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Showing posts with label Paula Badosa. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Paula Badosa. Show all posts

June 7, 2021

Some New Blood

With the quarterfinals for this year's Roland Garros now set, you might notice more than a couple newbies in the mix.

The women's draw, shredded from the start, has just two players remaining who've ever reached the final eight at a Major before, and only one of those still standing is ranked in the top fifteen. And while most of the favorites have survived so far on the men's side, outside Nole and Rafa, even the top seeds have relatively little experience this deep into a fortnight.

And all that might mean the fireworks have only just started.

The Women


We already knew things were going to be interesting on the ladies side of things, which so many withdrawals, upsets, and retirements in the early days, but that just makes the consistent performances we've seen so far that much more impressive. Defending champion Iga Swiatek, somehow the most accomplished of the bunch at just twenty years of age, pulled off a strong win today against eighteen-year-old Marta Kostyuk, who rode her first round upset over former titleist Garbiñe Muguruza all the way to the fourth round in a pretty impressive run. Meanwhile, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, the relative veteran of the group -- she's not even thirty yet! -- has made it back to the quarters in Paris for the first time in a decade. But everyone else is charting new territory.

I've already extolled the performance of Elena Rybakina, who rebounded from a sluggish start to the year to pull off the biggest win of her career in the fourth round, dismantling Serena Williams as she went for that still-elusive 24th Grand Slam title. And I've also been a big cheerleader for Paula Badosa -- with her title in Belgrade and a win over 2019 French runner-up Marketa Vondrousova in the last round, she's now riding a nine-match win streak and could be hard to beat. But there's also Maria Sakkari, the highest ranked first-timer, who ousted last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin earlier today. She's had trouble backing up one big win with another, but she'll be trying to change that against Swiatek in the next round

But we can't count out Tamara Zidansek who is having a true coming out party in Paris. About 30 spots off her career high ranking at #85 in the world right now, she's never made it out of the second round of a Major, and though she did manage a nice run to the Bogotá final, I wasn't giving her much of a shot here. But she followed up a first round upset of sixth seed Bianca Andreescu with wins over Serena's Parma slayer Katarina Siniakova and Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea. She's certainly the on-paper underdog, but we should know better than to count her out.

And, of course, there's the match I might be most excited for -- seventeen-year-old Coco Gauff, the youngest woman to reach a Slam quarter in fifteen years -- Nicole Vaidisova, on these courts -- will take on Barbora Krejcikova, whose won a couple of Major doubles titles but has only even entered a handful of singles draws, in a battle of players riding nine-match win streaks. Gauff has a huge opportunity here -- her win over Ons Jabeur helped secure her a spot on the U.S. Olympic Team, while Krejcikova, who followed up an upset of fifth seed Elina Svitolina with a win over a resurgent Sloane Stephens, could get revenge for a doubles loss to Coco in Miami this year. But with a spot in her maiden semi on the line, it's great to see two unexpected superstars really stand out.

The Men


Things went a little more according to plan on the men's side, but that doesn't mean a total lack of drama -- or of fresh faces. Nineteen-year-old Lorenzo Musetti looked experienced well beyond his years when he took the first two sets off Novak Djokovic earlier today before losing steam and retiring in the fifth set, and fellow Italian teen Jannik Sinner got off to a strong start against Rafael Nadal, but the king of clay was able to do what he always does best to pull out the win.

The two favorites will take on two relative newcomers to the later rounds of Slams. Matteo Berrettini, whose ability to deliver I questioned for so long has happily proven me wrong, taking the title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. He got a little lucky with Roger Federer withdrawing before their fourth round match, but that extra rest could help him against a tested Djokovic. And Diego Schwartzman, who's turned around his clay court season in a big way, has yet to drop a set in his first four matches. Whether that gives him a shot at repeating his Rome revolution against Rafa -- well let's just say it's good to see him winning again.

The real surprise for the men has come in the bottom half of the draw, which, with the only Grand Slam titleholder in it eliminated in the first round, seemed to hold a huge opportunity for the next generation's leaders to breakthrough. And they've admittedly done well so far -- my favorite for the final, Stefanos Tsitsipas, is alive and well, dropping just one surprising set so far to John Isner, while Alexander Zverev has thrived after surviving an opening match scare and even Daniil Medvedev has found his footing on clay.

The standout, though, has been 21-year-old Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, who's become a bit of a dark horse over the last few months. Outside the top fifty at the start of the year, he beat Berrettini in the second round of Monte Rome and took out Grigor Dimitrov in Rome. Playing just his third main draw in Paris, he stunned Casper Ruud, one of my favorites to go far, in the third round and followed it up with a win over sleeper Federico Delbonis. He's lost both his previous matches to Zverev, but whatever happens in the next round, this could set the stage for a lot more to come in his career.


Maybe we shouldn't be so surprised that so many twists and turns have come out of the French Open. But it's truly encouraging to see so many players breaking new ground over the last ten days. For the women, there's an unprecedented opportunity to claim a first Grand Slam title. For the men, while the odds still lie with the most decorated of the bunch, we're really going to see which next gen star has what it takes to step up.

And there's no better stage than this on which to do it.
Posted by Kavitha at 6:30 PM 0 comments
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June 3, 2021

Dropping Like Flies

It's been a dramatic start to the French Open this year, both on and off the court, and day after day it's seems we're hit with one more exit we weren't expecting. And whether it's because of physical or mental form, that's left some gaping holes in the women's draw.

Of course the big news was the withdrawal of Naomi Osaka on Monday -- after the bold decision not to participate in press conferences at the event, she pulled out of Roland Garros and said she was taking a break from competition entirely. The move brought into focus the mental health of athletes in a way that hasn't been done before, and whether or not you agree with the way everything was handled, here's hoping she comes back stronger and fitter in more ways than one.

But it wasn't just Osaka's early departure that rocked the brackets. Petra Kvitova, who ironically injured her ankle on the way to her own first round press conference, had to withdraw on Tuesday, and earlier today top seed Ashleigh Barty, one of two defending champs on the ladies' side, stopped her match short due to a nagging hip problem. Combine that with Simona Halep's pre-tournament bow out and losses by Bianca Andreescu, Karolina Pliskova, Belinda Bencic, and Garbiñe Muguruza and more than half of the WTA's top thirteen are missing from Round 3.


So the question then becomes, of course, who benefits most from all this? The obvious answers are last year's French finalists, Iga Swiatek and Sofia Kenin, the latter of whom was desperately looking to turn around her year and has done so so far, with wins over 2017 champ Jelena Ostapenko and qualifier Hailey Baptiste. She'll face a challenge from fellow American Jessica Pegula in her third round, though, so any potential comeback could be stopped short soon.

But there are others, too.

Barty's exit makes Elina Svitolina the highest ranked player left in her quarter, and with an easy win over a talented Ann Li today, she's playing at a level that could help her go far. She will face a challenge in her next match though, as Strasbourg champ Barbora Krejcikova is now riding a seven match win streak she'll be loathe to give up. And Coco Gauff, who just reprised her Parma final win over Qiang Wang today, might be breathing easier now that she won't face Barty in the fourth round. She still has to get past Aussie runner-up Jen Brady, who beat her last year in Lexington, but on this surface I'm giving the teen the edge.

