Tennis Spin

The Payoff

2012-02-12T19:04:00.000-05:00

It's hard to be patient.

That's true of life in general, of course, but also for players trying to make their mark on the professional tennis world. Some who peak early struggle to climb back to the heights they once were, while others spend years on Tour waiting for that breakthrough. But once they get there, the rewards are plenty.

Daniela Hantuchova peaked at #5 in the world back in 2003, the year after her first WTA title in Indian Wells, where she beat legends Justine Henin and Martina Hingis for the crown. She made three Slam quarterfinals in a row that year, and though she's fallen a bit down the rankings she's remained a fixture in the top thirty almost ever since. Her title tally hasn't reflected that, though -- she repeated in California in 2007, but when the year started she only had amassed four trophies, a little strange for someone who's been on the circuit for thirteen years now.

Things got a little better for Dani in 2012. Unseeded in Brisbane, she made her way to the final, thanks largely to a walkover from Serena Williams and Kim Clijsters' retirement, and followed it up by beating one-time French Open champ Francesca Schiavone to make the Sydney quarters. Her efforts didn't result in a trophy in either instance, but it was encouraging to see her hang in against the top stars.

And then she came back to Pattaya City, the site of her last title a year ago. The third seed this time around, Hantuchova didn't have much of a challenge early and only lost seven games in her first two rounds. And with second seeded Dominika Cibulkova eliminated in her opener, she had a clear shot to Sunday's championship.

Her opponent, Russia's Maria Kirilenko, had a tougher week. She had saved match point in her first match, came back from a break down in her second, and needed two-and-a-half hours to finish off her semi. She got off to a good start in the final, securing an early break and eventually winning the set in a tiebreak, but that's when her luck ran out. Hantuchova took the advantage in the second set and cruised in the third, securing her first career title defense in an three-plus hour match. And with her best start to a year since 2008, it's looking like she might have finally found her game again.

Twenty-four year old Angelique Kerber has been finding her game over the last six months or so. After winning just five Tour main draw matches in the first half of 2011, she made a surprising semifinal run in Dallas as a qualifier. She was still ranked just inside the top one hundred when she came to New York, but she beat Aggie Radwanska and Flavia Pennetta to make the semis at the U.S. Open. With wins over Sabine Lisicki and Julia Goerges in Auckland and the only German point against the Czechs in Fed Cup, she's now #27 in the world and was just granted a seed this week in Paris.

Kerber was dealt a tough draw from the start, but she got past Lucie Safarova and Monica Niculescu -- both ranked in Slam seeding territory -- to kick off her campaign. In the quarters she avenged her Australian Open loss to Maria Sharapova, taking advantage of all five opportunities she had to break the Russian's serve. She had a tougher time against Yanina Wickmayer in the semis, but after more than two hours on court Saturday, she advanced to her second career championship match.

There she met second seeded Marion Bartoli, playing in her sixth final over the last twelve months. The hometown girl had launched a few comebacks over the week, coming back against Roberta Vinci in the quarters after losing the first set and getting down breaks in the second and third. She almost did the same against Kerber on Sunday, drawing even after losing serve early in the first and eventually pushing the match to a decider after winning the second set 7-5. But Kerber got the better of her in the third, running off with the first four games, finally taking out her opponent for her first ever WTA crown. And the way she's playing, it sure looks like there will be more to come.

It's been a long time coming for both this weekend's winners -- longer for some than for others, of course. But these titles may help kick off an even more successful year than they've already had. And if they can keep up this momentum, their waits will be more than worth it.

Davis Cup Preview: A Man or Two Down

2012-02-08T18:21:00.000-05:00

A week after the ladies launched their opening salvos in this year's battle for Fed Cup, the men are ready to do the same. And though a couple top-tier stars will be out battling for their nation's pride, a few teams are left without their stalwarts and could have to really fight for what should be theirs.

Spain vs. Kazakhstan

Defending champion Spain, winner of the Davis Cup three of the last four years, won't have the benefit of Rafael Nadal -- a key player here the last few years -- but comes with some depth and experience that should give them the edge over the upstart Kazakhs.

Nicolas Almagro, playing just his third World Group tie heads up the team and is coming off his best run at the Australian Open -- losing three tiebreaks to Tomas Berdych in their four-set, four-hour slugfest, had a couple balls bounced a different way, he might have scored the win. He's been quiet recently, but on his home turf -- on his best surface -- he could be deadly. He's backed up by world #27 Marcel Granollers, admittedly new to the elite ranks. He's never played singles for Spain and hasn't had a great start to the year, but a title run late last year in Valencia -- which included wins over Marin Cilic, Gael Monfils and Juan Martin Del Potro -- tells me he's got potential to make a big impact.

But the Spaniards can't rest too easy. Though none of the Kazakhs are ranked in the top fifty, Mikhail Kukushkin made a big push to get there in Melbourne. Barely in double digits at the time, the twenty-four year old stunned Viktor Troicki in the second round, and followed it up with his second five-set win in a row, beating Monfils to make the sweet sixteen. Now a perfect 4-0 in matches that go the distance, no one can assume this man will eventually tire out. And with Andrey Golubev -- ranked #33 in the world about a year ago -- backing him up, this may not be as easy as it initially seems.

Germany vs. Argentina

Last year's runner-up Argentine team might have an even harder time. Without big-serving Juan Martin Del Potro playing this tie, they'll have to rely on some consistent, yet veteran players to hold the torch. Juan Monaco is coming off a title at Viña Del Mar and is at his highest ranking in three and a half years. And Juan Ignacio Chela, just a few spots behind him, hasn't been in the top twenty since early 2008. Perhaps their best performance will come from David Nalbandian, who's well off his career-best ranking at #84, but boasts an impressive 22-5 record in Davis Cup singles. The linchpin of the team could help carry them past a tricky German squad.

Still there will be a few close calls. Florian Mayer had some of his best results on clay last year, and though he hasn't played -- or won -- a lot in 2011, he's capable of pulling off some big upsets. He has winning records against both Monaco and Chela, and could pounce if given the chance. And Philipp Kohlschreiber, arguably the stronger player these days, beat Nicolas Almagro in Auckland and Richard Gasquet in Montpellier, while Philipp Petzschner, half of one of the world's best doubles teams, has been notching big wins in singles as well. Either might surprise us this weekend.

Sweden vs. Serbia

Like the top contenders before them, 2010 champions Serbia are also without their team leader Novak Djokovic. But the likes of top-ten player Janko Tipsarevic and doubles specialist Nenad Zimonjic should be more than enough to easily handle a Robin Soderling-less Swedish team. The underdogs' best hope might be Robert Lindstedt, ranked tenth in the world in doubles -- he's the highest ranked singles player on the team, at #309. Michael Ryderstedt, almost forty spots behind him, hasn't won a main draw match at an ATP event since July. On paper, it looks like this could be a near-Serbian sweep.

France vs. Canada

France, luckily, comes to their Davis Cup tie fully prepared with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Gael Monfils both in action. They've been solid performers in recent months, with Monfils making the finals in both Doha and Montpellier just last week and Tsonga claiming that Doha title along with runner-up spots in both London and Paris. Teaming with veteran Julien Benneteau and current doubles #5 Michael Llodra, they paint a formidable picture.

But despite the top-tier star power, they shouldn't overlook a wily Canadian team, looking for their first ever World Group win. Milos Raonic looks to be back in form, winning a title to start the year in Chennai. He might not have made as deep a run in Melbourne as he did last year, but he's certainly capable of serving his way through a few sets. And as he gets back on the trajectory he was on before injury stalled his 2011, even on-paper favorites aren't safe. And seven-time Major doubles champion Daniel Nestor could help notch an easy rubber win that may be the decider in a surprisingly close tie.

Italy vs. Czech Republic

The Italians have played the Czechs a surprising ten times at Davis Cup, with the eastern Europeans holding a 7-3 advantage. They haven't met since 1995, when the Italians secured a solid victory, but things may be going back to normal now. Tomas Berdych is coming straight off a title in Montpellier and has amassed an impressive 8-1 record on the year, and Radek Stepanek, once ranked #8 in the world, seems to be playing well again. But also look for Lukas Rosol to try making a statement in a possible reverse singles match -- ranked just seventy-eighth in the world, he is getting more play on the ATP Tour this year, and though he's only scored one win so far, the twenty-six year old may be ready to make a move.

The Italians have some firepower too, but nothing that should pose too big a threat for the Czechs. Andreas Seppi is just out of the top forty, and though he's scored a couple upsets over the last few months, he hasn't beaten a top-ten player since 2008. And Potito Starace, three times a runner-up in his career but never a ~~bride~~ champion, hasn't quite had the breakthrough I've been waiting for. It shouldn't be difficult for a strong -- and stacked -- Czech team to improve their record.

U.S. vs. Switzerland

The U.S. is technically the favorite in this match up -- with a record thirty-two Davis Cup trophies in the case, they certainly have history on their side. But even with their top player -- their top two players, in fact -- they'll likely struggle against a Swiss team that boasts Grand Slam king Roger Federer. Mardy Fish, the best hope for the U.S. in singles, has certainly put up a fight, taking sets from Fed both at last year's year-end championships and in the 2010 Cincinnati finals. But he hasn't beaten the world #3 in almost four years. John Isner doesn't have a better record, going 0-2 against Roger.

There's a little more leeway against Swiss #2 Stanislas Wawrinka. The twenty-six year old has only notched one win in five outings against the two Americans, and he's had some spotty results recently, having advanced past the quarters of only one tournament since last February. And veteran doubles champion Mike Bryan -- playing without twin and brand new father Bob -- could prove to be a great mentor for rising star Ryan Harrison as he seeks to establish himself as the next generation of U.S. athletes. I'm not giving this win to the Swiss outright, but something tells me it could come down to that all-important doubles rubber.

Japan vs. Croatia

This might be the biggest toss-up among this weekend's ties. Croatia has some real tennis talent in its ranks -- unfortunately, neither Marin Cilic, battling a leg injury, nor fellow former top-ten player Ivan Ljubicic will be representing their country. Ivo Karlovic should be able to pick up the reins somewhat, as the big-server seems to be making strides recovering from injury, and Ivan Dodig, one of the biggest flame-outs of 2011, will look to redeem himself here.

But they'll be playing on foreign ground and Japan's #1 Kei Nishikori, on the verge of the global elite these days, will certainly have the crowd on his side. One of the few players to beat Novak Djokovic last year, he's certainly got the talent to defeat most opponents. And Go Soeda, barely ranking in double digits right now, is coming off a Challenger win in Honolulu and a solid run to the semis in Chennai as a qualifier -- incidentally, he beat Dodig during that event. This one will be a battle between rising stars and those on the rebound, and whoever gets in the first punch could do the most damage.

Russia vs. Austria

If the Japan/Croatia tie is the biggest toss-up, this one might have the most at stake. There's a lot of star power on both teams, but not everyone has been playing at their best recently, and anyone might be able to take advantage.

For the Russians Mikhail Youzhny -- #1 in his country, but still out of the top thirty -- will try to build on his Zagreb title from last week. He didn't face much of a challenge from his opponents, though, so we'll get a true test this weekend of whether he's back in form. Alex Bogomolov, playing for the former Soviet Republic despite his former allegiance to the U.S., will make his Davis Cup debut, while former #3 Nikolay Davydenko may be relegated to the doubles rubber. It'll be interesting to see how captain Shamil Tarpischev chooses to stack his team.

Meanwhile the Austrians will hope that Jurgen Melzer, top ten less than a year ago, can live up to his potential. After a tough couple months, he needs to make an impact again on the singles scene -- his teammate Andreas Haider-Maurer has shown signs of potential, but has yet to make an impact on Tour. On the other hand, the sixteenth seed in World Group has a slew of doubles talent to choose from -- Melzer, Alexander Peya, and Oliver Marach are all ranked in the top twenty-five for the paired discipline. Unfortunately, of course, that strength can only translate into one rubber, max. We're going to have to see a lot more depth, if this team is going to advance.

