweet sixteen, which she lost to that event's breakout, Nadia Podoroska. The run, though, helped her climb to #85 in the world and, with a semifinal in Linz and a runner-up finish in Dubai, she's continued to climb. A title in Strasbourg literally the day before play started at the French -- her first ever solo crown -- put her just outside of seeding territory.

And the streak didn't stop there. After dropping her opening set in Paris, she went on to take the next nine, with straight set victories over the likes of fifth seed Elina Svitolina, 2018 runner-up Sloane Stephens, and Parma champ Coco Gauff. She faced match point against Maria Sakkari in the semis, but powered through to reach the final in one of the unlikeliest of performances.

In Saturday's final she faced Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, another player who'd taken her time to reach this level. A three-time Junior Slam titleist, and a runner-up in the French Girls' draw in 2006, she made the quarters in Paris in 2011 but couldn't get out of the third round since. She was just barely seeded for this event, but pulled off wins just as impressive as Krejcikova's, stunning Aryna Sabalenka, one of my favorites for the trophy, Victoria Azarenka, and her Serena-slaying doubles partner Elena Rybakina on the way. It took her a record 52 tries to make her first Major final, and as the relative veteran in the final, seemed in a good position to take home the title.

But Krejcikova had other plans. She ran away with the first set in about half an hour and, though things see-sawed in the second with Pavs able to rebound and force a decider, it was the on-paper underdog able to draw first blood in the third. After what had been a lop-sided start, it was encouraging to see things stay so close at the end, and while the Russian was able to save a couple championship points on her own serve, ultimately Krejcikova was able to serve it out and win the ultimate prize.

That makes it a pretty nice three weeks for someone who'd only ever reached one singles final before this year. And, to further sweeten the pot, she's got a shot at picking up another doubles title with Siniakova tomorrow. She'd be the first person since Mary Pierce in 2000 to go home with both trophies. But win or lose Sunday, she's certainly proven the breadth of her talent over the last few weeks.

And while this win may seem to have come from nowhere, it's exactly that talent that'll help Krejcikova stick around for some time to come.

Some New Blood

With the quarterfinals for this year's Roland Garros now set, you might notice more than a couple newbies in the mix.

The women's draw, shredded from the start, has just two players remaining who've ever reached the final eight at a Major before, and only one of those still standing is ranked in the top fifteen. And while most of the favorites have survived so far on the men's side, outside Nole and Rafa, even the top seeds have relatively little experience this deep into a fortnight.

And all that might mean the fireworks have only just started.

The Women

2️⃣2️⃣ sets and counting 🙌@iga_swiatek keeps her streak alive while battling to victory over Kostyuk 6-3, 6-4 and claims the final slot in the QFs.#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/PTUVu2Wxdq

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2021

We already knew things were going to be interesting on the ladies side of things, which so many withdrawals, upsets, and retirements in the early days, but that just makes the consistent performances we've seen so far that much more impressive. Defending champion Iga Swiatek, somehow the most accomplished of the bunch at just twenty years of age, pulled off a strong win today against eighteen-year-old Marta Kostyuk, who rode her first round upset over former titleist Garbiñe Muguruza all the way to the fourth round in a pretty impressive run. Meanwhile, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the relative veteran of the group -- she's not even thirty yet! -- has made it back to the quarters in Paris for the first time in a decade. But everyone else is charting new territory.

I've already extolled the performance of Elena Rybakina, who rebounded from a sluggish start to the year to pull off the biggest win of her career in the fourth round, dismantling Serena Williams as she went for that still-elusive 24^th Grand Slam title. And I've also been a big cheerleader for Paula Badosa -- with her title in Belgrade and a win over 2019 French runner-up Marketa Vondrousova in the last round, she's now riding a nine-match win streak and could be hard to beat. But there's also Maria Sakkari, the highest ranked first-timer, who ousted last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin earlier today. She's had trouble backing up one big win with another, but she'll be trying to change that against Swiatek in the next round

But we can't count out Tamara Zidansek who is having a true coming out party in Paris. About 30 spots off her career high ranking at #85 in the world right now, she's never made it out of the second round of a Major, and though she did manage a nice run to the Bogotá final, I wasn't giving her much of a shot here. But she followed up a first round upset of sixth seed Bianca Andreescu with wins over Serena's Parma slayer Katarina Siniakova and Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea. She's certainly the on-paper underdog, but we should know better than to count her out.