A little more under the radar is Sloane Stephens, the 2018 runner-up in Paris, who lost her first four matches to kick off the season. She seems to have gotten her footing back on clay, though, reaching the quarters in Charleston and the semis in Parma. In her early days here, she won an emotional first round against a retiring Carla Suarrez Navarro and earlier today pulled off that big upset over Karolina Pliskova. While Melbourne standout Karolina Muchova will be a much tougher challenge in the next round, despite the fact that she's still ranked lower than the former world #1, I'm encouraged by Stephens' return to form and wouldn't be too surprised by an upset.

In the bottom half of the draw, where things were wide open from the start -- Osaka, after all, may have been seeded second, but she had never gotten past the third round in Paris -- we have some more potential beneficiaries. One surprising one may be Elena Vesnina, who here won her first singles match since giving birth in 2018, dropping just one game in her first round. She was scheduled to face Kvitova yesterday, but instead will meet a struggling Elena Rybakina in the third round tomorrow, a wholly winnable match that could get her to her first ever fourth round at the French.

Less of a long shot to go far, though, is Paula Badosa, the barely-seeded but red-hot Spaniard who's made at least the semis of every clay event she's played this year. She's one of just two seeds left in her quarter -- 2019 runner-up Marketa Vondrousova likely looms in the fourth round -- and while there are some big hitters still left -- Istanbul champ Sorana Cirstea, Serena's Parma vanquisher Katerina Siniakova, to name a few -- you have to like her chances to get at least to the semis.

And of course there's Aryna Sabalenka, trying to get past the fourth round at a Major for the inexplicably first time in her career. A final in Stuttgart and a title in Madrid have given her a solid foundation for this clay season. And while she's got potential match-ups against Victoria Azarenka and Serena Williams in her future, it seems she is well on course to break the seal and make it to the next level.

So with two rounds in the books, there's certainly a lot of opportunity to make a big statement, and with the stakes so high, you know everyone's eager for it to be them. All that remains to be seen is who is willing and able to step up to the plate.
Posted by Kavitha at 2:01 PM 0 comments
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May 29, 2021

French Open 2021 Preview: Round by Round

It's been just over seven months since we crowned the last king and queen of Roland Garros, and yet, on the eve of the 2021 French Open it somehow feels like it's taken such a long road to get back.

After all, it's been a dramatic clay court season, with surprising upsets, stunning statements, and pretty impressive breakthroughs.

Rafael Nadal has proven he is not invincible on clay. Perennial powerhouse Simona Halep had to withdraw due to a calf injury. And for the first time, possibly in history, we have two defending women's champions back to keep their win streaks here going -- and they've both made pretty good cases for themselves.

As the draws shake out, we have the opportunity to see some fierce match-ups, and the surprises could start coming right at the get go. So here's a look at some of the possibilities and the potential battles that could really make things interesting at Roland Garros this year.

And, as with the last time, I'm essentially resetting the draw after each pairing -- someone who had to be eliminated for one match to take place may show up later in another one. It's only because there have been so many standouts this season that there's no other way to cover it all.

So let's dive right in.
THE WOMEN THE MEN


WOMEN'S DRAW


First Round

Aryna Sabalenka (3) vs. Ana Konjuh (Q): Well this is a tough first round for both players. The heavy favorite Sabalenka is at a career-high ranking and is pretty fresh off picking up the biggest title of her career in Madrid. She also made the final in Stuttgart and, of course, has been putting one of the strongest win streaks out there. But...she has never made it past the fourth round of a Grand Slam. Konjuh, meanwhile, made the quarters at the U.S. Open years ago, and after a long recovery from injury is finally back in form. She scored wins over Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek in Miami and successfully pivoted to clay with a final run in Belgrade. Still at #144 in the world -- she was sub-300 in Miami -- she had to fight through qualies to get here, but she could put up quite the fight against someone many consider a potential champion.

Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Jelena Ostapenko: Last year's runner-up opens her point defense against 2017's recently resurging champion, and I'm not sure I like her chances. Kenin has struggled with injury and form and has only won one match since the Australian Open. Meanwhile, Ostapenko is coming off a quarterfinal showing in Rome. But the young American has a new coach and has shown that she's more than capable of shaking off bad losses. Still, this one is going to be close.

Carla Suarrez Navarro vs. Sloane Stephens: CSN's farewell tour was disrupted first by COVID and then, tragically, by cancer, but she's back for one last hurrah at Roland Garros and all sorts of sentiment is one her side. It's hard to tell what condition she'll be in (though her social profile suggests she's in fighting form), but she'll certainly face a challenger at the outset. Suarrez's first round opponent is the 2018 runner-up in Paris, and while Sloane famously rides a roller coaster in terms of performance, she may be on the upswing -- she made the quarters in both Charleston and Parma, with wins over favorites both times. Still, the Spaniard, twice a quarterfinalist here, has had some career-defining wins over the years, and hopefully has a few more left in her.

Veronika Kudermetova (29) vs Amanda Anisimova: The on-paper favorite has had a strong year, with a run to the final in Abu Dhabi and her maiden title in Charleston. It's bad luck that she'll open her campaign here against 2019's surprise semifinalist. But it's been a tough two years for the young American -- after suffering the death of her father during her breakout year, she kicked off this season with a COVID diagnosis and an ankle injury and she's struggled to gain traction ahead of her return to Paris. Still, at only 19, she's probably got a lot of room to surprise us, and she's beaten much more formidable opponents on these courts before. If she's playing at her best, this one could be a battle.

Second Round

Bianca Andreescu (6) vs. Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Q): The former U.S. Open champ doubled her 2019 win record on clay with her performance in Strasbourg. Unfortunately, that means she still only has two wins on the surface this year. She cut her run short last week to take care of an ab injury, and she'll be tested pretty quickly on the big stage. MCOS, after all, has been racking up wins this season -- the 19-year-old picked up her first title as a wildcard in Bogota, made the semis the next week in Charleston, and picked up in Europe with a run to the semis in Belgrade. That got her into the top hundred -- not soon enough to have her avoid qualifying rounds, but she breezed through those without dropping a set. She's faced Andreescu what feels like years ago, in the final of an ITF event in Oklahoma, and only won one game, but something tells me things will be different this time around.

Serena Williams (7) vs. Arantxa Rus: Rus has had some huge wins on big stages over the years, stunning then-#2 Kim Clijsters at Roland Garros in 2011 and then-#5 Sam Stosur at Wimbledon a year later. But that was a long time ago, and she really never came to much after that. She did upset second seed Jessica Pegula this past week in Strasbourg, though, and came OHSOCLOSE to beating Williams last year in "Cincinnati" too. Could she seal the deal this time? Possibly -- as Serena continues to go for that elusive 24th Major, she's hit one roadblock after another, and she hasn't really found her footing on clay this year. She'll put up a fight, of course, but everyone should know by now that she's far from invincible, and if both these ladies make the second round, Rus certainly has a shot at an upset.