With pockets of powerhouses, and open opportunities, showing up throughout this weekend's rubbers, it looks like we could have some big matches -- and some big upsets. Whether the heavy favorites will make early exits or tricky upstarts will finally get footing is still to be seen. But we've seen almost anything can happen at Davis Cup. And as the field gets narrowed, be ready for a few surprises.

Fed Cup Round Up

2012-02-05T20:22:00.000-05:00

Sure, most of the U.S. will have its eyes glued to the Super Bowl tonight -- go Giants! -- but there was plenty of other action on fields of a much smaller size this weekend. And the ladies who contested the first set of 2012 Fed Cup rubbers put up an effort that just might rival what the big boys are doing in Indianapolis -- and while some favorites thrived, a couple underdogs came out shining.

The defending champion Czech team had what looks like the easiest weekend of the bunch, despite a quarterfinal match-up with a tough German team. But Iveta Benesova, who's already beaten Sam Stosur and Shaui Peng this year, seems to be suddenly coming to her own on the singles circuit -- she opened the tie with a solid comeback against world #14 Sabine Lisicki. Then 2011 WTA player of the year Petra Kvitova gave the Czechs the lead after surviving a seventy-two minute, 10-8 third set against Julia Goerges. Angelique Kerber gave the Germans their only point of the tie, beating Lucie Hradecka in straight sets, but it was the Czechs who easily clinched their spot in the semis again.

The Russians, in a rematch of the 2008 final, also had an easy start against Spain as they looked to improve on their runner-up showing from last year. Maria Sharapova easily handled Silvia Soler-Espinoza in their first rubber and Svetlana Kuznetsova added to the lead by taking out one-time Melbourne quarterfinalist Carla Suarez Navarro in just over an hour. But the Spaniard rebounded nicely to upset Nadia Petrova in the first reverse singles match on Sunday, and in was left to Kuznetsova to secure the win. The veteran Russian was pushed to three sets by Soler-Espinoza, but was able to convert her only break opportunity in the decider, winning the match and rendering the doubles rubber moot. That marks the sixth straight year the Russians made the Fed Cup semis.

The other two quarterfinals came right down to the wire -- some surprising performances, both bad and good, made things a little tougher than you'd expect. The Italians, Fed Cup champions in 2009 and 2010, should have had a much easier time of things, though. But one-time French Open champion Francesca Schiavone was dismantled by world #121 Lesia Tsurenko in the second rubber, keeping the seeds even with the upstart Ukraine going into Day Two. Schiavone battled back after losing the first set tiebreak to Kateryna Bondarenko on Sunday though -- a good thing, too, since surprise Melbourne quarterfinalist Sara Errani retired a set and a break down to Tsurenko later in the day. But with Flavia Pennetta and Roberta Vinci -- both currently ranked better in doubles than singles -- headlining the final rubber, the Italians finally clinched the win after a surprisingly long decider. They'll face the Czechs in April, and will certainly need to be more consistent if they're going to make another run to the final.

But perhaps the biggest shock came from unseeded, unheralded Serbia, facing 2001 champions Belgium on their home court. Sure, the Belgians were without their biggest star in Kim Clijsters, but with some recent spotty performances by Jelena Jankovic and no follow-through from up-and-comer Bojana Jovanovski, their prospects looked grim. JJ survived a tough two sets against veteran Kirsten Flipkens on Saturday, but pulled out of reverse singles with a thigh injury. Yanina Wickmayer evened the score for the Belgians and ran over eighteen-year-old Aleksandra Krunic in the third rubber, giving her team the lead. But BoJo came through to force a deciding rubber and teamed with the same youngster in doubles to stun Wickmayer and Alison Van Uytvanck in a three-set, two and a half hour battle. The win gave Serbia their first ticket to a Fed Cup semi and the right to face the much more experienced Russians in the spring. They might be the underdogs there too, but a few big plays could give them another big win.

Whether the long shots will continue their run toward the Fed Cup trophy, or the favorites will ultimately triumph, is still unknown. But if they keep up their level of play, it sure looks like anything can happen through the rest of the year. And with halftime about to end, now's the perfect time for them to show us what they've got.

Overcoming the Withdrawal

2012-02-01T21:47:00.000-05:00

Like many tennis fans this week and, frankly, every week after a Grand Slam ends, I find myself at a loss now that the trophies have been presented. After two weeks of unending surprises, amazing breakthroughs, and heart-pounding displays of mental and physical strength, I'm not entirely sure what to do with myself these days. But not all players lasted long enough to make an impact Down Under, and some who've been in the doldrums for quite some time are right back in action this week trying to return to the top.

In Montpellier a handful of top twenty players are contesting the second Open Sud de France, but perhaps second seeded Gilles Simon has the most to prove. Since falling out of the top fifty a little more than a year ago, the Frenchman has been working his way back into the upper echelons of the sport. He had been on the comeback trail, but struggled through ten sets in Melbourne, and only won one match -- the second straight year he's fallen so early at the Australian Open. He's already had a comfortable win over Flavio Cipolla today and faces world #209 Guillaume Rufin in the quarters, so he's off to a better start this week. And if he can make an even deeper push here, and erase the memory of the last fortnight-plus, he could finally make that move back into the top ten, a level he hasn't seen since late 2009.

Jurgen Melzer suffered his fall from grace a little more recently, having peaked at #8 in the world just last April. But after failing to defend points at the French Open, falling after just one match win at every tournament since July, and losing to his own doubles partner Philipp Petzschner in Melbourne, he's now out of the top forty. He avenged that loss after qualifying for the Zagreb main draw, though, and followed it up with a straight set win over Andreas Seppi today. He gets a bit of a break in the quarters, as Germany's Michael Berrer took care of top seeded Ivan Ljubicic for him, and with the highest-ranked player left in the draw Alex Bogomolov at #34, his opportunity to go all the way couldn't be better. And he'll need to make a big stand soon if he's going to get that momentum back.

Chile's Fernando Gonzalez has fallen ever so slightly more out of favor. After hip surgery in late 2010, the one-time world #5 didn't play again until last April, when his ranking had fallen out of the top five hundred, and a knee injury kept him from making much of an impact the rest of the year. He didn't play in the Australian Open, but came to Viña del Mar as a wildcard and dispatched Pere Riba in his opening match. He gets a bit of a break next against Joao Souza and, I hate to admit, faces a field of aging veterans like Juan Monaco and Juan Ignacio Chela. If he's truly back in form, he might be able to pull off quite a set of upsets in his homeland.

All these guys have been well off their best game for various lengths of time, but they're still out there, fighting to climb back. And this week, now that the pressure of the biggest stage is off them, maybe they'll have a chance to work their way up the rankings. And with nearly four months before their next opportunity to shine at a Major, there's plenty of time for them to sate our appetite for more excitement.

Melbourne Supremacy

2012-01-29T17:37:00.000-05:00

It's hard to pick the word to best describe what went down at the Australian Open men's final on Sunday. Epic? Gutsy? Brilliant? Inspiring? Just plain long?

It was at once all those things, and probably a great deal more.

Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, the two best athletes in the sport over the last twelve months, took the court in their third consecutive Grand Slam final, ironically the first time they'd ever met in Melbourne. The top-ranked Serb came in the defending champion, twice before a winner here, while the Spaniard, himself the titleist here in 2009, had made it past the quarterfinals for the first time since. He was better rested, some would argue, having an extra day's rest after his fairly routine defeat of Roger Federer in the semis -- Novak had just endured a nail-biting five setter against Andy Murray on Friday night, one which took just shy of five hours to complete. But from the get-go neither showed any signs of fatigue.

Nadal started off strong, dropping just one point in his first two service games and earning the first break to go up 2-3. But he struggled to consolidate the next game and ended up allowing Nole to draw back even a few minutes later. He ultimately closed out the set, but Djokovic turned the tables on the world #2 for the next two hours, cleaning up his errors, finding every angle and winning all but two points on serve in the third set. When the fourth began, it looked like all the momentum was squarely in his court, but Nadal remained strong. Neither allowed a break opportunity in that set, and after nearly an hour and a half -- and a ten minute delay during which the roof over Rod Laver Arena was closed for rain -- a reinvigorated Spaniard ran off with the tiebreak and forced the pair's first five setter in thirty meetings.

The decider seemed to be going in his favor too. Rafa was able to run his opponent around the court better early, took advantage of what seemed to be flagging energy from the Serb. On his first break chance since the second set, Nadal watched a Djokovic forehand sail long and looked to be in control again. But after building a lead in the next game, he missed the line on what should have been an easy shot and wasn't able to consolidate. When Djokovic broke again to take a 6-5 lead, Rafa was unable to convert an opportunity to draw back even the next game, and after nearly six hours -- the longest match ever at a Major final -- Nole was finally able to repeat: both as champion and as Nadal's newest, and possibly most irksome, foil.

Now three of Djokovic's five Major titles have come Down Under -- that's just one short of Roger Federer's and Andre Agassi's Open Era record, and playing the best tennis of his life at just twenty-four years of age, you have to think there's more to come. It sure seems like Melbourne has become his home away from home, the place he made his first big breakthrough in 2008, the place he continues to make a stand today.

But his performance here is even more impressive than that -- he's now solidly beaten every man in the top five at the Australian Open, some in convincing form, others after surviving prolonged battles, often with little time to rest between. So far he's been able to translate that into success at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open -- the trophy at Roland Garros is probably not far away. And by continuing the domination he began here last year, it'll be difficult for almost anyone else to make a dent in his force.

"What Happened?"

2012-01-28T12:38:00.000-05:00

Those were the words we saw Victoria Azarenka say after she fell to her knees Saturday night in Melbourne. What had happened was that she had just become the 2012 Australian Open champion and the brand new #1 female tennis player in the world.

But despite her disbelief -- "I don't know what's going on," and "I don't understand," were her other reactions -- this was not something that just "happened", but rather something that's been in the works for quite some time. Making her seventh appearance in the main draw here -- the first a year after she won the Juniors' title in 2005 -- Vika has always done well Down Under. For three straight years she lost to Serena Williams, twice after winning the first set. She was my early pick to take this title two years in a row, but some tough draws at the Majors, a few emotional meltdowns, and a couple problems enduring long matches in extreme heat kept her from ever making a real push at the Slams. Despite all her strengths she her first semi came just last June at the All England Club, but she lost a tough three-setter to eventual Wimbledon champ Petra Kvitova.

She's finally had her breakthrough, though. Coming to Melbourne only days after winning the title in Sydney, she was in danger of suffering from fatigue, as she has in the past. But a more fit, mentally stable Azarenka seemed no worse for the wear from the get-go. She lost just twelve games in her first four rounds, holding serve straight through the quarters. She dropped a tiebreak to Aggie Radwanska and struggled a bit, but eventually closed out, against defending champion Kim Clijsters in the semis. In her first Slam final she was the on-paper favorite against three-time Major champion Maria Sharapova, but pundits all wondered if the once-volatile Azarenka would succumb to nerves on the big court.

At first it sure looked like that would be the case. Sharapova opened by breaking the upstart's serve and consolidated for a two-game lead. But the tables turned quickly once Vika finally got on the board. She broke Maria at love in the fourth game and came back from game points down in the eighth to finally get ahead. She faced a couple break points in the second set, but some powerful groundstrokes and a nearly immaculate game never allowed the Russian to get back in the match. From three-all in the opener, Azarenka rattled off nine straight games, delivering the first bagel set in a Major final since Serena Williams did it to Dinara Safina here three years ago. With it came her maiden Grand Slam, the top ranking, and possibly a new era in the women's sport.

It's taken some time for the new guard in tennis to really assert themselves. But now with Azarenka and Wimbledon's Kvitova breaking through, even while the previous generation's stars are still out and fighting, it could very well be their time to shine. For now, though, the spotlight has shifted its focus squarely on the twenty-two year old from Belarus, and something tells me, the way she's playing, it might stay there awhile.

A Lot on the Line

2012-01-27T15:01:00.000-05:00

The finals are set down in Melbourne, and despite upsets on both sides of the draw throughout the past two weeks, it sure seems like the best players have survived. And it's a good thing, too -- for some reason this year it seems like there's a lot more at stake than just a trophy or two.