And, of course, there's the match I might be most excited for -- seventeen-year-old Coco Gauff, the youngest woman to reach a Slam quarter in fifteen years -- Nicole Vaidisova, on these courts -- will take on Barbora Krejcikova, whose won a couple of Major doubles titles but has only even entered a handful of singles draws, in a battle of players riding nine-match win streaks. Gauff has a huge opportunity here -- her win over Ons Jabeur helped secure her a spot on the U.S. Olympic Team, while Krejcikova, who followed up an upset of fifth seed Elina Svitolina with a win over a resurgent Sloane Stephens, could get revenge for a doubles loss to Coco in Miami this year. But with a spot in her maiden semi on the line, it's great to see two unexpected superstars really stand out.

The Men

Rafa ❤️ Chatrier#RolandGarros | @RafaelNadal pic.twitter.com/bGsXJCouA6

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 7, 2021

Things went a little more according to plan on the men's side, but that doesn't mean a total lack of drama -- or of fresh faces. Nineteen-year-old Lorenzo Musetti looked experienced well beyond his years when he took the first two sets off Novak Djokovic earlier today before losing steam and retiring in the fifth set, and fellow Italian teen Jannik Sinner got off to a strong start against Rafael Nadal, but the king of clay was able to do what he always does best to pull out the win.

The two favorites will take on two relative newcomers to the later rounds of Slams. Matteo Berrettini, whose ability to deliver I questioned for so long has happily proven me wrong, taking the title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. He got a little lucky with Roger Federer withdrawing before their fourth round match, but that extra rest could help him against a tested Djokovic. And Diego Schwartzman, who's turned around his clay court season in a big way, has yet to drop a set in his first four matches. Whether that gives him a shot at repeating his Rome revolution against Rafa -- well let's just say it's good to see him winning again.

The real surprise for the men has come in the bottom half of the draw, which, with the only Grand Slam titleholder in it eliminated in the first round, seemed to hold a huge opportunity for the next generation's leaders to breakthrough. And they've admittedly done well so far -- my favorite for the final, Stefanos Tsitsipas, is alive and well, dropping just one surprising set so far to John Isner, while Alexander Zverev has thrived after surviving an opening match scare and even Daniil Medvedev has found his footing on clay.

The standout, though, has been 21-year-old Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who's become a bit of a dark horse over the last few months. Outside the top fifty at the start of the year, he beat Berrettini in the second round of Monte Rome and took out Grigor Dimitrov in Rome. Playing just his third main draw in Paris, he stunned Casper Ruud, one of my favorites to go far, in the third round and followed it up with a win over sleeper Federico Delbonis. He's lost both his previous matches to Zverev, but whatever happens in the next round, this could set the stage for a lot more to come in his career.

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Maybe we shouldn't be so surprised that so many twists and turns have come out of the French Open. But it's truly encouraging to see so many players breaking new ground over the last ten days. For the women, there's an unprecedented opportunity to claim a first Grand Slam title. For the men, while the odds still lie with the most decorated of the bunch, we're really going to see which next gen star has what it takes to step up.

And there's no better stage than this on which to do it.

When Numbers Lie

There's been a lot of debate over how the ranking system in men's and women's tennis has worked post lockdown and since play resumed last April. I've long raised an eyebrow at Ashleigh Barty's continued presence at the top despite having played precious few events over the past year -- and, admittedly, I've been chasten when she does well at the ones she does enter.

And while I agree with the initial premise -- that players shouldn't be punished for doing the prudent thing by not traveling during a pandemic -- the ultimate system doesn't seem to have worked out exactly right -- after all, why should Marketa Vondrousova get to keep 2019 French Open final points when she did make the return trip in 2020 and lose in the first round?

But perhaps there's no better indication of flaws in the system than the case of Garbiñe Muguruza.

🏆 First title of the season
3️⃣ Final appearances so far
🔝 Tour leader in match wins this year

A strong start to 2021 for @GarbiMuguruza! 🇪🇸#DDFTennis pic.twitter.com/iHyZtY7yB9

— wta (@WTA) March 13, 2021

The 27-year-old Spaniard struggled through the back half of 2019, winning just one match after the French Open and dropping out of the top thirty for the first time since 2014. But she really turned things around to kick off last year, knocking out three top ten players to make the final at the Australian Open. That helped her climb back to #16 in the world, but despite a more-than-solid run, she's barely been able to budge in the rankings since.