Garbiñe Muguruza (12) vs. Sara Sorribes Tormo: I was all aboard the Sorribes bandwagon in the early spring -- the 24-year-old was impressive in her run to a maiden title in Guadalajara and even more impressive in her quarterfinal fight against Bianca Andreescu in Miami. Strangely, for a Spaniard, she's been a little quiet on clay. Her compatriot, meanwhile, was the champion here five years ago and is a far better player than her ranking suggests. It's a tough early round for both, but one that could spark some fireworks.

Ekaterina Alexandrova (32) vs. Barbora Krejcikova: Krejcikova is a decorated doubles star, with a couple Major trophies over the years -- she and Katarina Siniakova won both the French and Wimbledon in 2018 and were runners-up in Melbourne earlier this season. But she's really started gaining traction on the singles scene over the last few months, making the fourth round in Paris last fall and the final in Dubai in March. But Alexandrova is no slouch either -- she beat Simona Halep and Iga Swiatek in the Gippsland draw to start the year -- and I'm perennially shocked to see how "low" her ranking is. These two have met twice already this year, with the seed getting the win at the Australian Open and Krejcikova pulling off the upset this past week on her way to the title in Strasbourg. Given the surface, I wouldn't be surprised to see that outcome play out again.

Third Round

Naomi Osaka (2) vs. Paula Badosa (33): This is where things get interesting. Osaka isn't the best player on clay -- she's never made it out of the third round here, and she lost early in both Madrid and Rome -- and her draw got a whole lot harder on Friday with the withdrawal of 27th seed Alison Riske. That's because it elevated Belgrade champion Paula Badosa into seeding territory, and the red-hot Spaniard already has wins over Ashleigh Barty and Belinda Bencic on clay this year. Badosa had before been in the Sabalenka/Serena quarter, but even as the lowest seed things are looking a lot better for her now, and if she can pull of a win here, it might be hard to stop her until the semis.

Jennifer Brady (13) vs. Coco Gauff (24): Brady may be the more seasoned player here, and she may have some impressively deep showings at the most recent Slams, but this is a whole new court, and Coco's been the one grabbing all the headlines on it. A semifinal run in Rome and not one but two titles in Parma brought her to a career high ranking of #25 in the world, and a couple wins here will certainly drive her even higher. Of course, this match-up is not a sure thing -- Gauff could face Melbourne Cinederella Su-Wei Hsieh in the second round, while Brady may have to get through clay specialist Fiona Ferro herself. But if they both make it, I feel like the edge goes to the younger phenom.

Nadia Podoroska vs. Sorana Cirstea: This potential battle would require a couple upsets early on -- Cirstea opens against 2019 French semifinalist Johanna Konta, while 2020 French semifinalist Podoroska will start her point defense against tenth seed Belinda Bencic. But there's plenty of reason to believe both can pull off the wins. Cirstea, a one-time quarterfinalist at Roland Garros -- twelve years ago! -- has her groove back after a title in Istanbul and a second place finish in Strasbourg, while Konta has only scored three match wins this year. And Podoroska, who stunned Serena Williams in Rome, could easily get the better of a recently-spotty Bencic. In any case, I'm excited to see these two face off and can't even begin to pick the favorite.

Fourth Round

Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Karolina Muchova (18): Svitolina is a solid clay court player and has had a lot of success on the courts of Paris, making the quarters three times. But while she's had some decent wins this year -- Petra Kvitova in Miami and Stuttgart, Garbiñe Muguruza in Rome -- she hasn't really had a standout moment in a little while. After all the upsets at the French last year, she was for a brief moment a favorite for the title, but then got crushed> by Nadia Podoroska in the final eight. Muchova, on the other hand, had her coming out party a few months ago, beating Karolina Pliskova and Ashleigh Barty on the way to her first Slam semi in Melbourne. And about a month ago she beat Naomi Osaka en route to the Madrid quarters. She's slated for a rematch with her compatriot, a three-time finalist in Rome, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her make another attempt at a deep run now.

Petra Kvitova (11) vs. Danielle Collins: Collins may only be ranked #50 in the world, but she is no slouch on clay, having reached the quarters last year with wins over Ons Jabeur and Garbiñe Muguruza along the way. She's had some big successes this season too, taking out Karolina Pliskova at the Yarra Valley Classic and Ashleigh Barty in Adelaide. But she had to undergo a pretty harrowing surgery for endometriosis last month and hasn't been seen on court in a while. She says she's playing without pain and more consistently now, though, which could make her an even bigger force than she usually is. While she might have to get through Angelique Kerber and Serena Williams first, she could very well set up a showdown with last year's semifinalist at the end of the first week. Kvitova is one of those consistent favorites, though, and always seems to up her game when you least expect it. I imagine this could be a fun one.

Maria Sakkari (17) vs. Jessica Pegula (28): Sakkari is one of those players I really want to see big things from, and she gets so close to making that happen so often. Last year she pulled off a massive win over Serena in "Cincy", but lost the next round; this year she stunned Naomi Osaka in Miami, and again dropped a match later. Pegula, on the other hand, has had a little more follow through, even when she's a far bigger underdog. After stunning Victoria Azarenka in the first round of the Australian Open this year, she went all the way to the quarters. Then as a qualifier, for some reason, in Doha she made her way to the semis. And while she did lose to Sakkari in Miami, she followed up a win over Osaka in Rome to make the final eight there. Seeded at a Slam for the first time, she might have to make it past last year's runner-up Sofia Kenin first, but if there's one thing we should know about Pegula by now, it's that she's more than capable of pulling off one upset after another.

Petra Martic (22) vs. Shelby Rogers: Not that long ago I wouldn't have given Martic a second glance, but the 2019 quarterfinalist here, coached now by former French champion Francesca Schiavone, seemed invigorated in her run to the semis in Rome. But Rogers has made the quarterfinals in Paris before too, and she'll want to avenge her loss to Martic in the first round in Rome. It won't be easy for either of these two to get the rematch -- Martic is slated to face Garbiñe Muguruza in the third round, while the American could run up against the defending most-recent champ Iga Swiatek even sooner -- but it'll be interesting if they're able to make it.

Quarterfinals

Serena Williams (7) vs. Victoria Azarenka (15): Okay, okay, I know, this one's a long shot. Neither of these ladies has been playing her best recently, Serena getting upset in both Rome and Parma, while a persisent back injury forced Vika to pull out of matches in Melbourne, Doha, and Madrid. But, for old time's sake -- not event that old -- let's just say they're able to return to form again. I mean, remember that match last year in New York? Wouldn't it be fun to see that again? And if anyone can pull off the comeback, it's these two.