For the women one thing's clear -- the winner of Saturday's final will rise to #1 in the sport, and people will finally stop complaining the top-ranked player doesn't hold a Grand Slam title.

Maria Sharapova's been there before, of course, first rising to the top spot back in mid-2005, but it's been a while since she's really seemed on her game. The last of her three Major titles came exactly four years ago when she was just twenty-years old, and after shoulder surgery sidelined her for the back half of that season, she fell out of the top hundred. She's clearly had a good twelve months, though, winning premier titles in Rome and Cincinnati and getting back to the final last year at Wimbledon. But a trophy here would truly cement her comeback, and the way she's been playing -- dropping sets only to up-and-comer Sabine Lisicki and her All England Club vanquisher Petra Kvitova -- it's certainly in her sights.

She'll first have to get through first-time Slam finalist Victoria Azarenka though, and my pick at the start of the year to bring home this trophy has had her own career-making run the last few months. After returning to the winner's circle in Miami -- by beating MaSha, by the way -- she picked up another two titles in 2011, came in second at the year-end finals, and kicked off this season with a trophy in Sydney. Hopefully after dominating her early round opponents and dismissing defending champion Kim Clijsters in the semis, she won't suffer a letdown Saturday -- she has the chops to beat Sharapova, as long as she doesn't let her nerves get in the way.

One thing worth noting, though -- if Vika wins the title and breaks the Grand Slam seal, she'll earn enough points to keep her far ahead of next week's #2 Kvitova. If MaSha gets the win, however, she'll have less than two hundred points more than Azarenka. That means it may only take a few tournaments more for the Belorussian to eclipse her -- and with the French Open still four months away, Vika could very well surpass her before she gets another chance to win that maiden Major. So that little respite we get from hearing about the Slam-less #1 may be pretty short-lived, and could soon have another target.

The top spot on the men's side won't be up for grabs this weekend, but there's something just as important at stake in their final -- pride.

Defending champion Novak Djokovic comes back to Melbourne after a whirlwind year brought him ten titles and three Grand Slams along with the #1 ranking. After coming back on Friday from a one-to-two set deficit against Andy Murray, my reluctant pick to win the trophy, he's gone a long way to show that last year was no fluke -- and that he's not quite yet in danger of burning out. He'll have a little less time to recover from his semi, but something tells me he'll put up just as big a fight on Sunday.

His opponent will have something to say about that, of course. The champion here in 2009, Rafael Nadal has lost his last six meetings with Nole -- all in finals, the last two at Slams -- and will want to prove his contemporary doesn't, in fact, have his number. It's another ironic situation, considering how Rafa has dominated his biggest rival Roger Federer over the last eight years, yet continues to regard him as the "Greatest of all Time". It won't be an easy win for the Spaniard -- this is his first trip past the quarters Down Under since that title run -- and Nole seems to be much more comfortable on this particular court. But if he can pull off a win over his newest adversary this time around, it could set the stage for quite the interesting year.

They might not be the match-ups we expected to see come championship weekend in Melbourne, but any of these four players have spent the last fortnight proving they deserve to be here. And after their struggles, their breakthroughs and their triumphs, they should each be proud of what they've accomplished.

Still, getting that one more win will certainly be icing on their 2012 Aussie Open cake.

1, 2, 3, 4?

2012-01-25T20:38:00.000-05:00

We're down to the final four at this year's Australian Open, and for the fourth time since 2008 it'll be a familiar set of faces battling for the men's crown. It's the top men still left standing as we enter the semis -- their rankings and opponents have been shuffled around a bit, though, and that could lead to a few more sparks than we might otherwise expect.

Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer kick off semifinal action on Thursday, the first time they've met before the championship round of a Major since 2005. Of course, the Spaniard leads the pair's overall head-to-head, winning nearly two-thirds of their meetings, but Roger holds the slight edge on hard courts and won their last battle at the 2011 year-end finals.

There were some clouds over their heads coming into this tournament -- Nadal struggled with a knee injury and the Swiss withdrew before his semi in Doha -- but both have been dominant in their matches down in Melbourne. Though Rafa lost a set to Tomas Berdych in their quarterfinal on Tuesday, neither have given any of their opponents much of a look so far this fortnight. Then again, neither have been given any challenges quite as tough as each other to date.

That should change on Thursday, though. The last time the two met in Australia -- in that amazing 2009 final -- we were treated to an epic four-hour, twenty-minute, five-set thriller which earned Nadal his first hardcourt Slam. But he hasn't made it back to the semis since, and something tells me we might be in for a different result this time around. Roger ended 2011 with one of the hottest streaks on Tour, and having gone almost two years now without a Major title, you have to think pure hunger will drive him to a win. And if he gets it, there may be no stopping him.

Of course there will be the other semifinal survivor to contend with. On Friday defending champion Novak Djokovic will face last year's runner-up Andy Murray in a rematch of the 2011 final, only one round earlier. It'll be the pair's eleventh career meeting, with the world #1 currently holding a 6-4 edge, but they're dead even on this surface. Somewhat surprisingly, though, this will be only their second battle at a Slam, and these days it's the Serb who has all the experience there.

But the Scot might not be in for a total repeat of last year's thrashing. Murray had the lead on Nole in the Cincinnati finals this past August, and probably would have won the match even if Djokovic hadn't retired. And he's coming off a title in Brisbane -- along with the three Asia trophies he earned to end last season -- so he's arguably riding the other big momentum wave in the sport. Meanwhile, after his amazing run last year, I'm frankly a little surprised Nole has any juice left in him. But both have been equally dominant so far Down Under, and there's no telling what they'll be capable of while playing at their best.

All four of these guys have been at the top of the game for so long, and are so familiar with each other's games, that there's no way to say for sure who'll come out on top. Of course, I grudgingly picked Murray to ultimately walk away with the title, and even with the depth of experience left in the draw, that very well could still happen. And the next few days of play could set the stage for an even bigger shake-up at the top of this sport over the next few months.

Where Things Get Interesting...

2012-01-23T20:15:00.001-05:00

Well this is hardly the women's quarterfinal we were expecting to see in Melbourne.

If you thought Kim Clijsters would have survived the rematch of last year's final with Na Li, you probably didn't think she'd have to save four match points to do it. If your money was on Maria Sharapova to stage her Grand Slam comeback, you might have given up hope after she lost six games in a row -- and a two-break lead -- against Sabine Lisicki in their first set last night. If you didn't think Serena Williams was going to win the whole thing, you probably at least thought she'd still be standing today, even if she'd had to "upset" seventh seeded Vera Zvonareva in the round of sixteen.

As it stands now only two of those three remain in the draw, and the battles everyone has been through could mean we're in for even more surprises.

Of course, the big surprise in this year's play has been the emergence of twenty-three year old Ekaterina Makarova, once ranked as high as #29 in the world but for now out of the top fifty. After upsetting my black horse Kaia Kanepi in her opener, she went on to take out Zvonareva in the third round and then, to the shock and awe of the tennis world, drubbed Serena on Monday, breaking the American's big serve five times.

You might think she'd be exhausted by now, that she has to run out of steam eventually, and against veteran countrywoman Sharapova in the next round, she'll surely be done for. But Makarova's only title, Eastbourne in 2010, came when she beat five top-twenty players in a row -- after she'd already battled through the qualifying rounds. So she's certainly capable of pulling off a few more, especially with a day of rest in between. Still, you have to like Sharapova's chances in the next round. Though she was put to the test Monday, ultimately her experience helped pull her past the big-hitting Lisicki, and with the draw now much more open for her, she now has a tremendous opportunity to return to the winner's circle here.

She'll probably have to contend with her Wimbledon vanquisher Petra Kvitova first, though. The Czech, who has the #1 ranking in her sights, has been playing more consistently than anyone this past week, and after a small hiccup against Carla Suarez Navarro in the second round she has never looked back. She'll meet the other Cinderella of this tournament in the quarters, Sara Errani. Though the Italian's only met one seeded player on the way to her first even Major quarterfinal, she staged a huge comeback against Sorana Cirstea in the third round and soundly defeated 2010 semifinalist Jie Zheng early Monday -- she might be able to put up just as big a fight against the heavy favorite.

The other half of the draw has played out much more according to plan. Victoria Azarenka and Aggie Radwanska both efficiently worked through their matches, setting up the only quarter where the expected seeds survived. The Belarusian is the on-paper favorite, and with a 6-3 record against the eighth seed, she has history on her side. But Radwanska did beat her next opponent on the way to her title in Tokyo last year, so anything is possible.

All of that maneuvering, though, may have opened the door widest for current world #1 Caroline Wozniacki, dogged for the better part of the last year for holding the ranking while going noticeably Slam-less. Yes, she next faces defending champion Clijsters in her quarterfinal match, a woman she's never beaten and only taken one set from. But after the veteran's tumble on Sunday, one which nearly lost her the match, Wozniacki is arguably the more fit of the two. And if she can move even slightly better than her far-more-experienced rival when they meet Tuesday, she might very well cause the non-paper upset -- and given the way her half of the draw has unfolded, that could be a ticket right to her second Major final.

So it sure looks like Serena's early exit has really wreaked havoc on the women's draw in Melbourne -- it may let some old hands rise back to the top, or it could give the new guard a chance to shine. But it won't be the only factor which determines this year's champion. If any of these ladies play their cards right, it could mean a big breakthrough.

The Quiet Killers

2012-01-21T11:37:00.000-05:00

There are a whole lot of headline-grabbing questions flying this year at the Australian Open. Will Novak Djokovic repeat as champion? Can Serena Williams return to the winner's podium? Will Roger Federer win another Slam? Can world #1 Caroline Wozniacki silence her critics and finally win a Major? Will Australian upstart Bernard Tomic continue his win streak in the second week? But while most of our attention has been focused on the glamourous stories of this fortnight, a couple players are quietly grinding through their draws without making any fuss -- and they might just take us for a bigger rise as we head into week two.

Jelena Jankovic made the semifinals in Melbourne back in 2008, but has struggled Down Under since. The former #1 fell out of the top ten last year and went title-less for the first time since 2006. But she's been unstoppable so far here, dropping just two games in each of her first and third rounds and staying aggressive. Although she's made way more errors than winners, JJ has kept her first serve percentage high and won the majority of her net approaches. It'll get tougher here on out, of course -- with a fourth round date with Caroline Wozniacki, who's won their last three meetings, she's going to have to raise her game. But if she can take advantage of her opponent's vulnerabilities, she could ride the momentum a few rounds more.

In the same half of the draw Aggie Radwanska, a player with one of the hottest ends to 2011 on Tour, has also been slowly dismantling her challengers. Though she dropped her opening set to Bethanie Mattek-Sands, she did so after digging herself out of a two-break deficit. She's been much more solid since, losing serve only once in her next two matches and eliminating talented Kazakh Galina Voskoboeva in just over an hour. She meets twenty-second seed Julia Goerges for the first time in the fourth round, but the German, much more of a force on clay, shouldn't be too much of a problem. If Aggie is able to make the quarters, it might just give her the confidence she needs to make a real play for the title.

The men's bracket has some similarly under-appreciated forces still in the draw. One-time Wimbledon finalist flew a bit under the radar last year but managed a trip to the semis in London and beat higher-ranked Jo-Wilfried Tsgona and Andy Murray at tournaments late into the fall. The seventh seed in Melbourne made the quarters in 2011, and he might be in a good position to improve on that -- after dropping a set to a tricky Albert Ramos in his opener, he hasn't lost serve since. He withstood sixteen aces from mighty Kevin Anderson on Friday and earned the right to meet fellow under-the-radar player Nicolas Almagro in the sweet sixteen. The Czech has a 4-2 record over the tenth seed, but they've only met once on a hard court, and something tells me his serve and return will get the job done.