And there's plenty of reason she should be higher. Here's a list of some of what Muguruza's accomplished this season alone: she got revenge for last year's loss in Melbourne, beating Sofia Kenin in straight sets at the Yarra Valley Classic; she was the only player to get a match point against Naomi Osaka at the first Major of the year, only barely losing to the eventual champion in the quarters; inexplicably unseeded last week in Doha, she survived a nail-biter against once-unstoppable Aryna Sabalenka on her way to the final; she repeated the feat this week in Dubai, and also scored wins over Iga Swiatek, Elise Mertens, and quickly-rising Barbora Krejcikova. And in her third final of the year, she was able to walk away with the title, her first since 2019 and her biggest in four years.

That gives her eighteen wins already this season, more than any player, man or woman, and puts her second only behind Osaka in the singles race. But for her efforts, she still won't crack the top ten on Monday -- seems strange when players like Bianca Andreescu and, yes, Ashleigh Barty, remain seemingly ensconced there.

Of course, things are slowly getting back to normal and those protected points will eventually start to be shed. And Muguruza will be more than ready to fill in the gaps when they do. After all, there's nothing more intimidating than someone playing well above her ranking. And this girl seems gunning for a return to the very top.

How It Started...How It's Going...

We are in the final stretch of 2020's very strange and sadly abbreviated tennis season, with the last events before the year end championships wrapping up this week. And given everything we've seen over the last ten-plus months, it should be no surprise that things look very different now than they did then.

Sure, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal are still at the top of the men's game, but we've seen precious little action from the elite ladies, whether due to injury or COVID-related restrictions. And some players who hit the ground running in 2020, from Tennys Sandgren to Elena Rybakina, have quieted down quite a bit post-lockdown. On the other hand, there are a couple others who are really starting to hit their stride in the back half of the year and are really making an effort to close out 2020 with a bang.

Let's start with the ladies in Linz, where top seeded Aryna Sabalenka is looking for her second trophy in as many tournaments. After that crazy come-from-behind victory in the Ostrava quarterfinals, she's been almost unstoppable, today crushing Stefanie Voegele in straight sets. It's a nice reversal from what might not have been a tragic start to the year, but nonetheless saw her upset by Kristyna Pliskova and Dayana Yastremska as well as a first round loss in Melbourne.

But she's not the only standout. Barbora Krejcikova, long at the top of the doubles game -- she won both the Roland Garros and Wimbledon titles in 2018, had floated in the triple digits on the singles scene for years. But cracked the top hundred after making the fourth round in Paris. She's been dealt a pretty nice draw in Austria, with Greet Minnen taking out third seeded Yastremska in the first round and her next opponent Aliaksandra Sasnovich beating eighth seed Bernarda Pera for her. If she keeps her form, she might just be able to make a play for the semis, and set the stage for more successes in the new year.

Even more impressive, though, has been the continued rise of Argentina's Nadia Podoroska, someone few of us had ever heard of a month ago. Spending most of her time on the ITF circuit, she started the year #234 in the world, down from a peak of #157 back in 2017. But fresh off a title in Saint-Malo, she rode from the qualifiers to the semifinals at the French Open, beating Yulia Putintseva and Elina Svitolina on the way -- Krejcikova, too, by the way. In her first appearnce since that Cinderella run, she's now ranked in the top fifty and holds the sixth seed, and so far she hasn't disappointed. She opened with a win over veteran Irina-Camelia Begu and today came back from a set down to beat Camila Giorgi. She'll next face Ekaterina Alexandrova, another standout this year, so it's not all smooth sailing. But I sure would like to see her keep her momentum going strong.

There have been some nice showings from the men in Sofia as well. Veteran Vasek Pospisil is well off his career high ranking of #31, hit back in 2014 -- he'd falling out of the top two hundred last year -- and started the year qualifying for Auckland and losing his opener in Melbourne. He made a nice run to the final in Montpellier in February, though, helping him get back to double digits, and when the tour restarted was able to reach the fourth round at the U.S. Open -- his best Major showing in five years. This week he stunned Jan-Lennard Struff in the second round and earlier today ousted Nur-Sultan champion John Millman in straight sets. He'll face fellow vet Richard Gasquet for a spot in the final, but he's met tougher challenges before.

But the real breakout of this event, and maybe of the year, certainly seems to be 19-year-old Jannik Sinner, who started the year at #78 in the world. The Italian took a little time to find his footing, losing early in all his pre-lockdown tournaments and even on the U.S. hardcourts. But he really, maybe ironically, found traction on the clay, stunning Stefanos Tsitsipas in Rome and an ailing Alexander Zverev at the French to make his first Grand Slam quarterfinal. Now in the top fifty, he just missed getting a seed in Sofia, but hasn't yet seemed fazed, coming back from a set down to take out third seed Alex de Minaur earlier today. He'll take on Adrian Mannarino in the semis and I kind of like his chances not just for that win, but maybe for the title.