Elise Mertens (14) vs. Anna Karolina Schmiedlova (Q): Okay, now we're talking about long shots, but hear me out. Mertens has been one of the most under-the-radar but consistent players on tour the last several months, reaching at least the quarters in ten of her last 15 tournaments and picking up a title in Gippsland too. On clay she beat Veronika Kudermetova in Istanbul and Simona Halep in Madrid, so you know she's comfortable on this surface. Schmiedlova, meanwhile, may be far removed from the career-high ranking she hit half a decade ago, but with a win over Azarenka here just last year she's more than capable of an upset or two. Can she, as a qualifier, make it all the way to a quarterfinal? Well she's got some big obstacles in her way, starting with Iga Swiatek in the third round and Garbiñe Muguruza one after that. But what fun would sports be if we didn't get a few surprises?

Semifinals

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Iga Swiatek (8): It doesn't happen very often that you have two simultaneously defending champions at a Major, but as COVID kept Barty from traveling to Paris last fall, Swiatek was able to gloriously take up the mantle in her absense. Their only previous meeting in the fourth round of Madrid was disappointingly straightforward, with the earlier titleist getting the win in straight sets. But while the world #1 has a field-leading 13 wins on clay so far this season, the younger Swiatek stormed back onto our radars with a trophy in Rome and seems primed to make a potential second meeting a little closer -- and possibly raise the bar for how two champions should compete.

Championship

Ashleigh Barty (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (3): There is a lot that can happen over the course of the next two weeks, but it seems fitting that the two winningest players this season could face off in another final. They already split their title contests in Stuttgart and Madrid, so why not add Paris to their rivalry? I admit, I've been skeptical about Barty's staying power in the past, but she's really proven she's deserving of that #1 ranking. Sabalenka may have a little more work to do, though -- despite a career-high ranking and a long and impressive win streak, she's never gotten out of the fourth round of a Major. And with a tough first round here she'll be tested off the bat. But in a half that's really wide open, I'd expect something big from her now.


MEN'S DRAW


First Round

Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Alexander Bublik: I'll save the complaints about Medvedev's second seeding for later, but regardless, there's no doubt he's had one of the strongest twelve-month stretches out there. Still, he's not a fan of the clay -- something he's made very clear over the past few months. He's one just one of three matches on the surface the year -- and has a barely better record for his still-young career -- and has never won a round at Roland Garros. It'll be hard to change that against the barely unseeded Bublik, a player I continue to believe is better than his ranking. The Kazakh isn't that much better on dirt, but he did manage to make the quarters in Madrid, with wins over Denis Shapovalov and Aslan Karatsev. Whether he makes a big statement here, I'm not sure, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get at least this upset.

David Goffin (13) vs. Lorenzo Musetti: The seeded Goffin has had a couple of pleasantly surprising results this year -- taking the title in Montpellier and stunning Alexander Zverev in Monte Carlo -- but outside of that, he's been pretty quiet. Nineteen-year-old Musetti, on the other hand, has continued to climb the rankings, making the quarters in Cagliari and the semis in Lyon. I'm kind of calling for the upset here, but what a confidence boost it would be if Goffin could get a win over this up-and-coming/already-arrived star.

Emil Ruusuvuori vs. Mackenzie McDonald (Q): McDonald is still well off his career high ranking, but a fourth round showing in Melbourne and a Challengers title in Nur Sultan have helped boost him a little. He still had to play qualies here, though, but made it through without losing a set. For his efforts, he gets a shot at the 22-year-old Finn whose name I had to learn how to spell after a solid defeat of Alexander Zverev in Miami. It's certainly a winnable match for the young American, but not one he should take for granted. And if he can pass the test, it could help launch him back where he belongs.

Second Round

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Federico Delbonis: Thiem is a two-time finalist here and a fairly-newly-minted Grand Slam champion, but a nagging knee injury has really hampered his effectiveness this year. While he managed a decent run in Madrid, he's been upset more than he's been winning. Delbonis, meanwhile, has been pretty active all spring, playing week in and week out, upsetting Pablo Carreño Busta in Spain, reaching the quarters in Rome, and this past week reaching the semis in Belgrade. He's never had a lot of success at the Majors, only made the third round once at the Australian Open five years ago, but this might be the best chance he's had in a while.

Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Sebastian Korda: It wouldn't be a Major if we didn't see at least a few popcorn matches right at the start, and this could be one of them. Twenty-year-old Korda has been slashing his ranking all year, reaching the final in Delray, the quarters in Miami, and this past week picking up his first tour-level title in Parma, ousting top seeded Lorenzo Sonego on the way. Tsitsipas, meanwhile, has two clay titles of his own this season, including his first Masters crown in Monte Carlo. The two have a huge opportunity here, in the half of the draw with just one Grand Slam title -- compared to the top half with fifty-nine combined -- and it's a shame that one will have to go home early. But you can be sure they'll both be battling to make sure they're not that one.

Lorenzo Sonego (26) vs. Cameron Norrie: The 26-year-old Italian is another one who's been climbing up the rankings in recent months. Since that miraculous win over Novak Djokovic last year in Vienna, he's gone on to win a title in Cagliari and score wins over Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem in Rome. Norrie notches his own upset of Thiem on his way to the Lyon final and also came in second in Estoril. He has yet to bring home that maiden title, but he's certainly finding his footing on the clay. The winner of this match will have a tough road ahead of him -- Rafael Nadal likely awaits in the third round -- but it certainly will make a case for potentially bigger runs over the year.

Third Round

Andrey Rublev (7) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (Q): Here's another potentially explosive early match-up. Rublev has followed up nicely on his breakthrough season, reaching the quarters of his last three Majors, picking up another title in Rotterdam, and absolutely stunning Rafael Nadal in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Alcaraz's successes have been on a much smaller scale, but a semifinal run in Marbella, a Challengers title in Oerias, and a perfect record in the Roland Garros qualies, gives him a nice winning streak coming into the main event. He'll likely face Munich and Doha champ Nikoloz Basilashvili in the second round, but sparks may really start to fly if he can set up the match with the top-ten Russian -- and it could give us a good taste of what the future of tennis will look like.

Diego Schwartzman (10) vs. Aslan Karatsev (24): This one pains me. After a late-in-his-career breakout, which included a win over Rafael Nadal last year in Rome, Schwartzman's been pretty quiet in 2021, losing his opening round four times. I am somewhat mollified by the fact that he did pick up a title in Buenos Aires and that his losses came against talented players, but it's still not a precedent you like to see. Karatsev, on the other hand, has been virtually unstoppable. Since his Cinderella run in Melbourne, he picked up his first title in Dubai and scored wins over Novak Djokovic, Daniil Medvedev, and, yes, Diego Schwartzman. I wouldn't be surprised if things go his way again, but I'm hoping the Argentine is able to find his magic again.

