On Solid Ground

I admit I haven't been the biggest believer in Ash Barty over the last year, and a lot of that has been because I wasn't really paying attention back in 2019 when she had her breakthrough. It felt like her French Open title, which came without facing a single player in the top ten, was a bit of a one off. And the fact that the altered ranking rules allowed her to keep her #1 ranking at the end of last year after not playing since February just added to my confusion.

Of course that ignored the rest of her accomplishments two years ago -- her first big trophy in Miami, where she beat three top ten players, her WTA Championship to close out the season, four titles in total and another two finals to boot. And while some players have been able to hold onto 2019 ranking points even when they tried and failed to defend them last year, Barty hasn't really gotten a chance to prove those successes weren't just flukes.

That is, until she came back to Miami.

Still the top seed, the twenty-four year old got off to a bit of a shaky start, facing match point against qualifier Kristina Kucova in her opener before powering through for the win. And that wasn't her only test -- in a roller coaster fourth round against three-time champ Victoria Azarenka, Barty went three lopsided sets in just under two hours, and she was pushed to a decider again yesterday in the quarters by Aryna Sabalenka.

Nevertheless, she's still alive and kicking and, now into the final four in Miami, has her first real opportunity to back up her 2019 run.

For a spot in the championship match, of course, Barty still has to get through world #5 Elina Svitolina, who can be spotty at times and has suffered some surprising losses in recent months, but she too has passed some tough tests over the past week and will be hungry for a big title of her own. She has a 5-1 record against Australian, too, which could give her some confidence. At the very least, this could be biggest test yet of whether Barty deserves to stay at the top.

The defending champion moves on!@ashbarty is into the #MiamiOpen semifinals once again 😄👋 pic.twitter.com/AyAiCf1hB9

— wta (@WTA) March 30, 2021

In a similar situation to Barty is young Canadian Bianca Andreescu, who likewise was MIA last year after a breakthrough 2019. Ranked out of the top 150 at the start of that season, she had to qualify for the Australian Open, but really hit her stride in the spring, stunning the world with a title in Indian Wells and going on to win the Rogers Cup and the U.S. Open, beating Serena Williams in the final -- technically, in both finals.

But unlike Barty, her ensuing absense was due to injury rather than travel restrictions and lasted several months longer. That could explain why she's struggled a bit more in her comeback, going three sets in four of the five matches she played before Miami. And while the fact that I watched what she can do a little more closely during that run in New York makes me a little more forgiving of her remaining near the top of the rankings, you have to feel her meteoric rise could make her place there a little more tenuous.

Still, she's done well to prove her mettle over the past week. After a fairly straightforward win over Tereza Martincova in her opener, she edged out American Amanda Anisimova, who's had a complicated few months to say the least, in a thriller and then took out Garbiñe Muguruza, one of the strongest players of the season so far, in another tight one.

In today's last quarterfinal, Andreescu will take on unseeded but spectacularly impressive Sara Sorribes Tormo -- she won her first career title at the start of the month in Guadalajara and in Miami has already defeated Aussie runner-up Jen Brady, Elena Rybakina, and 2020 standout Ons Jabeur. Making the semis would by far be the biggest accomplishment of the Spaniard's career, and if the favorite is at all off her game, this could be an opportunity to pounce.

Whatever the case, it sure feels like last year's comeback stories have finally found their footing for the not-so-new-anymore season. And how they perform over the next few days will go a long way to proving their place. That's not to say a loss would derail everything, but a few more wins now sure would be extra sweet.

Golden Swing Glory

Admittedly I've been a little remiss in covering the action going on in Latin America over the last few weeks, but there have certainly been a lot of performances there worthy of some shoutouts.

From Sara Sorribes Tormo winning her maiden title over a resurgent Genie Bouchard last week in Guadalajara, to Cristian Garin ending his 2021 losing streak with a title in his hometown of Santiago, to -- who can ignore -- the standout runs from the Cerundolo brothers, the younger of whom made history by winning a title as a qualifier at his very first tour-level event in Córdoba.

REMEMBER THE NAME: Juan Manuel Cerundolo

The #NextGenATP 🇦🇷 defeats Ramos-Vinolas 6-0, 2-6, 6-2 to win the @CordobaOpen in his ATP Tour main draw debut! 👏 pic.twitter.com/cp2QB0t7Ti

— ATP Tour (@atptour) March 1, 2021

And this week's results in Mexico have been just as noteworthy.

I'll start in Monterrey, where a wide open field, not to mention early losses from top seeds Sloane Stephens and Nadia Podoroska, has allowed a couple of up-and-comers and under-the-radar stars to really shine. Unlike so many players who quickly lose their momentum after a big breakthrough, Sorribes has kept her winning ways going, opening with a defeat of Lesia Tsurenko and then getting a pass when Kaja Juvan pulled out of their second round. She'll next face sub-hundred-ranked Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who stunned Victoria Azarenka last year at Roland Garros and is looking for her first title since 2018. Either stands a good chance of making a nice run here.

