Dropping Like Flies

It's been a dramatic start to the French Open this year, both on and off the court, and day after day it's seems we're hit with one more exit we weren't expecting. And whether it's because of physical or mental form, that's left some gaping holes in the women's draw.

Of course the big news was the withdrawal of Naomi Osaka on Monday -- after the bold decision not to participate in press conferences at the event, she pulled out of Roland Garros and said she was taking a break from competition entirely. The move brought into focus the mental health of athletes in a way that hasn't been done before, and whether or not you agree with the way everything was handled, here's hoping she comes back stronger and fitter in more ways than one.

But it wasn't just Osaka's early departure that rocked the brackets. Petra Kvitova, who ironically injured her ankle on the way to her own first round press conference, had to withdraw on Tuesday, and earlier today top seed Ashleigh Barty, one of two defending champs on the ladies' side, stopped her match short due to a nagging hip problem. Combine that with Simona Halep's pre-tournament bow out and losses by Bianca Andreescu, Karolina Pliskova, Belinda Bencic, and Garbiñe Muguruza and more than half of the WTA's top thirteen are missing from Round 3.

Feel better, Champ.

Just hours into play on Day 5 and there is plenty to catch up on. Get the latest on Barty's retirement and other action around the grounds.👇 #RolandGarros

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 3, 2021

So the question then becomes, of course, who benefits most from all this? The obvious answers are last year's French finalists, Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin, the latter of whom was desperately looking to turn around her year and has done so so far, with wins over 2017 champ Jelena Ostapenko and qualifier Hailey Baptiste. She'll face a challenge from fellow American Jessica Pegula in her third round, though, so any potential comeback could be stopped short soon.

But there are others, too.

Barty's exit makes Elina Svitolina the highest ranked player left in her quarter, and with an easy win over a talented Ann Li today, she's playing at a level that could help her go far. She will face a challenge in her next match though, as Strasbourg champ Barbora Krejcikova is now riding a seven match win streak she'll be loathe to give up. And Coco Gauff, who just reprised her Parma final win over Qiang Wang today, might be breathing easier now that she won't face Barty in the fourth round. She still has to get past Aussie runner-up Jen Brady, who beat her last year in Lexington, but on this surface I'm giving the teen the edge.

A little more under the radar is Sloane Stephens, the 2018 runner-up in Paris, who lost her first four matches to kick off the season. She seems to have gotten her footing back on clay, though, reaching the quarters in Charleston and the semis in Parma. In her early days here, she won an emotional first round against a retiring Carla Suarrez Navarro and earlier today pulled off that big upset over Karolina Pliskova. While Melbourne standout Karolina Muchova will be a much tougher challenge in the next round, despite the fact that she's still ranked lower than the former world #1, I'm encouraged by Stephens' return to form and wouldn't be too surprised by an upset.

In the bottom half of the draw, where things were wide open from the start -- Osaka, after all, may have been seeded second, but she had never gotten past the third round in Paris -- we have some more potential beneficiaries. One surprising one may be Elena Vesnina, who here won her first singles match since giving birth in 2018, dropping just one game in her first round. She was scheduled to face Kvitova yesterday, but instead will meet a struggling Elena Rybakina in the third round tomorrow, a wholly winnable match that could get her to her first ever fourth round at the French.

Less of a long shot to go far, though, is Paula Badosa, the barely-seeded but red-hot Spaniard who's made at least the semis of every clay event she's played this year. She's one of just two seeds left in her quarter -- 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova likely looms in the fourth round -- and while there are some big hitters still left -- Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea, Serena's Parma vanquisher Katerina Siniakova, to name a few -- you have to like her chances to get at least to the semis.

And of course there's Aryna Sabalenka, trying to get past the fourth round at a Major for the inexplicably first time in her career. A final in Stuttgart and a title in Madrid have given her a solid foundation for this clay season. And while she's got potential match-ups against Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams in her future, it seems she is well on course to break the seal and make it to the next level.

So with two rounds in the books, there's certainly a lot of opportunity to make a big statement, and with the stakes so high, you know everyone's eager for it to be them. All that remains to be seen is who is willing and able to step up to the plate.

French Open 2021 Preview: Round by Round

It's been just over seven months since we crowned the last king and queen of Roland Garros, and yet, on the eve of the 2021 French Open it somehow feels like it's taken such a long road to get back.

After all, it's been a dramatic clay court season, with surprising upsets, stunning statements, and pretty impressive breakthroughs.

Rafael Nadal has proven he is not invincible on clay. Perennial powerhouse Simona Halep had to withdraw due to a calf injury. And for the first time, possibly in history, we have two defending women's champions back to keep their win streaks here going -- and they've both made pretty good cases for themselves.

As the draws shake out, we have the opportunity to see some fierce match-ups, and the surprises could start coming right at the get go. So here's a look at some of the possibilities and the potential battles that could really make things interesting at Roland Garros this year.

And, as with the last time, I'm essentially resetting the draw after each pairing -- someone who had to be eliminated for one match to take place may show up later in another one. It's only because there have been so many standouts this season that there's no other way to cover it all.

So let's dive right in.

THE WOMEN First Round Second Round Third Round Fourth Round Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship

THE MEN First Round Second Round Third Round Fourth Round Quarterfinal Semifinals Championships

---

WOMEN'S DRAW

Barty takes the lead!

🇦🇺 @ashbarty d. 🇵🇱 Swiatek 7-5#MMOPEN pic.twitter.com/O4gizncm8A

— #MMOPEN (@MutuaMadridOpen) May 3, 2021

First Round

Aryna Sabalenka (3) vs. Ana Konjuh (Q): Well this is a tough first round for both players. The heavy favorite Sabalenka is at a career-high ranking and is pretty fresh off picking up the biggest title of her career in Madrid. She also made the final in Stuttgart and, of course, has been putting one of the strongest win streaks out there. But...she has never made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam. Konjuh, meanwhile, made the quarters at the U.S. Open years ago, and after a long recovery from injury is finally back in form. She scored wins over Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek in Miami and successfully pivoted to clay with a final run in Belgrade. Still at #144 in the world -- she was sub-300 in Miami -- she had to fight through qualies to get here, but she could put up quite the fight against someone many consider a potential champion.

Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Last year's runner-up opens her point defense against 2017's recently resurging champion, and I'm not sure I like her chances. Kenin has struggled with injury and form and has only won one match since the Australian Open. Meanwhile, Ostapenko is coming off a quarterfinal showing in Rome. But the young American has a new coach and has shown that she's more than capable of shaking off bad losses. Still, this one is going to be close.

Carla Suarrez Navarro vs. Sloane Stephens: CSN's farewell tour was disrupted first by COVID and then, tragically, by cancer, but she's back for one last hurrah at Roland Garros and all sorts of sentiment is one her side. It's hard to tell what condition she'll be in (though her social profile suggests she's in fighting form), but she'll certainly face a challenger at the outset. Suarrez's first round opponent is the 2018 runner-up in Paris, and while Sloane famously rides a roller coaster in terms of performance, she may be on the upswing -- she made the quarters in both Charleston and Parma, with wins over favorites both times. Still, the Spaniard, twice a quarterfinalist here, has had some career-defining wins over the years, and hopefully has a few more left in her.

Veronika Kudermetova (29) vs Amanda Anisimova: The on-paper favorite has had a strong year, with a run to the final in Abu Dhabi and her maiden title in Charleston. It's bad luck that she'll open her campaign here against 2019's surprise semifinalist. But it's been a tough two years for the young American -- after suffering the death of her father during her breakout year, she kicked off this season with a COVID diagnosis and an ankle injury and she's struggled to gain traction ahead of her return to Paris. Still, at only 19, she's probably got a lot of room to surprise us, and she's beaten much more formidable opponents on these courts before. If she's playing at her best, this one could be a battle.

Second Round

Bianca Andreescu (6) vs. Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Q): The former U.S. Open champ doubled her 2019 win record on clay with her performance in Strasbourg. Unfortunately, that means she still only has two wins on the surface this year. She cut her run short last week to take care of an ab injury, and she'll be tested pretty quickly on the big stage. MCOS, after all, has been racking up wins this season -- the 19-year-old picked up her first title as a wildcard in Bogota, made the semis the next week in Charleston, and picked up in Europe with a run to the semis in Belgrade. That got her into the top hundred -- not soon enough to have her avoid qualifying rounds, but she breezed through those without dropping a set. She's faced Andreescu what feels like years ago, in the final of an ITF event in Oklahoma, and only won one game, but something tells me things will be different this time around.