Roberto Bautista Agut (11) vs. Kei Nishikori: It's been a long time since we've seen fan-favorite Nishikori at the top of his game, but this could be the best chance he's had in a while to make a statement at a Slam. At his lowest ranking in nearly a decade thanks to yet another battle with injury, he's still able to get the better of his opponents. He beat David Goffin in Dubai, Karen Khachanov in Madrid, and Fabio Fognini in Rome. RBA can't be overlooked though -- he's reached finals in Montpellier and Doha this year, beating Andrey Rublev and Dominic Thiem at the latter, and the semis in Miami, with a win over Daniil Medvedev there. But clay is weirdly not his best surface, which could crack open the door a bit for the man from Japan.

Jannik Sinner (18) vs. Albert Ramos-Viñolas: Sinner is another one of those youngsters quickly making a habit of beating top-ranked players. A quarterfinalist at the French last year, he won two titles to bridge the seasons and made a play for the big leagues with a run to the final at the Miami Masters. Ramos has been pretty busy himself, quietly amassing 17 wins on clay this season and claiming a title in Estoril to boot. He'll have to get past Gael Monfils in the first round, but with the Frenchman having only won match in the last year-plus, his bigger challenge will likely be against the wünderkind, and that one could be fun to watch.

Reilly Opelka (32) vs. Tommy Paul: It's easy to overlook the Americans on clay -- especially the men -- but these guys have been putting up some nice results over the past few weeks. Big-serving Opelka is coming off a run to the semis in Rome, where he took out Lorenzo Musetti and Aslan Karatsev, and could make a play to become the top-ranked man in the States. Paul is a little further down the rankings, but he pulled off some nice wins this past week in Parma, beating Jiri Vesely and Jan-Lennard Struff on his way to the final four. He's suppsed to face Daniil Medvedev in the second round, but as I've mentioned, that's not a guarantee -- nor is beating Alexander Bublik, to be honest -- but if he makes it, a battle against his countryman would give someone a little bit of bragging rights.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Arthur Cazaux (W): This one might take a little bit of doing, but it's not the craziest of thoughts. ADF has followed up nicely on his strong 2020 season, making the quarters in Monte Carlo and the semis in Estoril. And while likely second round opponent Hubert Hurkacz scored the biggest-yet win of his career in Miami, he's been less impressive on clay, winning just one match so far against world #171 Thomas Fabbiano in Monte Carlo. Eighteen-year-old Cazaux is playing his very first Major main draw -- he lost first round qualifying in Paris last year to Aslan Karatsev -- but he has scored wins this year over Sebastian Korda and Adrian Mannarino. And we know how well French wildcards can do at Roland Garros. Cazaux would likely need to get past super-surging Casper Ruud -- more on that later -- to set up this one, but stranger things have happened.

Fourth Round

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Marco Cecchinato: During those years I'd stopped writing and paying attention to every twist and turn in the tennis world, something very strange happened -- Novak Djokovic stopped winning Majors! After locking in the Career Grand Slam at the French in 2016, he went on a two-plus year stretch without earning another big title. And one of the biggest surprises during that run came at the hands of Marco Cecchinato, who stunned him in the Paris quarters in 2018. Then it was the Italian's turn to start losing -- eight straight Major first rounds as his ranking dropped back out of the top hundred. He may be getting back on track, though, reaching the final this past week in Parma. It's not crazy to think he might be able to engineer a rematch -- the first seed he'd face is Alex de Minaur, who's only ever won one match here, and the second is David Goffin, who might not make it even that far -- though expecting a repeat is probably a little less likely. Still, it'd be fun to see him try.

Roger Federer (8) vs. Matteo Berrettini (9): Now this one scares me. It's been over a year since we've seen Roger at a Major, and his performance since has been spotty at best. He drew the short end of the draw stick, with both Rafa and Nole in his half of the bracket, and the other Grand Slam champion in this section, Marin Cilic, is his probably second round opponent. Meanwhile, Berrettini has been suprisingly impressive of late, winning a title in Belgrade and making the final in Madrid. Fed has won their two prior meetings in 2019, but if the seedings play out as expected early, things may go differently this time around. And I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Quarterfinals

Dominic Thiem (4) vs. Daniel Evans (25): Weirdly, it might be the lower-rated Brit that has the better chance of setting up this match. Evans, who kicked off this year with his first career title at the Murray River Open, may have scored the win of his career when he beat Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo. That certainly makes him more of a factor on a surface that's not traditionally his best. Thiem, though, who usually thrives on clay, has been a little more spotty post injury and has plenty of challenges on his route. So does Evans, of course, but if he survives, this one could be fun.

Alexander Zverev (6) vs. Casper Ruud (15): In an alternate universe Madrid champion makes good on his seeding, beating Evans in the third round, and Geneva titleist Casper Ruud, who also took out Stefanos Tsitsipas in Madrid, overcomes Thiem too, setting up what may, in the end, be a more likely quarterfinal. I begrudgingly admit Zverev has remained a force despite his off-court drama, and with some easy early rounds, should make it through relatively unscathed. And Ruud, who's sitting at a career-high ranking, is due for a Major breakout. There's no reason this can't be it for him.

Semifinals

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Rafael Nadal (3): It's not often that these two face off outside a final, especially at the French, so the fact that they're doing so now has plenty of people up in arms. After all, it's a pretty big injustice that Nadal is seeded third here -- sure, you can argue that he's had a quieter 12 months than world #2 Daniil Medvedev, but given the latter's obvious disdain for the surface -- and the former's dominance on it -- you'd think there could be some leeway. There are plenty of reasons for Rafa fan's to be nervous -- the last time he took on the Djoker before the final Sunday in Paris did not go his way, and he's been less than perfect this clay court season. Then again, so has Nole. And given how close their last meeting was, you know this one is going to be close. Whoever wins, though, if they're not completely spent from the battle, you have to think comes away with the title.

Championship

Rafael Nadal (3) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (5): This pick may not be what the seedings predict, but given this clay court season it would be the most appropriate. Rafa, of course, will have to make it through a half which contains all of the Big Three, with a combined 58 Grand Slam titles between them -- adding in 2014 U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic makes it 59 -- not to mention a potential quarterfinal against Andrey Rublev, the man who beat him in Monte Carlo. Tsitsipas, on the other hand, with a season-leading 16 wins on clay this year, compared to Nadal's 14, has it relatively easy, with just one Major title in his half. He's never reached a final at this level though, falling just short at last year's French, but there's no question these have been the two best players on the surface this year. And given how close their previous matches have been, if they get a chance to play for this crown, you know it's going to be a good one.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Alexander Zverev (6): In another alternate universe, hearts are broken and justice is not served, but two very strong clay courters nevertheless reach the final. Djokovic made up for his slow start to the clay season, bringing home a title at the second Belgrade Open earlier today. And if there is anyone who'll be able to recover in time for a Slam, it's him. He doesn't often get the better of Nadal on these courts, but he's got what might be the best shot he's had in a long time this year. After all, he only barely lost the title to him in Rome, and that after a double header the day before. Zverev, meanwhile, has his own win over Nadal at a clay Masters and an arguably easier road to what woud be his second Slam final. If this is the championship we get, you know I'll be all in for Nole -- but Zverev seems destined for a trophy soon, and this might just be his time.