Of course this year has been hard on all of us, even those seeing the most success now. But hopefully these guys will be able to keep up their momentum on the other side of this pandemic. And maybe they can give us the inspiration we need to turn things around for ourselves, too.

Wide Open Spaces

We're now at the point in a Grand Slam when, if things had gone exactly according to plan, we'd have gotten rid of all the qualifiers and wildcards, everyone would have beaten an oppenent only if they were ranked lower than them, and we'd be left with a draw that pitted one seed against another.

Of course, things never go exactly as planned, and this year at the French Open, a couple early upsets and literal luck of the draw seem to have created some big swaths of land that could allow some unexpected players to run free.

Let's start with the men, who admittedly have a much narrower path than the women, but who nevertheless have created a couple opportunities. The bottom quarter of the draw may be the most open, with the early exit of Daniil Medvedev and today's stunning loss by my semifinal pick Denis Shapovalov at the hands of world #101 Roberto Carballes Baena. While Hamburg champ Andrey Rublev and sith seed Stefanos Tsitsipas remain real threats here, someone like Marton Fucsovics, who beat Medvedev, might be able to take advantage. He made the fourth round in Australia this year, and with his next match against Thiago Monteiro, he's got a good shot of at least matching that. He'd likely face Rublev a round later, and while their only previous meeting was three years ago when Rublev was a much less formidable foe, it was on clay, and he did win. It did also go five sets, but at the very least this could be a nice fight.

Fewer favorites have survived the second quarter of the men's draw, and while one of those still standing is twelve-time champion Rafael Nadal (who, I'm told, has never lost a match at Roland Garros when seeded second), that doesn't mean all hope is lost for the others. Qualifier Marco Cecchinato stunned the world two years ago when he beat Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals here, and while he's since dropped out of the top hundred, his performance over the last week or so may suggest he's back on track. He opened with a win over Alex de Minaur and then took out Juan Ignacio Londero in four sets. He'll be tested by U.S. Open finalist Alexander Zverev in the next round, of course, but the German had to battle through a four-hour five-setter in the last round and could be taken advantage of.

Things could get even more interesting for the ladies, where a couple sections have opened up wide. Patricia Maria Tig, who'd lost her first round match in four of the five Majors she'd played before Paris -- she lost in the second round of this year's U.S. Open -- quietly won her first career title on the clay of Istanbul while the rest of us had our eyes glued on New York. She hasn't had to do anything spectacular yet -- her last opponent took care of Karolina Muchova and her next one, Palermo titleist, dispatched Elena Rybakina -- but with Sofia Kenin struggling a bit, she may not have to for a few rounds yet.

And then there's 2017 champion Jelena Ostapenko, who before this year had never won a match at the French before or since that title run. She seemed to be getting her form back last week in Strasbourg, though she was broken six times in her quarterfinal match against Nao Hibino, but a decisive straight set win over second seeded Karolina Pliskova today could be what she needs to really get her confidence back. The now twenty-three year old will next face Paula Badosa, who also got the better of 2018 runner-up Sloane Stephens today, and with my very meh pick Petra Martic lurking in this section, I could see either of them surviving a few more matches.

Serena Williams has withdrawn from #RolandGarros with an achilles injury. pic.twitter.com/u6vGa9JCkX

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) September 30, 2020

But perhaps the biggest opening was created in Serena Williams' quarter (actually, I guess, Elina Svitolina's quarter) -- not necessarily because the American was a favorite to win here (as we know this is her worst Slam), but because of all the other craziness that happened there. Yes, the top half of this section is stacked -- the only non-seed there is Caroline Garcia, who is hardly an underdog -- but the bottom half is wide open.

Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who first hit my radar with a win over Venus Williams here in 2014 and stunned red-hot Victoria Azarenka yesterday will face Nadia Podoroska who, ranked #131 in the world, had never won a match at a Major before this week, but really got under the skin of Yulia Putintseva in their second round. And U.S. Open feel-good story Tsvetana Pironkova, the immediate beneficiary of Serena's withdrawal, will take on doubles specialist Barbora Krejcikova, who beat Barbora Strycova in the second round. It just seems incredible that one of these long shots is guaranteed a place in the fourth round.

Then again, isn't that what's so great about sport? And in a year like the one we've seen, it's those stories that can really stand out for the good -- whether they're comebacks or breakthroughs, it's great to see new talent shine -- and maybe just give us all something to celebrate.