Serena Williams (7) vs. Arantxa Rus: Rus has had some huge wins on big stages over the years, stunning then-#2 Kim Clijsters at Roland Garros in 2011 and then-#5 Sam Stosur at Wimbledon a year later. But that was a long time ago, and she really never came to much after that. She did upset second seed Jessica Pegula this past week in Strasbourg, though, and came OHSOCLOSE to beating Williams last year in "Cincinnati" too. Could she seal the deal this time? Possibly -- as Serena continues to go for that elusive 24^th Major, she's hit one roadblock after another, and she hasn't really found her footing on clay this year. She'll put up a fight, of course, but everyone should know by now that she's far from invincible, and if both these ladies make the second round, Rus certainly has a shot at an upset.

Garbiñe Muguruza (12) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo: I was all aboard the Sorribes bandwagon in the early spring -- the 24-year-old was impressive in her run to a maiden title in Guadalajara and even more impressive in her quarterfinal fight against Bianca Andreescu in Miami. Strangely, for a Spaniard, she's been a little quiet on clay. Her compatriot, meanwhile, was the champion here five years ago and is a far better player than her ranking suggests. It's a tough early round for both, but one that could spark some fireworks.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (32) vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Krejcikova is a decorated doubles star, with a couple Major trophies over the years -- she and Katarina Siniakova won both the French and Wimbledon in 2018 and were runners-up in Melbourne earlier this season. But she's really started gaining traction on the singles scene over the last few months, making the fourth round in Paris last fall and the final in Dubai in March. But Alexandrova is no slouch either -- she beat Simona Halep and Iga Swiatek in the Gippsland draw to start the year -- and I'm perennially shocked to see how "low" her ranking is. These two have met twice already this year, with the seed getting the win at the Australian Open and Krejcikova pulling off the upset this past week on her way to the title in Strasbourg. Given the surface, I wouldn't be surprised to see that outcome play out again.

Third Round

Naomi Osaka (2) vs. Paula Badosa (33): This is where things get interesting. Osaka isn't the best player on clay -- she's never made it out of the third round here, and she lost early in both Madrid and Rome -- and her draw got a whole lot harder on Friday with the withdrawal of 27^th seed Alison Riske. That's because it elevated Belgrade champion Paula Badosa into seeding territory, and the red-hot Spaniard already has wins over Ashleigh Barty and Belinda Bencic on clay this year. Badosa had before been in the Sabalenka/Serena quarter, but even as the lowest seed things are looking a lot better for her now, and if she can pull of a win here, it might be hard to stop her until the semis.

Jennifer Brady (13) vs. Coco Gauff (24): Brady may be the more seasoned player here, and she may have some impressively deep showings at the most recent Slams, but this is a whole new court, and Coco's been the one grabbing all the headlines on it. A semifinal run in Rome and not one but two titles in Parma brought her to a career high ranking of #25 in the world, and a couple wins here will certainly drive her even higher. Of course, this match-up is not a sure thing -- Gauff could face Melbourne Cinederella Su-Wei Hsieh in the second round, while Brady may have to get through clay specialist Fiona Ferro herself. But if they both make it, I feel like the edge goes to the younger phenom.

Nadia Podoroska vs. Sorana Cirstea: This potential battle would require a couple upsets early on -- Cirstea opens against 2019 French semifinalist Johanna Konta, while 2020 French semifinalist Podoroska will start her point defense against tenth seed Belinda Bencic. But there's plenty of reason to believe both can pull off the wins. Cirstea, a one-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros -- twelve years ago! -- has her groove back after a title in Istanbul and a second place finish in Strasbourg, while Konta has only scored three match wins this year. And Podoroska, who stunned Serena Williams in Rome, could easily get the better of a recently-spotty Bencic. In any case, I'm excited to see these two face off and can't even begin to pick the favorite.

Fourth Round

Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Karolina Muchova (18): Svitolina is a solid clay court player and has had a lot of success on the courts of Paris, making the quarters three times. But while she's had some decent wins this year -- Petra Kvitova in Miami and Stuttgart, Garbiñe Muguruza in Rome -- she hasn't really had a standout moment in a little while. After all the upsets at the French last year, she was for a brief moment a favorite for the title, but then got crushed> by Nadia Podoroska in the final eight. Muchova, on the other hand, had her coming out party a few months ago, beating Karolina Pliskova and Ashleigh Barty on the way to her first Slam semi in Melbourne. And about a month ago she beat Naomi Osaka en route to the Madrid quarters. She's slated for a rematch with her compatriot, a three-time finalist in Rome, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her make another attempt at a deep run now.

Petra Kvitova (11) vs. Danielle Collins: Collins may only be ranked #50 in the world, but she is no slouch on clay, having reached the quarters last year with wins over Ons Jabeur and Garbiñe Muguruza along the way. She's had some big successes this season too, taking out Karolina Pliskova at the Yarra Valley Classic and Ashleigh Barty in Adelaide. But she had to undergo a pretty harrowing surgery for endometriosis last month and hasn't been seen on court in a while. She says she's playing without pain and more consistently now, though, which could make her an even bigger force than she usually is. While she might have to get through Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams first, she could very well set up a showdown with last year's semifinalist at the end of the first week. Kvitova is one of those consistent favorites, though, and always seems to up her game when you least expect it. I imagine this could be a fun one.

Maria Sakkari (17) vs. Jessica Pegula (28): Sakkari is one of those players I really want to see big things from, and she gets so close to making that happen so often. Last year she pulled off a massive win over Serena in "Cincy", but lost the next round; this year she stunned Naomi Osaka in Miami, and again dropped a match later. Pegula, on the other hand, has had a little more follow through, even when she's a far bigger underdog. After stunning Victoria Azarenka in the first round of the Australian Open this year, she went all the way to the quarters. Then as a qualifier, for some reason, in Doha she made her way to the semis. And while she did lose to Sakkari in Miami, she followed up a win over Osaka in Rome to make the final eight there. Seeded at a Slam for the first time, she might have to make it past last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin first, but if there's one thing we should know about Pegula by now, it's that she's more than capable of pulling off one upset after another.

Petra Martic (22) vs. Shelby Rogers: Not that long ago I wouldn't have given Martic a second glance, but the 2019 quarterfinalist here, coached now by former French champion Francesca Schiavone, seemed invigorated in her run to the semis in Rome. But Rogers has made the quarterfinals in Paris before too, and she'll want to avenge her loss to Martic in the first round in Rome. It won't be easy for either of these two to get the rematch -- Martic is slated to face Garbiñe Muguruza in the third round, while the American could run up against the defending most-recent champ Iga Swiatek even sooner -- but it'll be interesting if they're able to make it.

Quarterfinals

Serena Williams (7) vs. Victoria Azarenka (15): Okay, okay, I know, this one's a long shot. Neither of these ladies has been playing her best recently, Serena getting upset in both Rome and Parma, while a persisent back injury forced Vika to pull out of matches in Melbourne, Doha, and Madrid. But, for old time's sake -- not event that old -- let's just say they're able to return to form again. I mean, remember that match last year in New York? Wouldn't it be fun to see that again? And if anyone can pull off the comeback, it's these two.

Elise Mertens (14) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (Q): Okay, now we're talking about long shots, but hear me out. Mertens has been one of the most under-the-radar but consistent players on tour the last several months, reaching at least the quarters in ten of her last 15 tournaments and picking up a title in Gippsland too. On clay she beat Veronika Kudermetova in Istanbul and Simona Halep in Madrid, so you know she's comfortable on this surface. Schmiedlova, meanwhile, may be far removed from the career-high ranking she hit half a decade ago, but with a win over Azarenka here just last year she's more than capable of an upset or two. Can she, as a qualifier, make it all the way to a quarterfinal? Well she's got some big obstacles in her way, starting with Iga Swiatek in the third round and Garbiñe Muguruza one after that. But what fun would sports be if we didn't get a few surprises?

Semifinals

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Iga Swiatek (8): It doesn't happen very often that you have two simultaneously defending champions at a Major, but as COVID kept Barty from traveling to Paris last fall, Swiatek was able to gloriously take up the mantle in her absense. Their only previous meeting in the fourth round of Madrid was disappointingly straightforward, with the earlier titleist getting the win in straight sets. But while the world #1 has a field-leading 13 wins on clay so far this season, the younger Swiatek stormed back onto our radars with a trophy in Rome and seems primed to make a potential second meeting a little closer -- and possibly raise the bar for how two champions should compete.