Well there you have it, the matches I hope or believe we'll see over the next two weeks at Roland Garros. Of course, we can't bank on anything at the Majors, and as much as we know we should never count out Rafa here, there are plenty of others ready to take up the mantle, and a lot more primed to make a big splash.

And as we kick off the second Grand Slam of the year, let's hope we can make it a good one.
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May 21, 2021

Ready to Take Over

There's been a lot of chatter this week, after early and shocking losses by Roger Federer and Serena Williams, about whether it's time for the OG to hang up their racquets and call it a day. And while I think it's a little to early to make that call, there sure seem to be a lot of young whippersnappers chomping at the bit this week to take their place.


Some are players we've been talking about for a while, like Lorenzo Musetti, whose win over Stan Wawrinka last year in Rome put him on everyone's radar. He's continued to climb up the rankings this year, beating a struggling Diego Schwartzman on his way to the Acapulco semis, and now sits inside the top hundred. This week in Lyon, he's got the better of a couple other young stars -- seventh seeded Felix Auger-Aliassime in his opener, followed by a three-setter against Sebastian Korda. His win today over Aljaz Bedene earns him a semifinal date with Stefanos Tsitsipas, who's been red hot this clay season. And while the 19-year-old lost their only previous meeting so far, he might be able to put up a bigger fight now.

Then there's Coco Gauff, who seemed to have cooled off a bit since her stunning 2019 season. But she pulled off two stunning wins last week in Rome, defeating Maria Sakkari and on-fire Aryna Sabalenka to make her first 1000-level semis and she brought that momentum with her this week to Parma. At a career-high of #30 in the world at just 17 years old, she took out a resurgent Kaia Kanepi, fellow teen phenom Amanda Anisimova, and, earlier today, Serena's vanquisher Katarina Siniakova. She'll play the second final of her career tomorrow against sixth seed Qiang Wang -- who, you may remember, beat Serena in Melbourne last year -- and something tells me she might be walking away with her second trophy.

But there are also a couple players who haven't had quite as splashy a career yet, but seem to be managing quite well anyway. Paula Badosa is a little older than the rest of these, guys, but she's really coming into her own now and delivering consistently. After a rough start to the season, the 23-year-old dealt a stunning upset to Ashleigh Barty in Charleston and then notched her second straight win over Belinda Bencic to make the semis in Madrid. That earned her a third seed this week in Belgrade, and so far she's lived up to expectations, not dropping a set yet and beating veteran Andrea Petkovic in the process. She'll face lucky loser Viktoriya Tomova for a spot in her first career final, and the way she's playing I can't see her stopping short.

And then there's young Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, emerging as the breakout star of this clay court season. Ranked just #180 in the world when she hit the courts in her native Colombia, she walked away with a title in Bogotá and a legion of new fans. The very next week she opened her Charleston run with an upset of second seeded Magda Linette and continued on to the semis. She still had to play qualies in Belgrade, but kept her momentum going there too, taking out, this time, third seed Shuai Zhang on her way to her third final of the year. She might have a tougher test to make the final though, with a rebounding Ana Konjuh waiting for her tomorrow, but she'll pulled off big wins before and might just establish herself as the spoiler here and beyond.

Of course, it hasn't been all great news for the shiny young things. Wünderkind Jannik Sinner, who has climbed to a career high of #17 in the world at age 19 and has notched wins over Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexander Zverev in the last twelve months, was stunned this week in Lyon by little-known Arthur Rinderknech. And 18-year-old Leylah Fernandez, one of my players to watch this year, dropped a tight three-setter today to Tomova.

And while the veterans may not be ready to throw in the towel on their long careers just yet, they will one day have to, and there sure seems to be a lot of talent waiting in the wings to claim their thrones.
Posted by Kavitha at 2:42 PM 0 comments
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May 8, 2021

A Reversal of Fortune

Remember a couple months ago when Aryna Sabalenka came back from losing ten straight games to Sara Sorribes Tormo not just to win the next twelve and the match, but to claim the singles trophy in Ostrava?

Well if that didn't teach us that the 23-year-old can turn around any situation, then perhaps her performance at the Mutua Madrid Open over the last ten days will.


Perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised to see the Belorusian powering through her draws. That recovery in the Czech Republic was part of a fifteen match winstreak between last October and this January. And while Sabalenka has had a couple of losses since, they've mostly come at the hands of truly formidable opponents -- yes there was the surprise upset by Aussie Cinderella Kaia Kanepi, but there were also real battles against the supremely talented Garbiñe Muguruza, Serena Williams, and two straight versus #1 Ashleigh Barty.

Those losses to Barty were important ones. The first this year came in the quarterfinals of Miami, which the Australian would go on to win, cementing her position at the top of the sport and quieting doubters, myself included, who questioned whether she should remain there without having played for nearly a year. The second came in the Stuttgart final, which squelched those who thought Naomi Osaka, laying claim to two Grand Slam titles but having little impact off the hardcourts so far, was more deserving. Had either of those matches gone Sabalenka's way, those doubts about Barty might still exist -- and today's result may not have so sweet.

But as it stood, it was the two winningest players on tour who made it to the final at the Caja Magica. Sabalenka, with 23 victories this season going into Saturday's match, had notched wins over rising star Jessica Pegula and doubles partner Elise Mertens on her way. Meanwhile Barty, with 25, got past the other defending Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek, three-time Madrid champion Petra Kvitova, and surprise semifinalist Paula Badosa. And both had the opportunity to make a real statement as we head into the final stretch of the clay season.

Sabalenka came out of the gate swinging, too, running away with the first set in less than 25 minutes, but as with their other recent matches, Barty wasn't ready to go down without a fight. After trading breaks to start the second, she was able to close it out and force a decider for the title. And while it stayed close in that final set, Sabalenka stunningly broke her opponent at love in the ninth game and then closed it out.

The win earned Sabalenka her tenth career title and her first on clay, and it'll help push her to a career high ranking of #4 in the world, passing Sofia Kenin. It also ended a 16-match win streak Barty had on red clay and a 10-match streak against top ten opponents.

Of course, the real question will come down to what happens on the dirt of Paris -- Sabalenka, for all her strength and ability against the top players in the sport, has never made it past the fourth round at a Major, never past the third at the French Open. I've long thought that that was a streak aching to be broken, and maybe this is the time for it to happen.

After all, if anyone can turn things around, it certainly seems to be Aryna Sabalenka.
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April 11, 2021

Where Anything Can Happen

We should know by now there are very few certainties on the clay court -- other than, of course, that if you're facing Rafael Nadal on it, it's pretty inevitable you're going to lose. But everyone else is much more vulnerable, so it shouldn't be such a surprise that so many unlikely stars were able to make such big statements over the past week, as we kicked off the now slightly longer road to Roland Garros.