Two-time Auckland champion David Ferrer has had a few more scares than his colleagues over his first three rounds but, still standing, he might be in better shape now. He survived a three-and-a-half hour slugfest against American Ryan Sweeting in the first round and found himself down 0-4 early to Juan Ignacio Chela on Friday. But he battled out of the hole and ultimately finished off the match in straight sets. Next up for last year's semifinalist will be France's Richard Gasquet, a man he's lost to only once in their six previous meetings. They haven't met since 2009, but the fifth seed should still be the favorite, and if he is able to set up the likely match with Novak Djokovic in the quarters, he has the confidence of a London win over the world #1 to help him go even farther.

For all these guys it might be a bit of a blessing that the Australian Open spotlight has shifted away from them -- with all the attention focused elsewhere, there's much less chance they'll fold under the pressure. Sure, if they keep up their winning ways, they'll inevitably find themselves on center stage eventually. And perhaps when they get there, they'll be able to take everyone by surprise.

Holes in the Draws

2012-01-19T13:30:00.000-05:00

With four days, two rounds and almost two hundred matches under our belts we've reached that point in a Grand Slam draw where, had everything gone according to plan, the longest shots for the title have been eliminated and we're left just with seeds playing seeds. But things seldom, if ever, work out that way -- and this year's action at the Australian Open has already cleared the path to opportunity. And not just for the favorites who've survived.

Somewhat surprisingly, the top section of the women's draw remains relatively unharmed -- Caroline Wozniacki battled through wrist injury to make the third round, and former #1 Jelena Jankovic has so far been solid. The only non-seed to battle through their immediate section of the bracket is American Chrstina McHale, currently ranked #42 in the world. She's certainly the underdog, but could very well take advantage of JJ's spottiness in their next match, and after her win over Wozniacki in Cincinnati last year, she should have the confidence to beat her again if that meeting comes to pass.

Galina Voskoboeva may have found herself a similar opportunity. The veteran Kazakh has never gotten past the third round of a Major, but after trouncing Hobart runner-up Yanina Wickmayer in her opener and edging out former #31 Tsvetana Pironkova a match later, she might be in the position to do that now. On Friday she'll meet Aggie Radwanska, a tough and improving player, but one that is certainly capable of being upset. And with either recently-quiet Julia Goerges or world #80 Romina Oprandi waiting for her in the round of sixteen, the door might be open for the twenty-seven year old to pull through.

Of course, upsets and breakthroughs have thinned out the draws for some ladies. Marion Bartoli is the only seed remaining in her section of the draw, and with U.S. Open champ Sam Stosur summarily ousted in the first round, she's the heavy on-paper favorite. But one-time world #15 Jie Zheng is playing well above her ranking and, coming off a title in Auckland, has shown she's capable of beating the top players. The twenty-eight year old beat Bartoli on her way to the semifinals here in 2010, so she has experience on her side. And with the potential of a fourth round meeting against Sorana Cirstea or Sara Errani, I wouldn't be surprised to see her go farther.

It's not all bad news for the favorites, though. My pick to win the title, Victoria Azarenka, may have the most thinned out draw of the bunch. Her fiercest competition could come in the third round from Mona Barthel, a twenty-one year old who had never been ranked in the top fifty before her surprise run to the Hobart title last week. But with Iveta Benesova and Nina Bratchikova taking out the other two seeds in her week-one path, you have to like her chances to keep her streak going at least a few rounds longer.

Things have opened up on the men's side too. Kei Nishikori, seeded for the first-time at a Major, should have met Gilles Simon in his third round, but after the twelfth seed lost a late-night battle on Thursday, he'll instead get a less formidable opponent in Julien Benneteau. The veteran Frenchman shouldn't be ignored, of course -- he beat four higher-ranked opponents on his way to the Sydney final last week -- but for a man still getting his bearings as part of the sport's elite, Nishikori might be breathing a little lighter.

After the loss of Mardy Fish on Wednesday took the last seed out of his section of the bracket, Juan Martin Del Potro also could benefit from a slightly depleted draw. The 2009 U.S. Open champion, who fell in the second round here last year, next faces world #79 Yen-Hsun Lu, who's never made it past the third round here. His biggest threat will likely come a round later from veteran Phillipp Kohlschreiber, but if the Argentine is playing at even close to his best, he has more than a good shot of getting back to the quarters.

But, like with the women, a couple underdogs are seeing less treacherous paths too. Bernard Tomic cleared much of the way himself, stunning Fernando Verdasco in a four-hour first round, then ousting former top-twenty player Sam Querrey two days later. He'll meet last year's Cinderella quarterfinalist Alexandr Dolgopolov on Friday, a man he's never beaten before. But the Australian will have the crowd on his side during this match and, playing better ball than he has in the past, might just cause the upset. His reward would most likely be a fourth-round match against Roger Federer, so Tomic shouldn't get his hopes up too high, but if he keeps improving his play, it won't be long before he's getting wins over these top guys.

Of course everything's far from certain -- even for the players who should win their next few rounds in Melbourne. But with opportunities opening up all over the place this year, there may never have been a better chance to make a real statement.

Trying to Squeak By

2012-01-17T15:48:00.000-05:00

The first round of this year's Australian Open is in the books and, as should be expected, it's not been without its surprises, its upsets and its close calls. And while some players might be breathing a sigh of relief today, others haven't been so lucky.

The Close Calls

Donald Young isn't seeded in Melbourne, but he comes to the fourth Australian Open of his career with a lot of expectations. After his deep run in New York, he's risen to the #4 U.S. player and could hold the mantle for the next generation of the country's stars. He didn't get off to the best start, though, against German qualifier Peter Gojowczyk, ranked #248 in the world. After taking the first two sets in less than an hour, Young started to struggle -- he dropped serve three times in the third set and only won thirteen points in the fourth. He was finally able to right the ship in the decider, winning just the second five-set match of his career in a relatively quick two and half hours.

Marcel Granollers may not have a ton of expectations on him, but the twenty-sixth seed -- only the second time he's earned the "safety net" at a Major -- will want to prove he deserves the distinction. He ended 2011 on a high note, beating four top-twenty players to take the title in Valencia, but lost his first match of the year in Sydney. Against wildcard Jesse Levine in his opener, he seemed to be off to a good start, serving a first-set bagel to the American in just eighteen minutes. But Levine raised his game after that and after another three hours of play was able to force a fifth set. It might have been a bit too much for him at that point, though -- the Spaniard only dropped six points on serve in the last set, surviving a four hour slugfest and earning his way back into the second round.

Things got a little hairy for thirteenth seed Alexandr Dolgopolov during his opener. The surprise quarterfinalist here last year has a ton of points at stake in Melbourne and, despite a final run in Brisbane, has been less than stellar in his recent matches. He found himself in a hole early against Australia's own Greg Jones, losing the first two sets in just over an hour. But he cleaned up his game once the third started, winning more than ninety percent of his first serves in the back half. He didn't cede a single point on serve in the fifth and, after a rocky start, closed out the match with forty-six winners to his opponent's twenty-nine.

Veteran Gilles Simon was also taken to task by a qualifier. Thailand's Dabau Udomchoke lost the first set, but capitalized on a slew of errors from the Frenchman to take a 2-1 set lead. But the world #201 eventually succumbed to the pressure of his more-experienced opponent. Simon kept the qualifier to less than fifty percent on his serve, converted on all five of his break opportunities, and after three hours and twenty minutes was finally the victor.

It wasn't just the men who struggled in their early matches, of course. Sabine Lisicki was the comeback story of 2011, but she struggled with injury again this year, retiring in Auckland with an ab strain. She looked to be in trouble against qualifier Stefanie Voegele Tuesday, too, dropping the second set and getting down a break in the third. In the hot Melbourne sun, she called for a trainer after the fifth game and was treated for what turned out to be a headache. After losing the next game, she powered back in style to take the next four, winning the set and the match after more than two hours.

Vera Zvonareva, a semifinalist here last year, drew a tough opening round opponent in Alexandra Dulgheru. The twenty-two year old Romanian was once ranked #26 in the world, but hasn't gotten past the second round of a Major since 2010. She brought her A-game against Zvonareva, though, trading breaks in a seventy-minute first set before losing the tiebreak, and forcing the Russian to go the distance when she won the second breaker after another hour-plus of play. But Bepa finally took control in the third set, winning all but three of her first serves and holding herself to just seven unforced errors, eking out the win after more than three hours.

Eighth seeded Aggie Radwanska was on court almost as long. Finding herself down two breaks against Bethanie Mattek-Sands in her first round, she fought her way to a tiebreak, one that lasted twenty-two points and ultimately secured a lead for the American. But the Pole, a semifinalist in Sydney earlier this month and a three-time titleist late last year, turned the tables on the former top-thirty player. She played immaculately the last two sets, committing only five unforced errors, compared to thirty-two from Mattek-Sands, to keep her title hopes alive.

The Upsets

It's not good news for everyone, of course. And while all these guys snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, others couldn't quite hold onto their life buoys.

Fernando Verdasco put up one of the best fights in Australian Open history three years back, and just last year survived a near-four hour battle with Janko Tipsarevic in the second round here. He would not be so successful this year. Against barely unseeded Bernard Tomic, Australia's greatest hope for their next big star, the Spaniard got off on the right foot, taking a two set lead. But the rising star turned the tables in the third, converting on his only break chance. About a half hour later Tomic had successfully forced a fifth set, and though both players kept their serving solid, the Australian never allowed Verdasco to make a dent when returning. With a margin of just five points in his favor that set, Tomic eventually stood as winner.

The scales were much more unbalanced in the biggest upset on the women's side so far. U.S. Open champion Sam Stosur is the hometown favorite in Australia, and had the slimmest of chances of being ranked #1 in the world at the end of this fortnight. All those hopes were shattered on Tuesday, however, when the #6 seed ran into Romanian Sorana Cirstea. The two first met in the 2009 French Open quarterfinal, and their careers have taken decidedly different paths -- though Cirstea seems to have peaked shortly thereafter and fallen since, Stosur has produced some of her best tennis in the years that followed -- but that didn't seem to matter much in their first round match. Cirstea toughed out a long first set, finally taking the lead after winning the tiebreak. She did even better in the second, committing fewer errors and taking heavy advantage of mediocre serving from the favorite. With the loss, Stosur falls to a 1-3 record on the year, not exactly what you'd expect from the woman who seemed unstoppable just a few months back in New York.

We've just seen two days worth of action in Melbourne, so there's sure to be more surprises in store. Whether the guys and gals who just edged out their early opponents will see their roads get easier or more rocky is still unknown, but it sure looks like there's potential for a couple more fireworks these next two weeks.

And for those who've had an easy time of things so far, they might take note that these players will be out fighting to make sure their efforts so far were not in vain.

Australian Open: Draw Analysis

2012-01-14T19:42:00.001-05:00

It's that time of year again -- just a day or so away from the first Grand Slam of the year, and we're all scouring the drawsheets to see how easy, or how hard, our favorite players will have it over the next two weeks. There will of course be many challenges along the way, but there may be a couple opportunities too. And this year, I'm going to try to give you a heads up as to where the biggest surprises are likely to come from -- quarter by quarter.

The Men

First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter

The Women

First Quarter
Second Quarter
Third Quarter
Fourth Quarter

The Men

First Quarter

Defending champion Novak Djokovic returns to Melbourne as the on-paper favorite, and if your votes are any indication, he's the sentimental favorite as well. He didn't exactly end 2011 the way he started it, though, going one-for-three in London, failing even to get out of the round robins. But the two-time winner in Australia should have an easy first couple rounds this year -- he kicks off against world #108 Paolo Lorenzi, and the highest ranked opponent in his immediate section of the draw is only twenty-ninth seed Radek Stepanek.

That's not to say things will be easy in Nole's quarter. David Ferrer leads the bottom half of this bracket -- straight off his second title in Auckland, the Spaniard looks to improve on his semifinal showing from last year. He had a strong end to 2011 too, beating both Djokovic and Andy Murray at the year-end championships and surviving a nail-biting five-setter against Juan Martin Del Potro in the Davis Cup final. His biggest challenge early in Melbourne may come from Juan Ignacio Chela in the third round, but still look for Ferrer to live up to his fifth seeding, at least in the first week

One of the most interesting potential matches ups lies in this quarter too. Andy Roddick should play wildcard Lleyton Hewitt in the second round -- neither veteran is playing at the top of his game, though the American is holding onto the fifteenth seed. In the decade-plus they've played each other, they've had some classic matches, but after losing their first seven meetings, Roddick has won the last six. It would be interesting to see what time has done to their rivalry.