Championship

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (3): There is a lot that can happen over the course of the next two weeks, but it seems fitting that the two winningest players this season could face off in another final. They already split their title contests in Stuttgart and Madrid, so why not add Paris to their rivalry? I admit, I've been skeptical about Barty's staying power in the past, but she's really proven she's deserving of that #1 ranking. Sabalenka may have a little more work to do, though -- despite a career-high ranking and a long and impressive win streak, she's never gotten out of the fourth round of a Major. And with a tough first round here she'll be tested off the bat. But in a half that's really wide open, I'd expect something big from her now.

---

MEN'S DRAW

😋🏆😁@RafaelNadal #IBI21 #tennis pic.twitter.com/eM3Goky9pi

— Internazionali Bnl (@InteBNLdItalia) May 17, 2021

First Round

Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Alexander Bublik: I'll save the complaints about Medvedev's second seeding for later, but regardless, there's no doubt he's had one of the strongest twelve-month stretches out there. Still, he's not a fan of the clay -- something he's made very clear over the past few months. He's one just one of three matches on the surface the year -- and has a barely better record for his still-young career -- and has never won a round at Roland Garros. It'll be hard to change that against the barely unseeded Bublik, a player I continue to believe is better than his ranking. The Kazakh isn't that much better on dirt, but he did manage to make the quarters in Madrid, with wins over Denis Shapovalov and Aslan Karatsev. Whether he makes a big statement here, I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get at least this upset.

David Goffin (13) vs. Lorenzo Musetti: The seeded Goffin has had a couple of pleasantly surprising results this year -- taking the title in Montpellier and stunning Alexander Zverev in Monte Carlo -- but outside of that, he's been pretty quiet. Nineteen-year-old Musetti, on the other hand, has continued to climb the rankings, making the quarters in Cagliari and the semis in Lyon. I'm kind of calling for the upset here, but what a confidence boost it would be if Goffin could get a win over this up-and-coming/already-arrived star.

Emil Ruusuvuori vs. Mackenzie McDonald (Q): McDonald is still well off his career high ranking, but a fourth round showing in Melbourne and a Challengers title in Nur Sultan have helped boost him a little. He still had to play qualies here, though, but made it through without losing a set. For his efforts, he gets a shot at the 22-year-old Finn whose name I had to learn how to spell after a solid defeat of Alexander Zverev in Miami. It's certainly a winnable match for the young American, but not one he should take for granted. And if he can pass the test, it could help launch him back where he belongs.

Second Round

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Federico Delbonis: Thiem is a two-time finalist here and a fairly-newly-minted Grand Slam champion, but a nagging knee injury has really hampered his effectiveness this year. While he managed a decent run in Madrid, he's been upset more than he's been winning. Delbonis, meanwhile, has been pretty active all spring, playing week in and week out, upsetting Pablo Carreño Busta in Spain, reaching the quarters in Rome, and this past week reaching the semis in Belgrade. He's never had a lot of success at the Majors, only made the third round once at the Australian Open five years ago, but this might be the best chance he's had in a while.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Sebastian Korda: It wouldn't be a Major if we didn't see at least a few popcorn matches right at the start, and this could be one of them. Twenty-year-old Korda has been slashing his ranking all year, reaching the final in Delray, the quarters in Miami, and this past week picking up his first tour-level title in Parma, ousting top seeded Lorenzo Sonego on the way. Tsitsipas, meanwhile, has two clay titles of his own this season, including his first Masters crown in Monte Carlo. The two have a huge opportunity here, in the half of the draw with just one Grand Slam title -- compared to the top half with fifty-nine combined -- and it's a shame that one will have to go home early. But you can be sure they'll both be battling to make sure they're not that one.

Lorenzo Sonego (26) vs. Cameron Norrie: The 26-year-old Italian is another one who's been climbing up the rankings in recent months. Since that miraculous win over Novak Djokovic last year in Vienna, he's gone on to win a title in Cagliari and score wins over Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem in Rome. Norrie notches his own upset of Thiem on his way to the Lyon final and also came in second in Estoril. He has yet to bring home that maiden title, but he's certainly finding his footing on the clay. The winner of this match will have a tough road ahead of him -- Rafael Nadal likely awaits in the third round -- but it certainly will make a case for potentially bigger runs over the year.

Third Round

Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (Q): Here's another potentially explosive early match-up. Rublev has followed up nicely on his breakthrough season, reaching the quarters of his last three Majors, picking up another title in Rotterdam, and absolutely stunning Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Alcaraz's successes have been on a much smaller scale, but a semifinal run in Marbella, a Challengers title in Oerias, and a perfect record in the Roland Garros qualies, gives him a nice winning streak coming into the main event. He'll likely face Munich and Doha champ Nikoloz Basilashvili in the second round, but sparks may really start to fly if he can set up the match with the top-ten Russian -- and it could give us a good taste of what the future of tennis will look like.

Diego Schwartzman (10) vs. Aslan Karatsev (24): This one pains me. After a late-in-his-career breakout, which included a win over Rafael Nadal last year in Rome, Schwartzman's been pretty quiet in 2021, losing his opening round four times. I am somewhat mollified by the fact that he did pick up a title in Buenos Aires and that his losses came against talented players, but it's still not a precedent you like to see. Karatsev, on the other hand, has been virtually unstoppable. Since his Cinderella run in Melbourne, he picked up his first title in Dubai and scored wins over Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and, yes, Diego Schwartzman. I wouldn't be surprised if things go his way again, but I'm hoping the Argentine is able to find his magic again.

Roberto Bautista Agut (11) vs. Kei Nishikori: It's been a long time since we've seen fan-favorite Nishikori at the top of his game, but this could be the best chance he's had in a while to make a statement at a Slam. At his lowest ranking in nearly a decade thanks to yet another battle with injury, he's still able to get the better of his opponents. He beat David Goffin in Dubai, Karen Khachanov in Madrid, and Fabio Fognini in Rome. RBA can't be overlooked though -- he's reached finals in Montpellier and Doha this year, beating Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem at the latter, and the semis in Miami, with a win over Daniil Medvedev there. But clay is weirdly not his best surface, which could crack open the door a bit for the man from Japan.

Jannik Sinner (18) vs. Albert Ramos-Viñolas: Sinner is another one of those youngsters quickly making a habit of beating top-ranked players. A quarterfinalist at the French last year, he won two titles to bridge the seasons and made a play for the big leagues with a run to the final at the Miami Masters. Ramos has been pretty busy himself, quietly amassing 17 wins on clay this season and claiming a title in Estoril to boot. He'll have to get past Gael Monfils in the first round, but with the Frenchman having only won match in the last year-plus, his bigger challenge will likely be against the wünderkind, and that one could be fun to watch.

Reilly Opelka (32) vs. Tommy Paul: It's easy to overlook the Americans on clay -- especially the men -- but these guys have been putting up some nice results over the past few weeks. Big-serving Opelka is coming off a run to the semis in Rome, where he took out Lorenzo Musetti and Aslan Karatsev, and could make a play to become the top-ranked man in the States. Paul is a little further down the rankings, but he pulled off some nice wins this past week in Parma, beating Jiri Vesely and Jan-Lennard Struff on his way to the final four. He's suppsed to face Daniil Medvedev in the second round, but as I've mentioned, that's not a guarantee -- nor is beating Alexander Bublik, to be honest -- but if he makes it, a battle against his countryman would give someone a little bit of bragging rights.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Arthur Cazaux (W): This one might take a little bit of doing, but it's not the craziest of thoughts. ADF has followed up nicely on his strong 2020 season, making the quarters in Monte Carlo and the semis in Estoril. And while likely second round opponent Hubert Hurkacz scored the biggest-yet win of his career in Miami, he's been less impressive on clay, winning just one match so far against world #171 Thomas Fabbiano in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Cazaux is playing his very first Major main draw -- he lost first round qualifying in Paris last year to Aslan Karatsev -- but he has scored wins this year over Sebastian Korda and Adrian Mannarino. And we know how well French wildcards can do at Roland Garros. Cazaux would likely need to get past super-surging Casper Ruud -- more on that later -- to set up this one, but stranger things have happened.

Fourth Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Marco Cecchinato: During those years I'd stopped writing and paying attention to every twist and turn in the tennis world, something very strange happened -- Novak Djokovic stopped winning Majors! After locking in the Career Grand Slam at the French in 2016, he went on a two-plus year stretch without earning another big title. And one of the biggest surprises during that run came at the hands of Marco Cecchinato, who stunned him in the Paris quarters in 2018. Then it was the Italian's turn to start losing -- eight straight Major first rounds as his ranking dropped back out of the top hundred. He may be getting back on track, though, reaching the final this past week in Parma. It's not crazy to think he might be able to engineer a rematch -- the first seed he'd face is Alex de Minaur, who's only ever won one match here, and the second is David Goffin, who might not make it even that far -- though expecting a repeat is probably a little less likely. Still, it'd be fun to see him try.