Copa Calsanitas, Bogotá, Colombia

I'll start in Bogotá, where the upsets came early and came often. Perhaps it shouldn't be that much of a shocker, as the only entrant in the top fifty was a recently surging Sara Sorribes Tormo, whose run in Miami came just a bit too late to give her the top seed here. But she lost her opening match to veteran Sara Errani, and the woman who did squeak into that #1 spot, Saisai Zhang, dropped one round later. Ultimately only one seed made it as far as the quarterfinals, and Tamara Zidansek, the 23-year-old from Slovenia ranked #93 in the world, was able to stay steady enough to make her second career final.

But in Sunday's match she ran into nineteen year old Maria Camila Osorio Serrano, a wildcard who'd played only a handful of tour-level main draws before this. But the former top-ranked Junior and 2019 U.S. Open Girls' champ was understandably at home on the courts of her native Colombia, scoring wins over seventh seed Tereza Martincova and veteran Stefanie Voegele. In the final, she dropped the first set to Zidansek, the first she'd lost all week, but then rallied back to stun her opponent in a nearly three hour match to claim the trophy. The win not only earned her some serious bragging rights, but may have put her on the radar as a potential spoiler as things really start heating up. After all, we know this is the part of the season when the young guns can really shine.

Volvo Car Open, Charleston, South Carolina

The stakes were a little higher in Charleston, where four Grand Slam champions were counted among the seeds, another elsewhere in the draw. But the favorites strunggled here too -- red hot Garbiñe Muguruza retired with a leg injury while up a bagel set to Yulia Putintseva in the third round, while Sofia Kenin lost her opener and Miami champ Ashleigh Barty was stunned by Paula Badosa in the quarters. And Petra Kvitova was ousted surprisingly easily by world #91 Danka Kovinic, who beat two more seeds on her way to the final.

There, though, she met world #38 Veronika Kudermetova, the fifteen seed who'd taken out that other Major winner -- a still-struggling Sloane Stephens -- in the quarters. It was the second championship match of her career -- she kicked off 2021 with a run to the title match in Abu Dhabi, beating Elina Svitolina before finally bowing to then unbeatable Aryna Sabalenka -- but she'd had a much easier road than her opponent, not facing another seed during her run. And she made good on her favored status in the final too, breaking her opponent four times on her way to the win. It was her first career trophy and might be enough to push her into seeding territory for the next Slam. And if she keeps her momentum going, it could really make some other sit up and take notice.

Sardegna Open, Cagliari, Italy

Things went a little more according to plan for the men last week, but that's not to say there weren't any surprises. In Cagliari, young Lorenzo Musetti stayed strong in a roller coaster of a match with top seeded Daniel Evans, saving four match points before getting the win in the second round. And world #49 Laslo Djere made a big play for his third clay court title, notching upsets over sixth seeded John Millman and fourth seed Nikoloz Basilashvili on his way to the final.

Meanwhile third seeded Lorenzo Sonego was plugging away in the bottom half of the draw. The 25-year-old Italian can be a little up and down in his play -- he lost his first five matches of last season and then scored one of the biggest upsets of the year with a win over Novak Djokovic in Vienna. In 2021 too, he lost his opener at the Murray River Open to world #265 Jason Kubler and couldn't seem to get much traction at events after that. That changed this week in Italy, though -- after staging a comeback against a very talented Yannick Hanfmann in the quarters, he got the better over second seed Taylor Fritz in the semis. He was tested again by Djere in the final, but he was able to stay strong and win his second career title. For added measure, he teamed up with compatriot Andrea Vavassori to also claim the doubles trophy. And if he can play as consistently as he did this week, he could cause a lot of trouble for the favorites when the stakes get raised.

Andalucia Open, Marbella, Spain

Of course not all top seeds were so unlucky this week. In Marbella, Pablo Carreño Busta, who'd been a little quiet this year after his phenomenal end to the 2020 season, was able to make good on his spot at the top and claim his fifth career title, his second on the dirt. Without having to face anyone in the top forty during his run, he was the clear favorite in the championship match. But that's not to say we didn't see some other surprises in Spain.

Seventeen-year-old phenom Carlos Alcaraz continued his ascent on tour, stunning veteran Feliciano Lopez in his second round and following up with a win over a quickly climbing Casper Ruud a match later. The wins earned him his first ATP semifinal and boosted him fifteen ranking spots to #118 in the world. And something tells me that number is only going higher from here. He did eventually lose to finalist Jaume Munar, though -- the fellow Spaniard, ranked just inside the top hundred, had opened his run with a solid win over an often spotty Fabio Fognini. And while he couldn't ultimately get the better of PCB in the championship match, the fact that he pushed the eventual champion to three sets might bode well for his future too.



So with week one of the 2021 clay court season in the books, and the big events starting with the Rolex Masters around the corner, we're starting to see how things could shape up as we head to Paris. Can this week's winners make any real headway at the bigger events? Well, some have better chances than others. But with momentum on their side right now, it should be fun to see what they do with it.
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January 30, 2021

Gearing Up

Exhibitions are underway, warm-up events are about to start -- the Australian Open is finally on the horizon, folks! And what we see this coming week could give us a good idea of what we might expect at the first Grand Slam of the year -- not only in terms of the action on court, but also for what sporting events could look like in a still very different sort of world.


Yup, those are actual, real life fans in the stadium in Adelaide, watching Serena and Naomi battle it out. And they'll be there too when play starts in Melbourne next Monday -- officials announced this week that as many as 30,000 observers will be allowed at the event each day. That's about half the usual capacity of the Australian Open, but would still mark one of the biggest events since the COVID pandemic began.

In some ways, it makes sense that Australia would be the first site of somewhat normalized play -- already well-isolated from the rest of the world and having implemented some of the stictest lockdown measures, it's had fewer cases of the coronavirus in total than the U.S. has had deaths in just the past month, and less than a thousand fatalities in all. But that's not to say it's entirely in the clear, and some organizational hiccups have led to plenty of questions and consternation.

A spate of athletes -- and others -- who tested positive on arrival in Melbourne, plus anyone on their flights, were forced into a rigid two week quarantine and are only now getting back on actual courts. Some, like Paula Badosa, who got a positive test a week after touching down, may go straight from the hotel room to the match play, with no practice in between -- that's if she's well enough to compete at all. And, of course, there's no telling what might happen if more cases crop up as the main draws get underway.

Meanwhile this week, six separate tournaments will take place on the courts of Melbourne Park -- the ATP Cup, as well as the Grand Ocean Road and Murray River Cups for the men, and the Yarra Valley Classic and Gippsland and Grampians Trophy for the ladies. And it's the first time we'll see some big stars at work in a long time.

Ashleigh Barty, who other than an exhibition in Adelaide hasn't seen match play since the Australian last year, makes her return in a draw that features defending Melbourne champ Sofia Kenin and seven-time winner Serena Williams. And 2019 U.S. Open winner Bianca Andreescu hits the court for the first time since a knee injury took her out of that year's WTA Finals. And on the men's side Nick Kyrgios, who somehow became the voice of reason during the pandemic, is back in action for the Murray River crown.