There could be some other surprises lurking here. Janko Tipsarevic, coming off the best year of his career, is pitted against tough-as-nails Dmitry Tursunov. The Russian's on the comeback trail, but seemed to be getting back in the swing of things when last season ended. And Mikhail Youzhny, just out of seeding territory, could cause some upsets the first week, while Milos Raonic, last year's standout here, is back in form and could easily outperform his ranking.

Who'll survive? Odds are on Djokovic battling through the challenges, but watch for Raonic giving him a hard time in the fourth round.

Second Quarter

It's weird that I never really give the 2009 champion in Melbourne much consideration at the start of the year, but Rafael Nadal looks healthy enough to cause some damage here, and he has a pretty good draw with which to do it. First up is qualifier Alex Kuznetsov, and then the possibility of a fun second round against gorgeous Tommy Haas. Tomas Berdych, in the top half of this part of the bracket, hasn't been as impressive as he was a few years back, so at least the technical threats for Rafa are pretty low.

That doesn't mean we won't be in for some fireworks, though. Donald Young, who beat a couple seeds at his last Major in New York, is one of those guys likely to take his anger at losing the first round in Auckland and transform it into big things here. He faces another qualifier Peter Gogowcyzk, and potentially Ivan Ljubicic, but very well could be the Cinderella third round opponent for Nadal.

The section right above them is even more interesting -- John Isner, Feliciano Lopez, David Nalbandian and Nikolay Davydenko all headline. Also keep an eye out for Marcos Baghdatis, who defeated Juan Martin Del Potro in Sydney, and under-the-radar tenth seed Nicolas Almagro, who drew a rematch of his Roland Garros first round against Lukasz Kubot, a match which lasted five sets and nearly four hours. All these guys are big talents, capable of putting up long, grueling battles, so if they don't tire each other out early, any of them could pose a threat down the road. Otherwise, we might be in for some long nights.

Who'll survive? Watch the grunts do the dirty work during the first week, allowing Nadal to emerge relatively unscathed this quarter.

Third Quarter

Four-time champion Roger Federer might be breathing a sigh of relief -- after pulling out of Doha, only the second time he's ever withdrawn from a tournament in his career, I was a little worried he might not be able to continue the streak with which he ended 2011. But with a opening round match against Alexander Kudryavtsev and a second round against either world #92 Andreas Beck or #96 Eric Prodon, his first few days in Melbourne should be relatively routine.

There are more interesting early match-ups in this quarter, though. Jurgen Melzer, in the top ten just a year ago, will meet big-serving Ivo Karlovic to start -- he's won all four of their previous matches, but the Croat is certainly one capable of causing upsets. And Fernando Verdasco, one-half of one of the best matches ever played here, drew hometown favorite Bernard Tomic, one of those upstarts primed for a big run at a Slam. It might be a tougher start to his 2012 Melbourne run than the Spaniard wants.

But potentially the biggest spoiler here will be Juan Martin Del Potro, slated to meet Mardy Fish in the fourth round and, should he make it through, Federer in the quarters. The Argentine is the eleventh seed here, but we all know he's capable of much better. After missing much of 2010 with injury, he didn't make much of a dent in the Majors last year, but he's been improving his game quietly and, though he still holds losing records against both these opponents, he might be able to surprise us.

Who'll survive? If I were betting real money, I'd go with Roger, but since I got nothing riding on this, let's have a little fun and help Del Potro pull through.

Fourth Quarter

After his title in Brisbane -- and his end to 2011 -- big things will be expected from last year's runner up Andy Murray. It's a little unfortunate (for Americans, at least) that he drew young up-and-comer Ryan Harrison in the first round. Harrison's had some good showings at the Majors -- he beat then world #17 Ivan Ljubicic in the 2010 U.S. Open -- but has also had some tough luck -- Marin Cilic last year in New York, Robin Soderling in Paris -- and hasn't been able to make another breakthrough. And the way Murray's playing these days, it looks like Ryan will have to wait a few more months to have his next one.

The bigger threat to the world #4 will come later in the tournament. Gael Monfils, who's somehow never made it past the fourth round here, is one of those sleeper threats and has the potential to meet Murray before the first week is out. After beating Rafael Nadal in Doha, he's got confidence on his side, and could push through this time around.

And don't forget Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, clearly a contender for the Greatest Momentum award. After making the finals in Paris and London, he took the title in Doha earlier this month. His early rounds shouldn't present too much trouble, with his most immediate on-paper challenge coming from Marcel Granollers, the twenty-sixth seed in Melbourne. Though the Spaniard did have a nice run to take the Valencia title in November, he's much more a threat on a different surface, so the Frenchman shouldn't be worried.

There's the potential for some fun first rounds here. Viktor Troicki meets veteran Juan Carlos Ferrero to open, and though the Spaniard is probably on the tail-end of his career, he's always capable of surprising us. And Michael Llodra and Ernests Gulbis, neither a seed, both have the potential to do big things. The Latvian, still recovering from injury it seems, has more talent than he's shown recently, and if he's in form could cause his own share of upsets.

Who'll survive? Murray's the favorite, of course, but something tells me this could be Tsonga's year to shine.

The Women

First Quarter

Caroline Wozniacki held onto the #1 seed and #1 ranking in Melbourne by the slimmest of margins, and with the wrist injury she sustained in Sydney putting her performance here in question, it'll be a shock if she keeps it by the time February rolls around. Still, she was gifted a bit of a breather early in Melbourne. First round opponent Anastasia Rodionova only won more than two main-draw matches at two events last year, and though Anna Tatishvili, my pick for player to watch this year, could cause some problems as a potential second round, the Dane should be able to get through.

Last year's runner-up Na Li has a slightly tougher opener against Ksenia Pervak, last year's winner in Tashkent. Currently ranked #40 in the world, the Kazakh might be able to pull through in Melbourne. An even bigger challenge looms a few rounds later, with Kim Clijsters, Li's vanquisher last year, her most likely fourth round opponent. Kim retired from her semifinal in Brisbane, but is one of those players that doesn't lie down quietly, so she should outperform her #11 seed.

Kim might face a rematch with Daniela Hantuchova -- the woman who benefited from her injury two weeks back -- in the third round here. Often a spotty player, the Slovak is showing signs of strength already this year, having followed up her Brisbane showing by defeating Roberta Vinci and Francesca Schiavone in Sydney. I don't expect her to cause an upset, but she might be able to put up a much better fight this time.

But also keep an eye out for Christina McHale's, pitted against feisty Lucy Safarova in the first round. This is a tough one for me, since I'm a fan of both ladies, but McHale has proven she's a tough contender at the Majors, and might be able to put some chinks in the Czech's armor if given the chance.

Who'll survive? I'd love to see Caro prove all her detractors wrong, but if it comes down to a battle between her and Clijsters in the quarters, there's little chance Kim will let her get by.

Second Quarter

World #2 Petra Kvitova hasn't lost a lot of matches recently, and though she fell short of claiming the top spot when she fell in the Sydney semis, she's still one of the favorites here. She should have an easy first round against Vera Dushevina, but have a little more trouble against one of 2011's top newcomers, Irina-Camelia Begu a match later. Still, with her first seeded threat coming from Russia's Maria Kirilenko, there isn't much in the Czech's way during the first week.

U.S. Open champion Sam Stosur has an ever-so-slightly tougher road. Opening opponent Sorana Cirstea is well off her best ranking, but still might be capable of causing an upset. And Nadia Petrova, Stosur's potential third round, is somewhat inexplicably still seeded here, but she gave Sam a big test in New York -- she might be out for revenge this time around.

The most interesting contender in this quarter, though, might be unseeded Jie Zheng, a winner in Auckland last week and a semifinalist here two years ago. She faces off against young American Madison Keys to start, and has a couple easy early rounds. I wouldn't be surprised if she gave Stosur a big run for the money in their potential fourth round.

Who'll survive? Petra's got the #1 ranking in her sights, and a trip through this quarter would do a lot for her to get there.

Third Quarter

This is a tough quarter, with a lot of tricky players in the mix. Victoria Azarenka, fresh off a win in Sydney, has been playing some solid ball the last few months and should have a ton of confidence at this, her best Slam. She faces off against England's Heather Watson to start, but has a potential third round against upstart Mona Barthel, the surprise champion in Hobart, where she beat the fifth, fourth, second, and first seeds as a qualifier. The twenty-one year old jumped twenty spots up the rankings to #44, and if she hasn't exhausted herself, might be up for a few more upsets in Melbourne.

Aggie Radwanska could also cause some trouble. The winner of three titles in the back half of last year, she also made the semis in Sydney, after coming back from a deficit to defeat Wozniacki in the quarters. She's got a potentially tough opener against Bethanie Mattek-Sands, and a second round versus young Simona Halep, who's been known to cause a few upsets in her day.

Again, there could be some surprises early here. Hobart finalist Yanina Wickmayer faces Galina Voskoboeva, a woman who beat Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova in Toronto and made the final in Seoul last year. And Julia Goerges, down a few ranking spots from her peak last year, could have some trouble against spunky Polona Hercog in her opener. And Shaui Peng, the Cinderella story here last year, faces off against wildcard Aravane Rezai, once ranked #15 in the world. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one of these matches resulted in an underdog run this year.

Who'll survive? I picked Vika to win this thing from the start, so she's got to at least win the quarter to do that.

Fourth Quarter

Maria Sharapova, the 2008 champion and top seed in this quarter, had a great rebound in 2011, but quiet since even before she withdrew from the year-end championships in Istanbul, I'm not sure anyone picks her as a favorite for this title. And with a first round match against Argentina's Gisela Dulko, who actually beat her two years back in the Wimbledon second round, things will be tough from the start. And Vera Zvonareva, the second seed here a year ago, has fallen a few spots since. She's matched with Alexandra Dulgheru, who upset Petra Kvitova last year in New York -- it's not the easiest start to Bepa's Melbourne run.

It only gets harder from there. Kaia Kanepi, the surprise winner in Brisbane, has had momentum on her side for a couple months now. She should pose a big threat to Bepa in the third round. And five-time champion Serena Williams, who is only seeded twelfth here, should have no trouble creating a rematch of their Wimbledon final from two years back.

But this quarter wouldn't be complete without a couple spoilers. Shahar Peer isn't seeded in Melbourne, and might be able to take advantage of an injured Sabine Lisicki in her second round or spotty Svetlana Kuznetsova a match later. The Russian, for her part, could face a challenge from late-bloomer Chanelle Scheepers in their opener -- the South African is just out of seeding territory and after winning her maiden title last year in Guangzhou at the age of twenty-seven, she might be ready to do some bigger damage here.

Who'll survive? I'd love to give it to one of the sleepers, but experience and strength is on Serena's side, and I can't imagine her letting this one go.

So it certainly looks like it's going to be a tough road for whoever ends up winning this crown -- it is, after all a Grand Slam, and you want your champions to earn it. But with potential for more than a few surprises throughout the draws, nothing is yet certain, and if any of these matches live up to their potential, it sure looks like we're in for an exciting two weeks.

Blogcast: 2012 Australian Open Preview

2012-01-12T19:52:00.001-05:00

The world's top tennis players head to Melbourne for the first Grand Slam of the year. But with injuries plaguing the field and some young guns out to make a name for themselves, we could see a couple surprises Down Under.

For more of Tennis Spin's video content, please click the "Blogcasts" tab above.

And check out the man and woman I thought were most likely to bring home their very first Major trophies in Melbourne to see if anything's changed.

Locked and Loaded

2012-01-10T14:33:00.000-05:00

It's a tale of two draws in Sydney, with nine of the top ten women in the sport showing up for one more week of match play while the top seed on the men's side is ranked just out of single digits. But that doesn't mean there isn't a lot of talent all over the courts, and after their time off, it sure looks like everyone out there is primed to fire off a few shots before heading down to Melbourne.