Roger Federer (8) vs. Matteo Berrettini (9): Now this one scares me. It's been over a year since we've seen Roger at a Major, and his performance since has been spotty at best. He drew the short end of the draw stick, with both Rafa and Nole in his half of the bracket, and the other Grand Slam champion in this section, Marin Cilic, is his probably second round opponent. Meanwhile, Berrettini has been suprisingly impressive of late, winning a title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. Fed has won their two prior meetings in 2019, but if the seedings play out as expected early, things may go differently this time around. And I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Quarterfinals

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Daniel Evans (25): Weirdly, it might be the lower-rated Brit that has the better chance of setting up this match. Evans, who kicked off this year with his first career title at the Murray River Open, may have scored the win of his career when he beat Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo. That certainly makes him more of a factor on a surface that's not traditionally his best. Thiem, though, who usually thrives on clay, has been a little more spotty post injury and has plenty of challenges on his route. So does Evans, of course, but if he survives, this one could be fun.

Alexander Zverev (6) vs. Casper Ruud (15): In an alternate universe Madrid champion makes good on his seeding, beating Evans in the third round, and Geneva titleist Casper Ruud, who also took out Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid, overcomes Thiem too, setting up what may, in the end, be a more likely quarterfinal. I begrudgingly admit Zverev has remained a force despite his off-court drama, and with some easy early rounds, should make it through relatively unscathed. And Ruud, who's sitting at a career-high ranking, is due for a Major breakout. There's no reason this can't be it for him.

Semifinals

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (3): It's not often that these two face off outside a final, especially at the French, so the fact that they're doing so now has plenty of people up in arms. After all, it's a pretty big injustice that Nadal is seeded third here -- sure, you can argue that he's had a quieter 12 months than world #2 Daniil Medvedev, but given the latter's obvious disdain for the surface -- and the former's dominance on it -- you'd think there could be some leeway. There are plenty of reasons for Rafa fan's to be nervous -- the last time he took on the Djoker before the final Sunday in Paris did not go his way, and he's been less than perfect this clay court season. Then again, so has Nole. And given how close their last meeting was, you know this one is going to be close. Whoever wins, though, if they're not completely spent from the battle, you have to think comes away with the title.

Championship

Rafael Nadal (3) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5): This pick may not be what the seedings predict, but given this clay court season it would be the most appropriate. Rafa, of course, will have to make it through a half which contains all of the Big Three, with a combined 58 Grand Slam titles between them -- adding in 2014 U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic makes it 59 -- not to mention a potential quarterfinal against Andrey Rublev, the man who beat him in Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas, on the other hand, with a season-leading 16 wins on clay this year, compared to Nadal's 14, has it relatively easy, with just one Major title in his half. He's never reached a final at this level though, falling just short at last year's French, but there's no question these have been the two best players on the surface this year. And given how close their previous matches have been, if they get a chance to play for this crown, you know it's going to be a good one.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Alexander Zverev (6): In another alternate universe, hearts are broken and justice is not served, but two very strong clay courters nevertheless reach the final. Djokovic made up for his slow start to the clay season, bringing home a title at the second Belgrade Open earlier today. And if there is anyone who'll be able to recover in time for a Slam, it's him. He doesn't often get the better of Nadal on these courts, but he's got what might be the best shot he's had in a long time this year. After all, he only barely lost the title to him in Rome, and that after a double header the day before. Zverev, meanwhile, has his own win over Nadal at a clay Masters and an arguably easier road to what woud be his second Slam final. If this is the championship we get, you know I'll be all in for Nole -- but Zverev seems destined for a trophy soon, and this might just be his time.

---

Well there you have it, the matches I hope or believe we'll see over the next two weeks at Roland Garros. Of course, we can't bank on anything at the Majors, and as much as we know we should never count out Rafa here, there are plenty of others ready to take up the mantle, and a lot more primed to make a big splash.

And as we kick off the second Grand Slam of the year, let's hope we can make it a good one.

Miami Heats Up

I can't be the only one a little surprised that the Miami Open kicked off as planned -- though, I suppose, with my dear James Blake in charge, I shouldn't be so shocked (💕).

And while the primary hope is that everyone there stays safe and healty amid the revelry, as the first premiere tournament since the Australian Open, there is also a lot of top notch tennis to look forward to -- with a slew of top-ranked talent, a couple players riding huge momentum, and even a few we haven't seen in a while.

hi 💙 @MiamiOpen pic.twitter.com/M0ppGzYNVt

— NaomiOsaka大坂なおみ (@naomiosaka) March 24, 2021

The Men

I'll start with the men's draw, which may be missing three of its top ive players, but nevertheless boasts some real firepower. Daniil Medvedev takes the court as the top seed, the first time he's hit the court as the #2 player in the world. He's never made it past the third round here, but he's a far different and much more formidable player than he was the last time he was in Miami. With a twenty match win streak that he rode all the way to the Aussie final and a title in Marseille just for good measure, he's certainly deserved his climb, and it's hard to see anyone in his immediate draw derailing him.

Of course, there are players who could surprise us in the top half. Lloyd Harris is coming off a run to the final in Dubai where, as a qualifier, he stunned Dominic Thiem in the second round, and then picked up upsets over three more players. Now at a career high of #52 in the world, he's still a real long shot to make any real play for the title -- but we might have said that about him last week too.

Also in this half of the draw is John Isner who -- meh. After a second round loss at the French Open last fall, he ended the abbreviated season due to injury and then pulled out of the Australian Open this year because of the COVID restrictions. (No comment.) We haven't really seen a lot of the 2018 Miami champion (he beat Alexander Zverev in the final, if you can believe it! -- in the past year, as he's only made it past the second round once. He'll open against qualifier Mackenzie McDonald, who did well to make the fourth round in Melboune last month, and while Isner may be the favorite, he's by no means a sure thing.

On the bottom half of the draw is a man who's had a much more successful 2020 season so far, and had to come out of the depths to do it. Aslan Karatsev, the surprise standout Down Under and brand new trophy-holder at 27, is suddenly ranked one spot ahead of Isner and is far and away at his career best. All eyes will be focused on how he performs now that we actually expect something from him, and while his first opponent, veteran Mikhail Kukushkin, has had some nice results this year, I imagine Karatsev will continue to prove his worth at least a few rounds in.

And finally on the men's side is Thanasi Kokkinakis, who played his first match since 2019 in February. The 24-year-old revealed his battle with anxiety and depression had made the game and life tough for him over the years, but it's nice to see him getting his feet back under him again -- he took Stefanos Tsitsipas to five sets in his homeland Slam's second round. Still ranked outside the top 200 -- a far cry from his previous high of #69 in the world -- he made it through qualies without losing a set and today beat another qualifier to set up a second round against Marton Fucsovics. The barely seeded Hungarian is certainly not one to be dismissed, but there will be a lot of people rooting for an upset here.

The Women

On the women's side, we've already seen some of the favorites in action and a couple have been tested. Top seed and inexplicable world #1 Ashleigh Barty is playing an event ouside of her native Australia for the first time since last February, and it's probably a good place to start. Her run to the title in Miami in 2019 was what set off that magical season that propelled her up the rankings, and what she does in her return will go a long way to quieting my doubts. She struggled in her opener, though, facing a match point against qualifier Kristina Kucova before pulling out the win. With players like Victoria Azarenka, Angelique Kerber -- who double bageled her own opponent today -- and, more immediately, a resurgent Jelena Ostapenko in her section, she's going to have to up her game if she wants to repeat.

Kicking off her run tomorrow will be Sofia Kenin, who followed up a second round loss in her Australian Open defense with a shocking defeat at the hands of then un-ranked Olivia Gadecki in Adelaide. She was nursing a leg injury in Melbourne and eventually had to undergo an apendectomy, so there are explanations for her upsets. Of course, now that she's recovered, we're going to want to see her step up. She'll face off against veteran fan favorite Andrea Petkovic, which will be a good test. The stage her performance sets for the rest of her season, of course, may not be clear -- we've seen her ride roller coasters before -- but a strong showing would still make a big statement.

Then there's Bianca Andreescu, who's only played this event one time in her short but prolific career, reaching the fourth round -- with wins over Kenin and Kerber -- right after her own breakthrough title in Indian Wells in 2019. Sidelined by injury for all of last year, she's had spotty results in her comeback but will try to turn things around against qualifier Tereza Martincova tomorrow. Of course the bigger challenges lie after that -- either former Roland Garros semifinalist Amanda Anisimova, who's had quite a string of bad luck this year, or one-time U.S. Open champion Sloane Stephens, who's had trouble putting together two straight wins recently, most immediately, and more later -- so we'll see what she's got soon.