But they're not the only ones. My perennial favorite Leylah Fernandez still hasn't had her big breakthrough, but with Sorribes the first seeded player she'd face at this event, she could rack up a good amount of confidence to make her move now. And of course there's Aussie standout Ann Li, the Cinderella finalist for the Grampians Trophy who reached the third round at the Open. The only other seed in her half of the draw is world #52 Saisai Zheng -- not someone that should be taken for granted, but certainly an opponent she's capable of beating.

The stakes might be a little higher in Acapulco, where three top ten and seven top twenty players are contesting the title. And while top seeds Stefanos Tsitsipas and Alexander Zverev are still both alive and well, here too there could be some surprises. Cameron Norrie, who stunned Dan Evans in the first round of the Australian Open this year, got a solid straight-set win over a back-on-the-rise Fabio Fognini in the second round, while Dominik Koepfer, a surprise quarterfinalist in Rome last year, is making some headway on the hardcourts after taking out Milos Raonic last night. One of those two will earn a spot in the semis and could make good on the opportunity.

And of course there's young Lorenzo Musetti, still ranked in the triple digits but still high on everyone's radar. Another standout in Rome -- he beat Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori before losing to Koepfer -- he got a win over his first ever top-ten opponent, ousting Buenos Aires champ Diego Schwartzman in the first round. He backed up the victory with another three-setter against Frances Tiafoe and will meet Grigor Dimitrov for a spot in the final four. And while the one-time world #3 may be a formidable challenge, he's not quite playing his best ball and could give the teenaged Italian an opportunity to advance.

It's always encouraging to see players start to make moves during this part of the season. Of course the question is whether success south of the border will translate into big wins on the bigger courts. But we've seen some promising signs over the last few weeks, and any of these guys could surprise us down the road.

Back From the Brink

You know that phrase, "Down, but not out"? Well, we sure saw a prime example of that this week at the inaugural J&T Banka Ostrava Open in the Czech Republic.

Third seeded Aryna Sabalenka was trailing 0-6, 0-4, 40-Ad in her quarterfinal match against Sara Sorribes Tormo on Friday and somehow found it in her to rally for the next twelve games, not dropping a single one of them and coming out the winner under the unlikeliest of circumstances. And for those who thought she might be too spent from that effort to go any further -- I admittedly count myself in that group -- she was happy to prove us wrong, not only recovering to win her semifinal a day later, but going on to crush recent standout Victoria Azarenka with a straight set win in today's title match. And, if that weren't enough, she teamed up with Elise Mertens to win the doubles crown in Ostrava too.

Sealed with an ace! 🔥@SabalenkaA defeats fellow 🇧🇾 Azarenka, 6-2, 6-2.#jtbankaostravaopen pic.twitter.com/iHXOpnMgCG

— wta (@WTA) October 25, 2020

It ended up being a redemption tour of sorts for the 22-year-old Belarusian. Not only did she avenge her second round U.S. Open loss to Vika on Sunday, but a few matches earlier she'd also rebounded, this time from a 1-6 first set against Coco Gauff, her vanquisher in Lexington, to manage that win as well.

But it will likely be that quarterfinal match that Sabalenka is better remembered for, rivalling even the epic turn of the tables Varvara Gracheva pulled off against Kiki Mladenovic just a few weeks ago. It's encouraging that Sabalenka was able to play more consistently in later rounds, but the streakiness of that one match certainly presents some questions -- not to mention what it says for Sorribes, who was a point away from a 5-0 lead in that second set before she was dismantled.

Sabalenka is, after all, one of the more powerful players on tour. Two years ago she caught my eye with her performance during the U.S. hardcourt season, where she picked up her maiden title in New Haven and put together his still-best Major performance with a run to the fourth round in New York. A few weeks later in Wuhan, she beat Elina Svitolina, Sofia Kenin and Ashleigh Barty on her way to a second career trophy. She beat Barty again in defending that title in 2019, and this year has wins over Simona Halep and Petra Kvitova to boot. But she's also been on the losing side of some surprising scorelines, upset by Kristyna Pliskova, Jessica Pegula, and a now in-recovery Carla Su´rrez Navarro.

But perhaps that quarterfinal marked a turning point not just for this tournament, but for Sabalenka's career. If she can prove she's more like the player we saw since then than the one before, it's going to be hard for her rivals to compete and she could not only make herself a more consistent feature of the top ten but become a real contender for the big titles. We haven't yet seen a deep run from her at the Majors, after all, but maybe that will change in the new year.

And, at the very least, we'll all know never to count her out.