Juan Martin Del Potro leads the men's field, his first match play since losing both his rubbers in the Davis Cup finals. Still, back at #11 in the world and looking once again like the champion we know he is, a couple wins here could be all he needs to prep for Melbourne. DelPo opens tomorrow against world #58 Lukasz Kubot, a man who has given top players some trouble here and there, but should be able to notch the win. And if he stays healthy, that momentum could go a long way further.

Fellow big-server John Isner is in the mix too. After his headline-driven 2010, he quietly worked himself to his current career-high ranking on the heels of a semifinal run last November in Paris. He'll have a bit of a tough run in Sydney though -- assuming he gets by compatriot qualifier Bobby Reynolds, he should face feisty Radek Stepanek in the quarters. The Czech leads their sparse head-to-head, and could deal Isner a tough match. But if he survives, I like the American's chances here.

But either favorite could face a challenge from Alex Bogomolov, who barely snuck his way into the seeds in Melbourne. He pulled out of his second round match last week in Doha, but fought his way to a win over Robin Haase earlier today. With wins over Feliciano Lopez, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Andy Murray all in the last twelve months, he's proven he can outplay his ranking, and might just parlay his strengths into deep runs here and beyond.

The ladies' field is a little more stacked, and may have a little more on the line: if Petra Kvitova extends her win streak -- she hasn't lost a match since October -- and takes the title, she'll be the #1 player in the world when play starts next week. Both she and current #1 Caroline Wozniacki fought through their openers in Sydney, but they're not the only ones to watch this week -- and the spotlight's falling on more than just the favorites.

Daniela Hantuchova made her way to the Brisbane final, largely thanks to withdrawals by higher-ranked opponents. So it's nice to see her put up a fight here. She took out my most-improved player of 2011 in convincing style, and followed through by upsetting 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone on Tuesday. She'll next be the one trying to break Kvitova's momentum, so it's only getting tougher from here, but it's nice to see her proving she deserved that runner's-up trophy last week.

And Lucie Safarova, the other non-seed left in the women's bracket, has overcome two tough challenges herself. She held serve throughout her first round match against Ana Ivanovic -- a rare occurrence in the ladies' game these days -- and was leading Svetlana Kuznetsova by a wide margin before the Russian retired due to the heat. The young Czech can be spotty, but with a quarterfinal date against similarly suspect Na Li, it's not out of the question to see her advance further.

It's a little surprising to see so many top players -- and even the ones on the edge -- in action just days before the start of a Grand Slam. There's a lot at stake the next few weeks on the tennis courts, and this week's matches will set the stage for what could be a fortnight filled with fireworks.

Same Stories, Different Characters

2012-01-07T15:36:00.000-05:00

At this time last year, did anyone think Novak Djokovic would dominate the men's Tour quite like he did? Or that Petra Kvitova would rise quite as high as she did? Well, it may be a long shot to hope for headlines quite so dramatic in 2012, but some players are already doing the best they can to make this year the best of their careers -- and we may just see some parallels this season.

The women's draw in Brisbane was plagued from the start -- top seeded Sam Stosur lost her second round in straight sets, and Kim Clijsters and Serena Williams, together the winners for the last three years in Melbourne, both pulled out mid-week with injuries.

So it's no real surprise that two unseeded players made their way to the finals. Daniela Hantuchova, the beneficiary of Serena's walkover and Kim's retirement, had first battled through two three-setters in her early rounds, and Kaia Kanepi, a runner-up at last year's final tournament in Moscow, dominated her matches the second half of the week, ousting second-seed Andrea Petkovic and 2010 French Open champion Francesca Schiavone in straight sets.

Hantuchova had a perfect record against the Estonian in their last three meetings, but Kanepi has been steadily improving her game since an Achilles injury hampered her play in 2011. Currently ranked #34 in the world, she struck first in Saturday's final, breaking the on-paper favorite in the fifth game of the match and building a nine-game win streak. It took a couple tries to close out the match, but finally on her fourth championship point, Kanepi clinched her victory, the second trophy of her career.

So what's in store for her? Remember that last year's winner in Brisbane was none other than Kvitova herself, also ranked #34 at the time, also the second title of her then-nascent career. Of course it's too early to say Kanepi will go on to win Wimbledon and the year-end championships -- but she is a three-time Major quarterfinalist, and clearly on the rise. At the very least, she should become a much more dominant force on the WTA this year.

As for the men, remember how Djokovic rode his 2010 Davis Cup momentum into a record-setting run in 2011? Well, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga may not have quite the same streak going now, but he did make the finals of his last two tournaments, each time losing to a reinvigorated Roger Federer. This week in Doha, he was slated to meet the world #3 again in semis, but the defending champion withdrew with back pain and gave Tsonga a ticket to the finals.

In the other half of the draw, countryman Gael Monfils had worked his way through a tough draw himself -- after surviving a three-set scare at the hands of Benjamin Becker, he rolled through Viktor Troicki and confounded Rafael Nadal in the semis, only his second ever win over the former #1. It seemed he's be able to capitalize on that victory, breaking Tsonga early, but the slightly higher-ranked player turned the tables, ultimately winning the match in just under two hours. It was his eighth career title -- ten fewer than what Djokovic had going into his banner 2011. Still, heading to the Major where he's had the most success -- a semifinalist in 2010 and runner-up in 2008 -- this could be his best opportunity to really break through.

Of course it's rare to see the dominating performances we were treated to last year, and the chances we're in for anything remotely close to a repeat are slim. But the way these athletes are playing, it sure looks like even bigger things are coming for them.

Here We Go, Again!

2012-01-04T18:14:00.000-05:00

Well it sure is good to be back, huh? It seems like ages since we last saw some of the sport's big stars -- in some cases it has been ages -- but as players make their way in the general direction of the year's first Grand Slam, it looks as though they didn't miss a beat.

In Chennai, slightly removed from the most immediate action, Janko Tipsarevic looks to capitalize on the momentum that brought him two titles at the end of 2011 and a first trip to the year-end finals in London. He's the top seed and opens Thursday against Indian wildcard Yuki Bhambri, and will want to make a statement quickly to prove his recent good fortune was more than just luck.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is Nicolas Almagro -- he'll want to turn around his current streak, one which brought him just a single match win since the U.S. Open. Barely holding on to the #10 ranking, the Spaniard needs to grab some points quickly to keep his spot among the elite. And Milos Raonic, one of the biggest standouts of last year, struggled a bit after an injury he sustained at Wimbledon blunted the back half of his year. If he's in form, he should far out-perform his fourth seed here.

The ladies traveled a little closer to their ultimate destination. Sabine Lisicki, 2011's comeback of the year, takes the top seed in Auckland -- impressive, considering she had to qualify here last year. With many of her contemporaries being upset early, this warm-up might just be hers to lose.

But all obstacles haven't been eliminated quite yet. Flavia Pennetta may not have re-reached her highest ranking, but she ended the year with wins over Maria Sharapova and Caroline Wozniacki. She had solid wins in her first two rounds in New Zealand, and if she can get past Elena Vesnina in the quarters -- a woman she has traded wins with for the last six years -- she could have to confidence to go even farther.

It's been a little tougher for the top names in Brisbane. Despite ending 2011 with three straight titles, Andy Murray has struggled through two three-set matches in Australia, U.S. Open champ Sam Stosur was ousted by world #54 Iveta Benesova in straight sets, and Serena Williams, just outside the top-ten, withdrew after her second round match with an ankle sprain.

Maybe the troubles of others will bode well for those trying to get their games back on track. Alexandr Dolgopolov is at his highest career ranking, thanks to a breakout last year in Melbourne and his first title in Umag, but he won just one match in his last four of 2011, so he'll need to put up some good numbers here. He survived a close call Wednesday, so he'll have to up his game next if he's going to stay alive.

And former #1 Jelena Jankovic is coming off her first title-less year since 2006. She had some flashes of brilliance last year -- a defeat of Stosur in Dubai and runs to the finals in Monterrey and Cincinnati -- but also saw her ranking drop into the double digits, the lowest in five years. She's been solid so far in Brisbane, but hasn't faced too formidable a foe yet -- if she can bring her A-game against Francesca Schiavone on Thursday, she could turn her streak around.

The start of the year can be such a question mark -- will players lose their momentum or reignite a spark that had been dwindling? So far it's been a bit of a mixed picture, but there's a whole lot of play left this year. And a couple good shots hit the rest of this week could really get these players off on the right foot.

...And a Happy New Year!

2011-12-31T17:00:00.000-05:00

Tomorrow, it will be 2012, and I'm feeling existential. It's a new year, a new beginning, a new opportunity for anything to happen, so they say. And while the top players in tennis hope to continue their domination of the sport, plenty of others will have a whole new chance to add their names to the ranks of the elite.

So in the spirit of the new, I've decided to play a little game -- I'll make my predictions for the players I think could win each of the Grand Slams, just like I did last year, with on catch: each pick will be a first-time Major winner.

With a few hours still left before finalizing their New Year's resolutions, this might give them the extra push they need to really focus on the goal.

Australian Open

Women
I've said this before, but this year I'm even more confident in my choice.

Victoria Azarenka has always had come out of the gate swinging, winning her first Tour title in Brisbane back in 2009. But she's never started a year with as much momentum as she has right now -- she capped of this past season with a title in Luxembourg and a run to the final in Istanbul. Now at a career-high #3 in the world, she could set the stage for a further rise quickly in 2012.

Australia has been the site of some of Vika's best Slam performances too -- she lost three years in a row to Serena Williams, taking a set from her twice, and last year fell to eventual finalist Na Li. But since her foils won't be eligible for the crown in my little game, Azarenka will logistically have the road cleared for her. And, of the top players in the game who've never brought home the big trophy, she seems most ready to make an impact early in the year.

Men
Of course, Andy Murray is by now a real contender at any of the Slams, but the two-time finalist in Melbourne ended 2011 with three straight titles, and though he withdrew from London, he's had a little extra time to rest up. Like Vika, if he's able to re-harnass the momentum that gripped his game since the U.S. Open, then he could start 2012 off on the right foot.

French Open

Women
Oh, how to pick a winner at a tournament which has had five different champions in as many years? Then again, we know anything can happen on the red clay of Paris, and with three of those victors claiming their first -- and, incidentally, so far only -- Major at Roland Garros, this might be the most-realistic setting in which to play my game.

There are a couple contenders for this title -- Flavia Pennetta, who had a nice comeback run at the end of '11 with wins over Maria Sharapova at the U.S. Open and Caroline Wozniacki in Beijing and has won seven of her nine titles on the surface, Julia Goerges, who put up some of her best numbers on clay last year, Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, who should have her confidence raised, now that fellow youngster Petra Kvitova re-made the case for non-veteran talent last year.

But I'm going with another choice -- one even more under the radar. Dominika Cibulkova always seems most comfortable on the dirt, and after her breakthrough title in Moscow last October, she should be able to improve her ranking in the months leading up to the year's second Slam. She was a semifinalist here in 2009, pummeling Sharapova along the way, but was not healthy enough to compete well last year. Look for her to turn that around, and maybe do something really big.

Men
It's kind of funny -- there really are a ton of great clay-court specialists on the men's Tour, but the ones playing at their prime during the last decade have been somewhat unfairly, but quite dominantly, overshadowed by Rafael Nadal since 2005. David Ferrer, currently #5 in the world, made three clay-court finals last year, including a Masters event in Monte Carlo. Nicolas Almagro has won all ten of his titles on the surface. And a slew of lower ranked players patiently mark their time at lower-tier dirt events, racking up points and honing their game.

But if anyone deserves to take home their first Major in Paris this year, it's probably Sweden's Robin Soderling. The twenty-seven year old shocked the world nearly three years ago when he handed Rafa his only loss ever at Roland Garros and made the finals in that and the next year, when he ended the great Slam semifinal streak of Roger Federer. He's dropped a few ranking points the last few months, missing some of the season with a wrist injury and some because of mono. If he's back in form by the spring and gets in a couple matches of practice before the French, he might be the non-Rafa, non-Roger favorite this year.