Meanwhile, Jessica Pegula is coming to Miami at her career high ranking. She followed up her breakout run in Melbourne by making the semis in Doha, ridiculously as a qualifier, and the quarters in Dubai, absolutely dismantling former world #1 Karolina Pliskova in the process. She's barely seeded at this event, but we should be well aware of the damage she could cause. She'd likely face Pliskova again in the third round, but there's no reason to bet against her making at least the quarters. And for someone who's never won a main draw match here, that would be quite the triumph.

And finally there's Ana Konjuh, ranked #20 in the world four years ago when she was just 19, who's been pushed out of the top three hundred after one surgery after three others. She's been struggling to even qualify for events over the last few years -- her last main draw WTA win was back in 2018 -- but as a wildcard here she seem to be back with a vengence. Still just 23, the Croatian opened her run with a win over a very talented Katerina Siniakova and today notched her first top-twenty win in four years over Madison Keys. While she'll be a serious underdog against her next opponent, reigning French Open champ Iga Swiatek, hopefully her performance even thus far is a sign that she's truly on the comeback trail.

---

We're still in the very early days of this event, of course, and so much can still happen. But it's great to see so many players back on court. And what happens over the next week-plus could give them all a great opportunity to really shine.

When Numbers Lie

There's been a lot of debate over how the ranking system in men's and women's tennis has worked post lockdown and since play resumed last April. I've long raised an eyebrow at Ashleigh Barty's continued presence at the top despite having played precious few events over the past year -- and, admittedly, I've been chasten when she does well at the ones she does enter.

And while I agree with the initial premise -- that players shouldn't be punished for doing the prudent thing by not traveling during a pandemic -- the ultimate system doesn't seem to have worked out exactly right -- after all, why should Marketa Vondrousova get to keep 2019 French Open final points when she did make the return trip in 2020 and lose in the first round?

But perhaps there's no better indication of flaws in the system than the case of Garbiñe Muguruza.

🏆 First title of the season
3️⃣ Final appearances so far
🔝 Tour leader in match wins this year

A strong start to 2021 for @GarbiMuguruza! 🇪🇸#DDFTennis pic.twitter.com/iHyZtY7yB9

— wta (@WTA) March 13, 2021

The 27-year-old Spaniard struggled through the back half of 2019, winning just one match after the French Open and dropping out of the top thirty for the first time since 2014. But she really turned things around to kick off last year, knocking out three top ten players to make the final at the Australian Open. That helped her climb back to #16 in the world, but despite a more-than-solid run, she's barely been able to budge in the rankings since.

And there's plenty of reason she should be higher. Here's a list of some of what Muguruza's accomplished this season alone: she got revenge for last year's loss in Melbourne, beating Sofia Kenin in straight sets at the Yarra Valley Classic; she was the only player to get a match point against Naomi Osaka at the first Major of the year, only barely losing to the eventual champion in the quarters; inexplicably unseeded last week in Doha, she survived a nail-biter against once-unstoppable Aryna Sabalenka on her way to the final; she repeated the feat this week in Dubai, and also scored wins over Iga Swiatek, Elise Mertens, and quickly-rising Barbora Krejcikova. And in her third final of the year, she was able to walk away with the title, her first since 2019 and her biggest in four years.

That gives her eighteen wins already this season, more than any player, man or woman, and puts her second only behind Osaka in the singles race. But for her efforts, she still won't crack the top ten on Monday -- seems strange when players like Bianca Andreescu and, yes, Ashleigh Barty, remain seemingly ensconced there.

Of course, things are slowly getting back to normal and those protected points will eventually start to be shed. And Muguruza will be more than ready to fill in the gaps when they do. After all, there's nothing more intimidating than someone playing well above her ranking. And this girl seems gunning for a return to the very top.

A Chance to Rebound

Something kind of cool is going on over on Court 10 at Melbourne Park.

While play at the Australian Open remains in full swing, and a couple dozen men and women are still battling it out for the first Grand Slam of the year, some of those already eliminated -- some who were expected to last much longer in the main draws -- are back in action for a new WTA 250 event.

.@DKasatkina gets the round 1 victory over Boulter, 6-4, 6-2. 👏#PhillipIslandWTA pic.twitter.com/3VhGbKczxu

— wta (@WTA) February 13, 2021

It makes sense to get a little more out of the players when possible -- so many traveled halfway around the world, endured a strict quarantine with little opportunity to practice or rack up ranking points, only to lose their first or second match and, in another world, be sent packing. Sure, losing early is a risk you run at any tournament, but under these particular circumstances, it feels especially like a waste.

So many of the women who didn't make it to the second week of the Open are now vying for the Phillip Island Trophy, and while winning here may not be quite as fulfilling as bringing home a Major, at least there's a quick opportunity to rebound from their recent, sometimes crushing losses.

Former top tenner Daria Kasatkina has had more than a couple setbacks in her efforts to regain top form, but she's had some promising moments too. She beat seeded Polona Hercog last week in the Gippsland draw and a strong Elena Rybakina last year in Ostrava. She had chances in her second round against red-hot Aryna Sabalenka, getting an early break to start the match, but ultimately fell in straights. She kicked off her Phillip Island campaign with a second straight win over Katie Boulter and next faces comeback queen Varvara Gracheva. It's not out of the question to see her make a deep run.

Young Anastasia Potapova similarly looked strong early in her third round against Serena Williams on the big stage, getting a couple breaks in the first set and even an opportunity to serve it out. But she couldn't keep her level up after dropping the opener in a tiebreak and ultimately lost in straights. She proved she has talent, though, and could captialize this week -- she'll open against Rebecca Peterson, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the upset.

And then there's Danielle Collins, a one-time semifinalist in Melbourne and a quarterfinalist last year at the French. She'd already beaten sixth seed Karolina Pliskova at the Yarra Valley Classic, and I'm frankly surprised she wasn't able to do it again in the second round of the Open. She kicks off against either veteran Varvara Lepchenko or Nao Hibino, and is the heavy favorite against either.

Interestingly, though, things haven't got the way of the favorites so far. Sloane Stephens continues to struggle with form and after a loss to Yulia Putintseva at the Open, she lost her first round to Gracheva. And maybe more surprisingly, Nadia Podoroska and Anastasija Sevastova also dropped their first rounds.

But there's an opportunity for others -- Sofia Kenin, who failed early in her bid to defend her first Grand Slam trophy, takes on little-known Australian Olivia Gadecki on Sunday, while 2019 U.S. Open champ Bianca Andreescu, unable to handle a deep challenge from Su-Wei Hsieh as she tried to stage her own comeback, will open against Madison Brengle.

Can these ladies come back and show us what they're really made of? Well, this is as good a chance as any to do it. And if they can make some hay out of what's obviously a complicated situation Down Under, it might all be worth it.

Across Generations

There's been a lot said over the last several years, especially in the men's game, about when the long-dominant players will finally hand over the reins to the next generation of tennis greats. But if we've seen anything in the first few days of the Australian Open, it's that it's not only the Big Three who are unwilling to go yet softly into that good night -- and that there are some new young guns in the mix ready to take the spotlight from those we've been championing so loud.

What a performance 😱@KanepiKaia defeats Kenin 6-3 6-2 in just 64 minutes to continue a hot start to the summer for the Estonian 🇪🇪#AusOpen | #AO2021 pic.twitter.com/ZFuidJnVZC

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) February 11, 2021

I'll start with the result from last night (this morning...) that most perfectly pairs the two ends of the spectrum -- defending champion Sofia Kenin against veteran Estonian Kaia Kanepi. As I mentioned a few days ago, this wasn't a match I would've watched closely, but boy am I glad I did. The 35-year-old, coming off a runner-up finish in the Gippsland draw with wins over red-hot Aryna Sabalenka and Ekaterina Alexandrova, was a strong underdog in her second round, but you wouldn't have known it to watch her play. With ten aces, an eighty percent first serve percentage and more winners than errors, she needed barely an hour to score the win against the young American. And with a next round against a recently-struggling Donna Vekic, I like her chances to keep going. Whether she'll keep her momentum going, who knows -- this is the only Major where Kanepi hasn't reached the quarters -- but she's certainly hungry to give it a try.

Another veteran who showed his chops on Thursday, Feliciano Lopez is also well off his career high ranking, hanging out in the low double digits after peaking at #12 in the world six years ago. But if his 75 straight Grand Slam main draw appearances don't prove his continued relevance, perhaps his performance against 31^st seed Lorenzo Sonego does. Down two sets to the man who stunned Novak Djokovic just a few months ago, Feli found a way to rally and pulled out the last three sets in a match that lasted over three hours. In what will be his first third round in Melbourne since 2016, and the road only gets harder from here -- his next opponent, Andrey Rublev, has been on fire over the past year, and while he was tested in his second round, I imagine he'll come out swinging against the Spaniard. But if Lopez can recoup after his marathon last night, perhaps he can surprise us again.