And as interested as I am to see how these guys perform after such long hiatuses, it'll be even more worth watching whether these events go off without any major hitches. After all, the first priority is of course that everyone stays safe and that we get the virus under control. And hopefully officials have put in place all the steps we need to do that.

And just maybe sometime soon things will truly be back to normal.
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December 12, 2020

The 2020 Tennis Spin Awards: Ones to Watch

We've been saying this for sometime, but for some reason it feels more immediate this year. On the men's side, the wall of the Big Three finally seemed to show some signs of cracking as Dominic Thiem broke the seal for Grand Slam glory. And for the women, yet another teenager made her mark on the clay of Paris.

So with the door to the next era of tennis superstars getting pushed even farther open, it's only natural we look at some of the young talent ready to walk through.


Now for this award, I was at no loss of potential candidates, and as you'll soon see, I actually had trouble narrowing down the list. There is happily no shortage of rising stars out there, and we got to see more than a few in action this year.

So let's get to them!


The Women

The Winner: Leylah Fernandez

The young Canadian first caught my attention early in the year when, in her Fed Cup -- now Billie Jean King Cup -- debut she stunned then-world #5 Belinda Bencic in straight sets. But Leylah Fernandez had been a mainstay on the Junior circuit for a while, playing the Australian Open Girls' final in 2019 and winning the title in Roland Garros a few months later.

She made some nice headway on the big girl's tour straight away -- as a qualifier in Acapulco, Fernandez beat eighth seeded Nao Hibino and didn't drop her set until the final, which she lost to a rejuvenated Heather Watson. She went on to beat Sloane Stephens in Monterrey a week later and then again on the other side of lockdown in Lexington.

She wasn't intimidated at the bigger events either -- just days before her eighteenth birthday she won her first main draw match at a Major, defeating veteran Vera Zvonareva in New York, and made her way to the third round at the French Open too. Now ranked #88 in the world, she'll hit the new season at her career high.

She may not be as in the spotlight as younger players like Coco Gauff, or even as accomplished -- the 16-year-old did, after all, win a title last year in Linz. But we, of course, shouldn't necessarily hold everyone up to that standard.

And while people like compatriot Bianca Andreescu and even Iga Swiatek may have had their breakthroughs at ages not much older than hers, I wouldn't be surprised if Fernandez isn't following closely behind.



Honorable Mentions:

Denmark's Clara Tauson, who beat Fernandez in the Australian Open Girls' final last year when she was only sixteen, stunned Jennifer Brady in the first round of the French Open this year. That after making the fourth round at the Prague 125K event, where she beat former Roland Garros runner-up Sara Errani in the process. To close out the year, she scored a win over U.S. Open and Lexington Cinderella Shelby Rogers at an ITF tournament in Tyler, Texas. And at just a hair under eighteen, something tells me we've only just started to see what she can do.

A few ranking points below Tauson, and about a year older, Leonie Kung also had a solid Junior career, reaching the Wimbledon Girls' final in 2018, where she lost to Iga Swiatek. Since graduating to the big leagues, she's spent most of her time on the ITF circuit and playing qualifiers and has yet to reach the main draw of a Major. But she had a nice run at the start of the year in Hua Hin, beating Qiang Wang -- the vanquisher of Serena Williams in Australia -- and Nao Hibino -- who'd taken out Elina Svitolina a round earlier. Though she hasn't done too much since losing that final, I'd like to see her hit the ground running in 2021.

Probably the most accomplished of this group, though, is 23-year-old Paula Badosa, who snuck in a run to the fourth round of Roland Garros this year, beating former runner-up Sloane Stephens and former champion Jelena Ostapenko in the process. She currently sits at a ranking of #70, but clearly has the potential to go higher. Let's see if she can do it right off the bat.


The Men

The Winner: Thiago Seyboth Wild

There was a lot of young talent that presented itself at the end of the year, but I'll get to those. But I'm choosing to give this award to a man who really shined at the start of the season.

Brazil's Thiago Seyboth Wild was ranked out of the top two hundred at the start of the year, but during the Golden Swing put up a nice fight against Borna Coric in Rio and stunned his way to his first ATP title in Santiago just before his twentieth birthday. He beat Cristian Garin and Casper Ruud, two others who made appearances in this year's awards, to do it.

Diagnosed early on with COVID, the first tennis player we know of to say so, he was fully recovered by the time lockdown ended, but the second half of the year was a lot less productive. Seyboth Wild had a nice run at a Challenger event in Aix en Provence, making his way to the final, but lost six matches in a row after that. Hopefully he'll regroup over the next few months. It would be great to see him make a move during the South American circuit.



Honorable Mentions:

Get ready, there are a lot of 'em. But there was just so much focus on these young stars who really scored some big wins in the late summer and fall that I couldn't really leave anyone out. I'll try to make this quick.

Sebastian Korda took out John Isner at the French Open on his way to a fourth round meeting against his idol Rafael Nadal. He finished off his year with his first title at a Challenger event in Eckental, Germany. He's still ranked well in the triple digits, but the former Junior #1 and son of 1998 Australian Open champ Petr, could have an opportunity to add a lot more ranking points in the new year.

Hugo Gaston also had a breakthrough at Roland Garros, coming out on the winning end of a marathon against former champ Stan Wawrinka in the third round, then pushing recent U.S. Open winner Dominic Thiem to a decider after dropping the first two sets. The run helped the 20-year-old wildcard climb from the 200s to just outside the 150s. It'll be fun to see what he can do when the spotlight turns to him.

Lorenzo Musetti didn't make it to the French Open, but he still had a nice clay court season in 2020. The eighteen-year-old qualified for Rome and then also beat Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori before losing to that event's Cinderella Dominik Koepfer. He went on to his first Challenger title in Forli, Italy, with wins over Frances Tiafoe and veteran Andreas Seppi. His successes got him to a year-end ranking of #128, and something tells me he's heading higher soon.

Then there's Brandon Nakashima, the 19-year-old who left UVA last December to turn pro. Hopefully it was a good decision -- he scored his first Grand Slam win in New York with a defeat of veteran Paolo Lorenzi and capped off the year with a Challenger title in Orlando. He's still outside the top 150, but maybe heading higher.

And the youngest on this list, Carlos Alcaraz, at just 17 years of age. He won 14 straight ITF matches at the start of the season while ranked in the 400s, losing in the final in Antalya, Turkey, before winning his first and so far only tour-level match in Rio. He graduated to the Challengers' tour in the back half of the year, with titles in Trieste, Italy, and Barcelona and Alicante, Spain. At #141 now, he's the youngest man in the top 200, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him set even more bars next year.


Well, that was a lot, but hopefully you agree that all these guys and gals deserve some attention. And even more hopefully, they live up to my expectaions.

Be sure to come back for more Tennis Spin Awards. Up next: the greatest letdowns of 2020. In a year so strange, there were bound to be a couple players who weren't able to get on the good side of the tennis gods.

And to see all of the winners this year and in years past, click here.
Posted by Kavitha at 1:21 PM 0 comments
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