Wimbledon

Women
Over the last few years, a couple players have been able to break the all-Williams stranglehold at the All England Club -- Marion Bartoli made the finals in 2007, Vera Zvonareva had the same run in '10, and Petra Kvitova finally broke the spell entirely last July. But by the same time this year it might be somebody else's turn.

Sabine Lisicki made the semis in 2011 as a wildcard, on the back of a title in Birmingham and a previous-best quarterfinal run. Now healthy again and sure to move a few spots higher up the rankings by the time she travels to London, she has a legitimate shot even if my first-time winner stipulation doesn't apply.

Men
Wimbledon has long been a place where certain names dominate -- Bjorn Borg in the 1970s, Pete Sampras in the nineties, Roger Federer for most of this decade -- so it'll be hard for anyone inexperienced in the big leagues to crack through. Tomas Berdych, in fact, is the only non-Slam winner to make the final since 2003.

Among the top tier of players, Andy Murray would certainly be the one the hometown crowds would want to take the title, but having won my hypothetical Australian Open crown, he's no longer eligible for this one. I would love to see Mardy Fish, who made a career-best quarterfinal run here last year, walk away with it, but I'm not sure he's quite ready yet. And the handful of guys who make surprise runs -- Bernard Tomic last year, Yen-Hsun Lu the year before -- fall a little short of what it takes to go all the way.

The one guy who's been somewhat consistent at the All England Club recently has been Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. After suffering some drawn out matches in 2010 to make the quarters, he went one better last year, beating David Ferrer in the fourth round and then coming back from two sets down to Federer to make the semis. He went 10-13 against top ten players this year, and went on a roll to make the final in London. If he keeps up his game, he might finally make the Big breakthrough we've been waiting for.

U.S. Open

Women
The New York crowds sure do love a show, and over the past couple years we might have gotten the best ones -- at least the best non-tennis ones -- from Andrea Petkovic.

But besides being a great entertainer, the spunky German has tons of fight. Injured for most of the last quarter, she still battled to the quarters at the U.S. Open and barely gave an inch in the Beijing finals. Petko's only titles have come on clay, but she's made nice runs in New York the last two years and she'll only get better from here. With six wins over top ten players in 2011, we know she has the talent to pull off the required wins, and there doesn't seem to be a better place for the fans to get behind her.

Men
It gets tough for the men in New York -- after Federer's domination of the U.S. Open in the mid-2000s, this trophy has traded hands quite a bit the last few years. And with eight months of play to go before the last Grand Slam of the year is played, the door can open for any number of guys. In that vein, let's go with a real underdog for this trophy.

John Isner was way under the radar in 2010, thanks to a lack of any real record-setting matches. But he did add to his trophy case twice, in Winston-Salem and Newport, and grabbed a runner's-up award in Atlanta. He followed up a red-hot summer with a trip to the quarters in New York, his best ever showing at any Major. Clearly the U.S. crowds are good for him, and with a game that now is more refined than being just a serve show, he might just be able to make his way through the super-elite and bring a Slam back to the American men.

Sure, there's a lot of stuff that has to go their way for any of this guys and gals to walk away with that maiden Major in 2012 -- and since, even in my hypothetical game, they'll still potentially have to compete against the Rogers and Serenas of the world, nothing can be taken for granted. You'll notice, of course, some obvious omissions from my picks, but that doesn't mean there isn't room for some surprises.

And with a little training -- and a bit of luck -- we could be in for quite a few.

Merry Christmas...

2011-12-25T12:23:00.000-05:00

On this day, when one particular birth is celebrated around the globe, I thought it appropriate to pay tribute to a few others -- a couple new, and likely lasting, rivalries emerged this year in the sport of tennis. Once dominated by Roger vs. Rafa and Venus vs. Serena, the tide shifted in 2011, and we were treated to one rematch after another, sometimes setting the stage for a new guard in the coming year.

Agnieszka Radwanska vs. Vera Zvonareva

For two players who've been on Tour for what seems like ages, it's kind of funny that these two only met once before this year started -- in Moscow, way back in 2007. Vera was #24 at the time, Aggie #33, but the Russian had already cracked the top ten and had earned a handful of titles, including Cincinnati. Both had career highs since then -- Zvonareva was a two-time Major finalist, and the Pole had become a regular inhabitant of the single- and low double-digits -- but the scales were tipped handily to Vera's side when they faced each other again in Miami.

Zvonareva took their quarterfinal match at the Sony Ericsson Open, but that's about as far as she went. Radwanska pulled off a huge upset of the top seed in the Carlsbad final and repeated a few weeks later in Toronto. After a couple early losses late in the summer, Aggie captured her second title of the year at Vera's expense in Tokyo and was on quite a year-end roll when she scored her fourth win in a row against the former #2 in Istanbul. Zvonareva ends the year a spot ahead in the rankings, but things could change pretty quickly in the new year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pole make a real move to establish herself as one to beat in 2012.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. Roger Federer

These guys met eight times this year -- eight. And when things started, it looked pretty much the way you thought it would. Federer didn't drop a set in the first six they played, beating the Frenchman on his way to the Doha title and again in the Rome second round. He got himself to a seemingly insurmountable lead in the Wimbledon quarters, but then something seemed to go wrong. After pulling off the most unlikely of upsets, Tsonga then repeated in Montreal, beating Roger again in the round of sixteen.

Things went back to normal after that -- Federer notched a straight set victory in New York and captured his first ever Paris title, beating Tsonga in straight sets. At the year-end championships in London, the Swiss giant underscored his success, backing up a round robin victory with a three-set win in the final. He still holds a fairly one-sided 8-3 record over Jo-Wilfried, but as the Frenchman continues to improve his game, that all could change pretty quickly.

Victoria Azarenka vs. Petra Kvitova

Azarenka had the edge over Kvitova before the year began -- a year older and a bit quicker to mature, she was already ranked #26 in the world when she first beat the Czech at Prague in 2008. But things began changing last year at the All England Club, when the eventual semifinalist bagelled the fourteenth seed in the second set of their third round match.

And this year was, clearly, all about Kvitova. The pair met on all three surfaces in 2011, first on clay in the Madrid finals, then the Wimbledon semis and again playing on hard court for the year-end championship. And though the matches were close, they all went in favor of the upstart -- Vika was the on-paper favorite everywhere but Istanbul. Now ranked #2 and #3 in the world, either could take over the top spot after the Australian Open, and if they keep up their level of play, we could see the two of them battling for a bunch more titles in the years to come.

Rafael Nadal vs. Novak Djokovic

These two were no strangers before 2011 -- but in twenty-three previous meetings, the Spaniard held a large and intimidating 16-7 advantage. He'd won all their battles at Majors and every time a title was on the line. He'd lost just a handful of sets on clay, never more than one a match. When the year began, he'd spent more than eighty weeks as the #1 player in the world and had just managed to capture the career Grand Slam. He was sitting on top of the world, with Djokovic right below him.

Then everything changed.

They first met in the Indian Wells final, where Rafa took the early lead but eventually Nole rebounded to take the crown. A few weeks later in Miami we saw a similar story, though this time the Serb was pushed to a tiebreak in the third set before earning the win. We all figured things would revert once we hit the dirt, but Nole stunned the clay-court King in Madrid and again in Rome, where pundits assured us conditions favored Rafa. Then Djokovic really turned up the heat, taking his game to the Majors and decisively handing losses to the defending champion at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.

It seems only right that Rafa and Nole just met in championship rounds this year. They end the year as the top-ranked men in the sport and they spent the entire year proving it. It's certainly not the way we expected things to play out over the last twelve months, but if they stay in shape, things could get really interesting in the ones that follow.

As we get ready to start a new season, it'll be interesting to see whether these same rivalries will continue in 2012 -- and whether the results will remain the same. Some of these players are clearly carrying the momentum now, but things can change at the drop of a hat. And whoever is going to keep the advantage is going to have to bring it.

The 2011 Tennis Spin Awards: The Men

2011-12-18T10:57:00.000-05:00

It's not often that the men's Tour brings us many surprises -- for the past eight years the game has been dominated by two guys, and any chink made in the armor was short-lived.

That all changed in 2011, though, as the tide shifted from the old to the new guard. But despite this being the "Year of Nole" there were plenty other stories -- both good and bad -- worthy of note. And so it's time to honor the men with their first maybe-annual Tennis Spin Awards to celebrate their accomplishments on the ATP Tour.

Hottest Newcomer	Most Improved
One to Watch	Best Comeback
Least Follow-Through	Greatest Letdown
Biggest Surprise	Gutsiest Win
Doubles Team of the Year	Player of the Year

Hottest Newcomer

There were a lot of new stars to emerge on the tennis scene in 2011, and a couple guys really took the task of launching their careers to heart. Some were more successful than others, of course, but all made a real play against the sport's elite.

The Nominees
Ryan Harrison might have had his more impressive year in 2010, when the now-nineteen year old beat Ivan Ljubicic in the first round at the U.S. Open and very nearly took out New Haven champ Sergiy Stakhovsky a few days later. He had a few nice wins this year, most notably Milos Raonic in Indian Wells and Viktor Troicki in Shanghai, but he also had some very close calls against the super-elite -- he scored a set off Robin Soderling at Roland Garros and took David Ferrer to a fifth at Wimbledon. He still has to qualify for a lot of tournaments, but since cutting his ranking from #173 at the start of the year to top-eighty now, he's certainly put himself on the right track.

Australia's Bernard Tomic made his way slightly higher up the rankings, jumping nearly 170 spots to end the year at #42. He scored a couple upsets in Melbourne, but really made a statement at the All England Club where, as a qualifier, he ran straight to the quarters, beating veteran Xavier Malisse, Nikolay Davydenko and Soderling on the way. He just eked out a winning record on the pro Tour, too, and actually won more matches than he lost at the Majors. With his hometown Slam just around the corner -- as long as he keeps his other records clean -- he may be able to harness the crowd's support and make an even bigger statement early next year.

The Winner
And while both these guys put on a show for us in 2011, I don't think anyone had opponents quaking in their sneakers quite like Milos Raonic. The six-foot-five qualifier stormed to the fourth round in Australia, dismantling twenty-second seed Michael Llodra and tenth seed Mikhail Youzhny. In just four matches he racked up more aces than anyone else that tournament, and he was quick to show it was no fluke. Less than a month later, he beat Fernando Verdasco for the San Jose title, an opponent he bested again on his way to the Memphis final. Unfortunately an injury he suffered at Wimbledon kept him out of the game a for few months and he's still trying to get his game back, but a rise as high as #25 in the world -- from barely in the top three-hundred a year earlier -- tells me he'll be a formidable foe for some time to come.

Most Improved

It's not always easy to make a big statement on Tour when you're not one of the super elite -- especially when the men's game this year was overshadowed by the super-dominance of one player and the late-season surge of another. But outside the top five, plenty others toiled away on courts around the world, and for some of them the efforts more than paid off.

The Nominees
Florian Mayer has been around for about a decade, and though he first cracked the top hundred in 2004, a pesky finger injury took him out of the game for a bit and pushed his ranking as low as #450 in the world. Things turned around for him in 2011, though, as early season wins over Marin Cilic, Viktor Troicki and Nicolas Almagro got him deeper into tournaments than he'd been in some time. He still hasn't made a big dent at the Majors, reaching the third round in just one this year, far from a quarterfinal showing at Wimbledon in '04, but he did make the fourth round in Shanghai with wins over David Nalbandian and Rafael Nadal and claimed his first ever title in Bucharest -- quite an accomplishment at age twenty-seven. Though he ends the year just inside the top twenty-five, he did make it as high as #18 in the world in June and could push higher if he can stake a claim during the clay court season.