Last among the under-the-radar Old Guard standouts is top doubles star Su-Wei Hsieh who, at #71 on the singles scene, was certainly expected to have her biggest successes when partnered up. But after what I thought was a pretty astounding win over 2020 Comeback Queen Tsvetana Pironkova in the first round, she took on 2019 U.S. Open champ Bianca Andreescu, who was playing her first event in some fifteen months, and was wholly on point. The 35-year-old, who's never made it past the fourth round at a Slam on her own, got off to a strong start against the Canadian, fifteen years her junior, and in under ninety minutes was able to capitalize on the rust that had accumulated after her long hiatus. She opens up Friday's play against qualifier Sara Errani, whose run to the French Open final in 2012 seems so, so long ago. While it won't be a walk in the park by any means, it's certainly a more manageable ask than what she's already battled.

Of course, it wasn't only the veterans pulling off big wins, and as at every Grand Slam we've already seen a peak of the talent that's still to come. Twenty-year-old Kaja Juvan, who beat Venus Williams last year in Acapulco and stunned Angelique Kerber in the first round of the French Open, was the top seed in the qualifying rounds for Melbourne and managed to advance without dropping a set. She got a bit of a pass in her opener against thirteenth seeded Johanna Konta, who was up a set but had to retire with an ab injury, and her second round against Mayar Sherif was filled with even more drama -- the exhausting two and a half hour plus match left everything on the floor for both players, but ultimately ended with the young Slovenian as the winner. She's not more challenges ahead, though, with a tough Jennifer Brady waiting for her in the third round. I'm not sure she'll recover in time, but I'm hoping her performance is a sign that we've only started to see what she can do.

And then there's Mackenzie McDonald who, at 25, admittedly isn't necessarily "young" anymore -- sorry, millennials -- but at least young in experience. Though he had a brief stint in the top sixty back in 2019 and even made the fourth round at Wimbledon the year before, he's had trouble staying consistent and currently sits just inside the top two hundred. But he has had some nice wins over the years -- my dear Juan Martin Del Potro in Delray Beach, Milos Raonic in Shanghai, and Borna Coric in the second round here on Thursday. It was his first top twenty-five win in quite some time and with his next round against Lloyd Harris, a man who went three hours in his five-setter against Alexei Popyrin in his last match, he might just be able to get the better of the sort-of-favorite. And a good showing there might help him set the stage for an even bigger year to come.

Australian Open 2021 Preview: Round by Round

Happy Australian Open Eve, everyone!

Are you ready? 🎾 🙌 🏆 #AusOpen #AO2021 pic.twitter.com/liezKJrbOx

— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) February 7, 2021

And as I've said ahead of any major-small-m event over the last several months, it's hard to believe we've finally made it.

Of course, a lot of questions still hang over this year's first Major-big-M, from how players will fare coming straight from a week of hard-hitting tune-up events, to what 30,000 people in the stands will look like post-lockdown, to what happens if someone else tests positive. But while we've already had some disruptions, things have so far generally progressed as well as we could have hoped. So maybe we might just come out of this in one piece.

Here's hoping so anyway.

And this year, I'm going to highlight what might be some of the most exciting matches we'll see in the first round ... and potential match-ups that could make for some real required viewing later down the line.

Of course, there's no telling whether these battles will truly come to be -- if my predictive skills from last year continue, most likely won't -- and I might highlight potential third rounds that completely obviate one of my fourth round picks.

I'm not going to commit myself to choosing a particular number of matches per round -- after all, while there can only possibly be one final pairing, there may be several I'd love to see. And while there will always be a slew of good fights in the middle rounds, I'll probably have trouble picking them out now. I promise not to go entirely by the seedings, but in some cases it will be nearly impossible to avoid. As with everything these days, it's all just a grand experiment.

So let's see how this goes, shall we?

THE WOMEN First Round Second Round Third Round Fourth Round Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship

THE MEN First Round Second Round Third Round Fourth Round Quarterfinals Semifinals Championship

---

WOMEN'S DRAW

As is often the case, the women's draw is wide open this year, and while there are certainly favorites, there's a lot of opportunity to shake things up a bit.

First Round

Elena Rybakina (17) vs. Vera Zvonareva: The 21-year-old Kazakh was one of the hottest players on tour at the start of last year, making the final at four of the first five tournaments she played, taking no time off in between. She slowed down a bit after the lockdown, and did lose her first match in the Grampians draw this year, so she could be vulnerable against the two-time Major finalist. Zvonareva made the third round at the Yarra Valley Classic, pushing former French Open finalist Marketa Vondrousova to three sets. This could be a chance for the veteran to make a big statement.

Elise Mertens (18) vs. Leylah Fernandez: Mertens is a sleeper at any event she plays, quietly making the quarters at the U.S. Open last year and taking the title at the Gippsland event this past week, beating Elina Svitolina on the way. A semifinalist in Melbourne back in 2018, she's more than comfortable on this court. But Fernandez is a rising star in this sport, with a win over Belinda Bencic and a couple versus Sloane Stephens in the past year. It's a shame one of these ladies has to lose early, but it sure will be fun to see who wins.

Karolina Muchova (25) vs. Jelena Ostapenko: The seeded Czech had a strong season in 2019, winning a title in Seoul, making the final in Prague, and reaching the quarters at Wimbledon. She was doing well at the Gippsland event too, but pulled out of her quarterfinal match with an injury. Hopefully she's recovered in time to make this one a match. After all, Ostapenko, who struggled since her breakthrough at the French four years ago, finally seems to have her game back -- she won her first matches at Roland Garros since that title run last fall, beating Karolina Pliskova, and took a set off Elina Svitolina in the Gippsland third round. If these ladies are at the top of their games, it could set the tone for a solid season.

Ons Jabeur (27) vs. Andrea Petkovic: Jabeur had her breakthrough here last year when she reached the quarters with wins over Johanna Konta, Caroline Garcia, Qiang Wang, and Caroline Wozniacki. She's now at a career-high ranking, but obviously has a lot of points to defend. Petkovic meanwhile is far from the top of her game -- she made the quarters at three Majors way back in 2011 -- but always a strong force. She may not prove to be a roadblock for Jabeur, but she'll certainly put on a good match for us.

Second Round

Bianca Andreescu (8) vs. Tsvetana Pironkova: This is the first time we've seen the 2019 U.S. Open champ in action in more than a year -- she pulled out of the Grampians draw last minute to focus on the Open. Meanwhile, Pironkova has been grinding away in her comeback, stunningly making the quarters in New York last year and battling through qualies for this event. She beat an inexplicably seeded Donna Vekic at the Yarra Valley Classic too, and might just be ready to take advantage of any holes in Andreescu's game. After all, the Canadian's rise up the rankings was swift and dizzying, and there's no proof yet she has staying power.

Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Kaia Kanepi: Not long ago I would've thought this would be a walk in the park for the defending champion, but the veteran Kanepi had a major resurgence this past week in the Gippsland draw. After ending Aryna Sabalenka's red hot win streak, she went on to defeat Ekaterina Alexandrova to make her first final since 2013. And she's had success at Slams in the past, reaching the quarters of every one but the Australian twice. I'm not calling for the upset just yet, but this one could be more of a fight than we expect.

Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Coco Gauff: No one wants to see the sixteen-year-old American in their section of the draw, especially not so early. Gauff has marked some of her biggest wins on the biggest stages, taking out Venus Williams, Johanna Konta, and of course Naomi Osaka here last year. She's not Kryptonite, though -- she lost to world #371 Katie Boulter this week at the Gippsland event -- so the on-paper favorite should take solace. Svitolina, after all, has been a staple in the top ten for four years, and while she's picked up more than a dozen trophies, including ones at the year-end championships and at Premier events like Rome, she's yet to even make the final of a Major. Surviving this test could be crucial to changing that now.

Third Round

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova (29): I had my doubts about how Barty would do when she took the court again after her nearly one-year absence, but she surprised me with a title at the Yarra Valley Classic, beating Garbiñe Muguruza in the final. But she could really be tested by the talented Russian ranked well below her ability. Alexandrova picked up her first career trophy a year ago in Shenzhen, beating Qiang Wang, Elena Rybakina, and Garbiñe Muguruza on the way. While she hasn't had a real breakthrough at the Majors, she did beat Kim Clijsters at the U.S. Open last year, and this past week stunned both Iga Swiatek and Simona Halep in the Gippsland draw. If they both make it this far, she could give the top seed a run for her money here too.

Victoria Azarenka (12) vs. Maria Sakkari (20): These two both pulled off something last year that few women have -- they each beat Serena Williams, Sakkari in the upset of her career at the Western & Southern and Vika in her comeback capstone in the U.S. Open semis. They might have met each other in the Grampians semis, but Azarenka withdrew ahead of the Open. Sakkari, meanwhile, lost a tight match to Anett Kontaveit to miss out on the final, but perhaps that will give her a little extra rest as she looks for a big result at a Major. And I have a feeling this potential match-up could be a good one.

Johanna Konta (13) vs. Jennifer Brady (22): The 25-year-old American may be the on-paper underdog here, but she's on a bit of a roll. After breaking through with her very first title in Lexington last year and reaching the semis in New York, she made it to the semis in the Grampians draw. Konta, meanwhile, who made the quarters of three Majors in 2019 -- plus the semis in Paris, has been a little more quiet since lockdown ended, this week gettin upset by Irina-Camelia Begu in the Gippsland third round. I wouldn't be surprised now to see an upset again.

Fourth Round

Naomi Osaka (3) vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (14): It's easy to have missed it, but the third seed essentially hasn't lost a match since February -- she withdrew from the "Cincy" final before her impactful run to the title in New York and was on point throughout her Gippsland campaign, pulling out again to make sure she was in form for the Open. Muguruza, meanwhile, was on fire at the Yarra Valley Classic, losing just ten games before the final, though she did eventually drop in that event's final. Weirdly, these two top stars have never faced each other before, and if they both make it to this round, you can bet it will be a battle. And the winner could really make her case for taking home the title.

Aryna Sabalenka (7) vs. Serena Williams (10): Don't adjust your screens -- that's not a typo. Sabalenka is, in fact, ranked and seeded higher than Serena. And for good reason -- the often steaky player put together a fifteen-match win streak before losing her opening round at the Gippsland event. Serena, meanwhile, had been looking solid before pulling out of the Yarra Valley semis with a shoulder injury. Strangely, these two have never met, but I imaging if they both make it this far -- which is not a given, Sabalenka could face talented Grampians finalist Ann Li in the third round -- we could see some heavy hitting and masterful points. And with a spot in the quarters on the line, they're going to want to bring it.

Quarterfinals

Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Nadia Podoroska: As mentioned above Svitolina is still trying for that big breakthrough at a Major, and she may have to face a rematch of last year's French quarterfinal to do it. Of course the still-unseeded Podoroska would likely have to pull off a couple of big upsets to do it -- potentialy Sofia Kenin in the third round, Jennifer Brady or Johanna Konta a round later -- but she's shown her Cinderella run at Roland Garros was no fluke. This past week at the Yarra Valley Classic, she stunned Petra Kvitova and very nearly took out former French Open finalist Marketa Vondrousova in the quarters. A lot of stars would have to align to make this one happen, but I'd love to see it come true.

Shelby Rogers vs. Danielle Collins: This one might be an even harder sell, but these hard-hitting Americans have pulled off more than a few big wins in the past. Rogers, of course, stunned Serena Williams in Lexington last year and then went on to beat Petra Kvitova to make the U.S. Open quarters. Collins, meanwhile, a semifinalist here in 2019, beat Ons Jabeur and Garbiñe Muguruza on her way to the final eight at the French and this past week got the better of Karolina Pliskova -- and nearly Serena -- at the Yarra Valley Classic. They've got plenty of challenges to make this match-up a reality -- Collins should get a rematch with Pliskova in the second round -- but both have proven they can pull off upsets under pressure.

Semifinals

Simona Halep (2) vs. Naomi Osaka (3): Both these ladies put together impressive win streaks at the end of last year, Halep on the European clay and Osaka on the American hardcourts, and while neither may have the top seed in Melbourne, it sure feels like either one could be a favorite for the title. There will be challenges, of course -- Halep may face a rematch of her rematch against Iga Swiatek in the fourth round, while Osaka as mentioned above has some tough matches early. But if they can get past those threats, they're in a good position to give us the match so many are hoping for.

Petra Kvitova (9) vs. Iga Swiatek (15): In a parallel universe, things don't go quite as planned for the top seeds -- Swiatek keeps her streak alive versus Halep and Kvitova avenges her loss to Osaka in the final here two years ago. In that world we get the first ever meeting between two fan favorites, with the two-time Wimbledon champ taking on the most recently minted Major champion for a spot in the final. It's hard to say who I'd be rooting for in that scenario, but I do know it'd be an amazing match.

Championship

Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Garbiñe Muguruza (14): The whole world loves a rematch and this year the draws worked out so that if we were to see last year's finalists play each other again at the Australian Open, it would have to be in the title match. Of course, Muguruza did just get revenge over Kenin in the Yarra Valley Classic last week, so there's reason to believe she might have figured out the key to what eluded her last time. But the American's run to the final in Paris -- especially after that drubbing in Rome -- proves you can never count her out.

Serena Williams (10) vs. Victoria Azarenka (12): No Australian Open preview would be complete without pointing out again that Serena is still looking for that elusive, record-breaking 24^th Grand Slam title. And if she's going to get a chance to win it, I'd love to see her face off against Victoria Azarenka. The Belorusian's comeback last year was cemented, after all, by her win over Serena in the U.S. Open semis, the first time she ever beat her friend and long-time rival at a Major. Could she do it again? Well this is the site of her two Slam trophies, so there's no better venue for her. Whatever the case, if both these ladies make it this far, you should get ready for some fireworks.

---

MEN'S DRAW

It was way harder to wade through the men's draw without getting too duplicative since, as we know, the game has been so dominated by a handful of guys for so many years. And, as it turns out, the draws mostly worked to the advantage of the top seeds -- and not just those who've taken home the big trophies before. But that's not to say there isn't room for some surprises, and maybe just a little bit of hope that some underdogs can sneak through.

First Round

Denis Shapovalov (11) vs. Jannik Sinner: Well, now, this just isn't fair. Nineteen-year-old Sinner, a quarterfinalist at the French Open last year, just missed being seeded, but after his first career title in Sofia is just a stone's throw out of seeding territory and is coming off his first title in Sofia last year and another at the Great Ocean Road Open last week, that ranking is rising and fast. Shapovalov, who broke into the top ten after his own run to the quarters at the U.S. Open plus a semi showing in Rome, is weirdly at 21 years of age the elder statesman of this pairing, but went oh-for-two in ATP Cup action. Still, he's a strong hitter and may not let lack of momentum get him down. And as much as I'd like to see both these guys go far, whoever comes out on top may set the stage for a big event ahead.

Pablo Carreño Busta (15) vs. Kei Nishikori: PCB has had a solid couple of months, backing up his asterisk of a win over Novak Djokovic at the U.S. Open with a stunning upset of Denis Shapovalov and a run to the quarterfinals in Paris. He also helped Spain to the semis at the ATP Cup, eventually losing to Fabio Fognini in three sets. For his efforts he'll face off against an on-the-mend Nishikori, a finalist in New York what seems like ages ago. The now-veteran man from Japan has had a more difficult time with this comeback, but nevertheless could cause some surprises against the seeded favorite. And it feels like this is as good a place as any for him to stage an upset.

Matteo Berrettini (9) vs. Kevin Anderson: I admit I have been skeptical about the popular Italian's spot in the top ten amid the ranking freeze, but I am happy to say he's starting to win me over. He pulled off upsets over Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem at the ATP Cup, leading Italy to the final. But he'll still be challenged by the two-time Major finalist, who's trying to battle back from multiple right knee surgeries. Anderson's had some success, too, beating Daniil Medvedev last year in Vienna and Feliciano Lopez this past week at the Great Ocean Road Open. If Berrettini's level slips even a little, it could be a chance for the South African to shine.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Jeremy Chardy: Okay, Djokovic is going to win this match. He has a 13-0 record against Chardy, won his last fourteen rounds at the Australian Open, and hasn't dropped a first match at a Major since 2006. But let's give a moment of respect to what Chardy's done already this year. The former top-25 player -- and a doubles finalist at the French Open in 2019 -- he went 2-5 last year, capped by a heartbreaking loss to world #170 Jurij Rodionov in a four-and-a-half-plus hour first round at the French. But he's been on a bit of a roll in 2021, making the semis in Antalya and notching wins over Marin Cilic and Taylor Fritz on his way to the Murray River Open semis. It's a shame he probably won't be able to keep his streak alive in Melbourne, but it'll be fun to see him try.

Frances Tiafoe vs. Stefano Travaglia: You know Tiafoe is one of my favorites to pick up the tennis mantle for the next generation, and he had moments late last year when he seemed ready to do it, winning a Challengers title in Parma and making the fourth round of the U.S. Open. Unfortunately, though, he opens his campaign at the Open against the Great Ocean Road Open finalist, who beat Alexander Bublik and Hubert Hurkacz on the way. Travaglia may have historically had his best results on clay, but his performance this past week suggests that's changing. The winner of this match, might not go much farther -- he'll likely face Novak Djokovic next -- but a solid performance will nevertheless put him in good stead the rest of the year.

Second Round

Milos Raonic (14) vs. Corentin Moutet: Young Moutet may be ranked at a pretty mediocre #80 right now, but he seems pretty primed for a breakout soon. This past week at the Murray River Open he scored wins over Frances Tiafoe and second seed Grigor Dimitrov on his run to the semis. Raonic, meanwhile, seemed to be back on the rise for much of last season, making the quarters in Melbourne and the final at the "Cincinnati" Masters. He did go one-and-one at the ATP Cup this week, though, and lost his only contest against Moutet last year in Doha -- the Frenchman rode that victory all the way to the final as a qualifier. Despite the ranking disparity, this could be a pretty evenly matched fight and if we see an upset, it could set the stage for a big year for one of these guys.

Taylor Fritz (27) vs. Reilly Opelka: Fritz seems to have had his big rise up the rankings while I wasn't looking, beating the likes of Grigor Dimitrov, Dominic Thiem and Alexander Zverev in 2019, bringing him into the top thirty. But while he did make it to the final in Acapulco last year, he lost more matches than he won that season. His big serving compatriot, though, ranked just out of seeding range, managed a title in Delray and got wins over Daniil Medvedev, Diego Schwartzman and Matteo Berrettini. He lost all of his first rounds at Majors, but if he is able to break that streak to set up this match, it could be a great opportunity for him to finally make a statement.

Ugo Humbert (29) vs. Nick Kyrgios: The young Frenchman was one of my under the radar stars to watch, after a season that brought him titles in Auckland and Antwerp as well as wins over Denis Shapovalov, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev. He didn't come out of the gate swinging quite so hard this year, but still could put up a good show against the unseeded Kyrgios, who is nothing if not a showman. The hometown hero stayed off tour most of last year due to the pandemic and notched a few wins at the Murray River Open -- will that be enough to make a deep run here? Who knows, but you can be sure you'll see some sparks fly however far he goes.

Third Round

Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Carlos Alcaraz: The seventeen-year-old Spanish qualifier may only be ranked just inside the top 150, and he may be playing in his first Major main draw, but he's proven over the last year that he's a true talent. After a stunning defeat of Albert Ramos in Rio, he picked up three Challengers titles in the back half of the year and he stunned top seeded David Goffin at the Great Ocean Road Open this past week. It might be a lot to ask him to make the third round in his Slam debut, but he could do it, and a match against Tsitsipas, who was two-and-oh at the ATP Cup, could give us a real sense of what he's capable of.

Fabio Fognini (16) vs. Tennys Sandgren: Last week I would not have given the seeded Italian a second glance at this event -- the thirty-three year old lost eight of his last nine matches last year, including one against Sandgren in the Australian Open fourth round. But he seemed to get his game together at the ATP Cup this past week, notching wins over Benoit Paire and Pablo Carreño Busta on the way to the final. The controversial American, meanwhile, who was similarly unproductive at the end of 2020, lost in the second round of the Great Ocean Road Open after a spectacular outburst in his opener. Those recent results might set the stage for Fognini to avenge last year's loss.

Fourth Round

Diego Schwartzman (8) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (20): The fan favorite Argentine is coming off the best year of his career -- his first Major semi, his first Masters final, his first win over Rafael Nadal. The young Canadian, meanwhile, is coming off a final showing at the Murray River Open -- frustratingly, his seventh trip to a championship match without a title. FAA has only won a handful of matches at the Majors, and he's got to feel pressure to do something big, but perhaps the favorite can see his way to another deep run.

Alex de Minaur (21) vs. Daniel Evans (30): There would have to be a couple of upsets in this section of the draw for this match-up to come to fruition, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. De Minaur, who surprisingly went winless at the ATP Cup last week -- he won both his round robins last year -- reached his first Major quarterfinal in New York and won the title in Antalya last month. He'd have to get past Fabio Fognini, not to mention Tennys Sandgren, to make the fourth round. Evans, meanwhile, fresh off a title at the Murray River Open -- the first of his fifteen-year career -- may only be barely seeded, but posted wins over Andrey Rublev, David Goffin, and, yes, de Minaur himself last year, not to mention Felix Auger-Aliassime last week. He'd likely meet Rafael Nadal in the third round, but we know this isn't Rafa's best Major, and there's a chance the Brit could get things done.

Quarterfinals

Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Andrey Rublev (7): These two paired up for an unbeatable showing at the ATP Cup last week, winning all of their singles matches to secure the title for Russia. And while Medvedev got a little jump start on his long-time friend, putting up one hell of a fight in the 2019 U.S. Open final before Rublev had his breakout last year, they're both on the cusp of cracking the big three's stranglehold on the Majors. If this match does in fact happen, I'd expect the younger Rublev to put up a bigger fight than he did in the New York quarters. Still, Medvedev is riding a fourteen match win streak -- which is only getting longer if he makes it this far -- and I'd be surprised if he let it end without a fight.

Gael Monfils (10) vs. Stan Wawrinka (17): It's asking a lot for these two vets to make it to the quarters. After a nice streak in the early spring of last year, injury slowed Monfils down after the pandemic, and after a loss in his only ATP Cup rubber, he hasn't won a match in almost a year. And Wawrinka, a winner here seven years ago has been a little hit-or-miss of late, beating Andrey Rublev in the Paris Masters but losing to world #239 Hugo Gaston at Roland Garros, winning a Challenger title in Prague and pulling out of the quarterfinals at the Murray River Open. They'd each have to pull off major upsets -- Monfils likely over Alexander Zverev and Wawrinka over long-time foil Novak Djokovic -- but it'd be fun to see some different members of the Old Guard make a run here. Why not these guys?

Semifinals

Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Daniil Medvedev (4): The theme of this round is the rematch. Remember how close Medvedev came to beating Nadal in the 2019 U.S. Open championship match? It was a nailbiter! Well, he eventually got revenge at the ATP Finals, one of the many wins in his current fourteen-match hot streak. And he might just be able to do it again on an even bigger stage. Of course, it's far from a given that both or either of these guys will make the final four -- Rafa, remember, has been notoriously unprolific in Melbourne -- but if they do, I begrudgingly give the advantage to the Russian (though, a little less begrudgingly than in the past).

Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Alexander Zverev (6): Remember how close Zverev came to beating Thiem in the 2020 U.S. Open championship match? It was a nailbiter! And while this rematch would likely mean the German was able to upset Novak Djokovic in the quarters, it could happen. Could there be a different outcome? For the sake of humanity, I hope not. But as long as Zverev is allowed to play, I can't deny that he's a force to be reckoned with. He won two titles in Hamburg last year and made the final at the Paris Masters. And he helped Germany to the ATP Cup semis this past week, while Thiem only won one match in a retirement. Still last year's runner-up now knows what it's like to win the big title and he'll be hungry to add another to his trophy case.

Championship

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (2): What would be the 57^th meeting between the two most decorated men in the field, as to be expected could only come in the final. And while Nole's chances of getting here, having won his last fourteen matches in Melbourne Park, are slightly better than those of Rafa, who won his one and only title here twelve years ago, their draws could play out exactly as their seedings predict. Nadal, after all, has made the final four more times since that 2009 run, and Djokovic is going for a ninth trophy Down Under. As the latter tries to narrow the gap in Grand Slams and the former tries to claim a record for himself, there's no better opponent for either of them.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Alexander Zverev (6): Then again, this could be the year we see a whole new slate of Grand Slam champions emerge. We saw Dominic Thiem break the seal in New York, so how about someone else now. Tsitsipas made the semis here in 2019, beating Roger Federer on the way, and Zverev, admittedly, came within inches of his own victory in New York. If these guys play at their best, they could guarantee another newbie making a victory lap. And you can guess whose side I'll be on to take home that crown.

---

Well, we made it! Two draws, seven rounds, and countless possibilities for great match-ups over the next fortnight. Whatever happens, there's the potential for some real history to be made on the courts of the Australian Open. And hopefully we all come out stronger on the other side of the action.

And while we wait for the first balls to be hit, here's hoping we can all pull it off safely.