Similarly impressive was the performance of little-known Spaniard Marcel Granollers. Largely overshadowed by his compatriots, the twenty-five year old quietly became the sixth man from his country in the top thirty. He beat Michael Llodra and Stanislas Wawrinka in Miami and took out three higher ranked players to take the title in Gstaad. His upsets continued in Valencia, where he defeated another three seeds to claim his third career trophy and earned enough points to bump him to a year-ending ranking of #27. That could get him seeded at the Australian Open, not bad for a man who was in triple digits at the start of 2010.

The Winner
And while these guys both put themselves on the map in 2011, Janko Tipsarevic discovered himself a whole new world. The Serb had been ranked in the top hundred for five years, and though he'd scored some big wins over top players -- Fernando Gonzalez at Wimbledon in '07, Andy Murray in Dubai last year -- he'd rarely followed up one success with another and often lost to players ranked well below him.

But he made new push this year, running to the finals at both Delray Beach -- a match he should have won -- and Eastbourne -- where he retired in the third set. Things really picked up after Wimbledon, as Tipsarevic made the semis in Montreal and the quarters at the U.S. Open, his best ever appearance at a Slam. He finally made a breakthrough in Kuala Lumpur, winning the first title of his near-decade long career, and claimed another in Moscow later that month. He was a wildcard at the year-end championships and notched his first-ever win over countryman Novak Djokovic in the round robins. Now #9 in the world, he's a full forty spots higher than where he started the year, and -- more importantly -- a whole heck of a lot more confident in his game.

One to Watch

All these guys saw their star rise markedly throughout the year, but others who haven't yet broken through on the pro Tour used 2011 to set themselves up for what could be an even better new year.

The Nominees
Donald Young was long considered one of the next big stars on the ATP. A former #1 Junior and boys' titleist in Melbourne, he was the youngest player at eighteen to finish 2007 in the top hundred, a year in which he made five Challenger finals -- one of which he won. But he wasn't able to make any consistent headway on the main circuit until this year. He took out Andy Murray at Indian Wells, made the semis in Washington, and beat two seeds on his way to the fourth round at the U.S. Open. He still hasn't won a title, but a trip to the final in Bangkok suggests one might not be that far away.

Rui Machado hasn't climbed quite as far up the ranks as Young -- at #68 he finishes the year nearly thirty spots behind the American -- but he some success on the Challenger Tour helped him jump as high as #59. He claimed four titles in total and caused a few upsets on the main circuit, making the quarters in Costa do Sauipe and even taking a set from Roger Federer in Davis Cup play. He claimed the top non-wildcard seed in the inaugural Challenger Tour Finals, and though he was stopped in the round robins, he claimed enough points to bring him to his highest year-end ranking. He still has a losing record on the big boys' Tour, but expect the Portugal native to cause some more damage in the new year.

The Winner
After starting the year ranked outside the top four hundred and having to qualify for even non-Tour events, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe was the ultimate winner of that first Challenger championship in Sao Paulo. He also scored trophies in Shanghai & Bangkok and notched his first wins on the main Tour, beating Nikolay Davydenko in consecuitve weeks in Germany. Now ranked #81 in the world and the youngest among the set here, he might have the best opportunity to make waves in 2012.

Best Comeback

It's always nice to see a once-great player return to glory after time off -- for whatever reason. Some have to deal with injuries, others with a stretch of bad luck, a couple with personal issues. But despite some big obstacles a few players this year were able to turn around some long losing streaks, and a couple ended 2011 in their best shape ever.

The Nominees
Alex Bogomolov isn't technically a come-"back" -- having only barely cracked the top hundred at the turn of the century, he didn't really have much to return to. But a suspension from the game and a messy divorce kept him off the pro Tour for most of the late 2000s, so his comeback is arguably more literal. Ranked #167 at the start of the year, he beat Juan Ignacio Chela at Wimbledon, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Cincinnati and Andy Murray in Miami. Now #34 at twenty-eight years of age, he's probably playing the best tennis of his career -- kinda makes you wonder where he'd be if he hadn't taken those years off.

One-time top-twenty player Dmitry Tursunov won the first title of his career in 2006, and steadily improved the quality of his play and the stature of his statues over the course of the next several years. But an ankle injury in 2009 forced him to retire in three tournaments during the second half, and ultimate surgery took him out of the game after the U.S. Open. By mid-2010 he'd fallen out of the top five hundred and found himself having to qualify for events like Los Angeles and Bangkok. But he got back on track by the end of the year, making the semis in St. Petersburg, winning a couple Challengers in 2011 and finally taking the title in 's-Hertogenbosch, beating three higher-ranked players in the process. He ends the year at #40 in the world, and with a few solid wins in the first quarter, I wouldn't be surprised to see him seeded at the Majors by the spring.

A little more on the radar was the return of the big man, Juan Martin Del Potro. One of the few players able to break the Roger Federer/Rafael Nadal stranglehold on the Slams last decade, the six-foot-six Argentine missed most of the 2010 season after wrist surgery and fell from a high of #4 in the world to #485 this February. But he rebounded quickly, making the semis in both San Jose and Memphis, and trounced Janko Tipsarevic in a Delray Beach final he should have lost. One more title and another final, plus a near-defeat of David Ferrer in the Davis Cup championships, helped him rise up to #11 to end the year. And if he stays healthy he could regain the momentum he'd so unceremoniously lost a year ago.

The Winner
While each of these guys certainly were successful in climbing out of their respective holes, Kei Nishikori far exceeded even his best previous performances. After making the biggest ranking jump of 2008, when he ended the year at #63, elbow injury took him out of the game the following year. He was quick to pull his game together, though, and after a few unranked weeks in 2010, spent enough time toiling on the Challengers' Tour to crack double digits at the start of the year. A run to finals in Houston and Basel -- where he became the only non-top ten player to break Novak Djokovic's game in 2011 -- helped push him to #25 in the world, a comeback that should reassure any player who ever gets sidelined.

Least Follow-Through

For every tale of encouragement, of course, there is one of disappointment. While I'm not ready to write off anyone listed here quite yet, the big bang with which they kicked off the year certainly seemed to sputter out.

The Nominees
Ivan Dodig had a bit of a breakthrough early in 2011. Ranked eighty-first at the time, he was the only man to take a set off Novak Djokovic in Australia. He went on to win his first career title a few weeks later in Zagreb and made the semis in Barcelona with a win over Robin Soderling. After a runner-up trophy in 's-Hertogenbosch helped propel him to a career-high ranking of #32 in the world, though, we haven't seen a lot from the Croat -- he managed a win over Rafael Nadal in Montreal, but also notched eight first-round losses in that time. If he doesn't turn around his game quickly, that ranking will fall quickly in the new year.

Jurgen Melzer made most of his move last year, when the 2010 Roland Garros semifinalist really started racking up the points that brought him to #8 in the world this past April. But though he made a couple nice runs during the clay court season -- the semis in Monte Carlo, quarters in Barcelona and Hamburg -- he hasn't won more than two matches at an event since July and actually posted a losing record on the year. Now out of the top thirty, Melzer is really having his most success on the doubles court -- but it doesn't make me stop wishing for the days he rocked at singles too.

The Winner
Strangely though, the recipient of this award is actually at his highest career ranking as the year ends. Alexandr Dolgopolov stormed onto the scene early in the winter, beating Sam Querrey in Brisbane and stunning Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Robin Soderling in Melbourne, where he was ranked #46. He made the final in Costa do Sauipe a few weeks later and, by the time Roland Garros rolled around, had earned the twenty-first seed. He did claim his first title in Umag, but he also had three separate stretches -- one in each the spring, summer and fall -- where he couldn't win a match. Currently #15 in the world, he'll have a bunch of points to defend from the start in 2012 and, if he doesn't, his time near the top could be very short-lived.

Greatest Letdown

From one set of bad news to another, these players didn't necessarily end their year on a bad note, but they might have expected to accomplish a little bit more in 2011.

Runner-Up
American stalwart Andy Roddick had finished every year since 2002 in the top ten until this one. Falling for a couple weeks out of the top twenty, he was able to raise his play enough by the end of the year to finish at #14. He pulled off a solid win over David Ferrer at the U.S. Open and upset Nicolas Almagro to reach the Shanghai quarters, but with his only title coming -- just barely -- in Memphis at the start of the year, the era of his headlining U.S. tennis may be over. And I wouldn't be surprised to see his eleven-year title streak come to an end next in 2012.

The Winner
Now I know I've never been a big fan of Andy Murray, but even I have to admit the Brit had one of the best chances of his career to win a Major this year. It's easy to excuse the fact that he was twice before a runner-up to the great Roger Federer, but when he met what should have been an exhausted Novak Djokovic in the Melbourne final this year, he was probably the odds-on favorite. After that loss he didn't get another win until April, and though he ended the year winning three titles in Asia, injury forced him to withdraw during the London championships. He did have his best performances at the Majors, though, so that first trophy shouldn't be far away, but I'm sure many expected that seal would already be broken.

Biggest Surprise

The Winner
I guess I really shouldn't be shocked to realize Roger Federer is not one to lie down quietly. But the dramatic way in which he turned his year around should go a long way to silence those who thought his career was nearly over.

It's not that he had a bad year by any standard, but after his quote-unquote dismal start to the year -- he only won one title from January through September, and lost the only Grand Slam final he played -- he "tumbled" down the rankings to #4 in the world, his lowest in eight years. With no big trophies on his 2011 mantle and only a month left in the season, he was in danger of marking his least prolific year since 2001.

But then autumn rolled around and the tide shifted squarely into his favor. He won his two Davis Cup rubbers and sailed easily to his fifth title in Basel. He followed that up by capturing his first Paris crown, one of the few events he'd never won before, and of course capped off the year with a record-breaking sixth year-end championship. Now riding his own win-streak, seventeen straight matches since the U.S. Open, he'll begin 2012 with the best momentum on Tour and might just achieve the goal of getting back to #1.

Gutsiest Win

The Winner
Commentators called it the shot heard around the world.

Five-time U.S. Open champ Roger Federer was serving at 5-3 in the fifth set of his semifinal match against Novak Djokovic and had built a 40-15 lead -- two match points. After squandering a two-set lead, it finally seemed the Swiss would end the new #1's hope of returning to the New York final. But Djokovic ripped a forehand return of serve so perfectly placed, Fed couldn't even make an attempt to get it -- the slightest change in swing, wind, anything would have sent the winner wide and ended the match there. Of course, Nole went on to win the next point, that and the next three games and the championship two days later.

Coming back from a two-set deficit was gutsy, saving match point against a legend was gutsy, making that particular shot was gutsy. After such a strenuous effort -- both physically and mentally -- I usually wouldn't give a player the advantage in his next match. But Novak Djokovic proved that, when he's in form, he's got everything it takes to face down any opponent.

Doubles Team of the Year

Runners-Up
It's hard to give the Bryan brothers, year-end #1's for the fourth time in five years and the winning-est doubles team in history, a second place finish here. Certainly with eight more titles in their trophy case, two of which were Slams, they were one of the most prolific teams on Tour and show little sign of letting up anytime soon. But their opening round loss at the U.S. Open -- the first time they lost so early at a Major since 2001 -- and a relatively under-the-radar year lead me to push them down just a notch and give this award to one of the most surprising teams on the circuit.

The Winners
Mariusz Fyrstenberg and Marcin Matkowski were the unlikely finalists at the year-end championships, seeded last in London. One of the more loyal teams on the circuit, the Poles have been winning tournaments together since 2003. They were actually Tour trophy-less in 2011, but claimed a Challenger event in Sopot and made their first Grand Slam final in New York, beating both Paes/Bhupathi and Bopanna/Qureshi on the way. And at the Barclays championship, they eked out a nail-biter against Nenad Zimonjic and Michael Llodra and easily handled the Indo-Pak pair to make the semis. Though they couldn't avenge their round robin loss to veterans Daniel Nestor and Max Mirnyi to claim the title, they at least pronounced to the world there are a couple more teams out there to watch, and so they get this prize just for their "underdog" appeal.

Player of the Year

I don't think there's any surprise here -- though things sure got a little hairy at the end there.

The Winner
Year-end #1 Novak Djokovic was barely beatable for the first eight months of the year. He tromped to the title at the Australian Open, stunned Rafael Nadal on his "home" turf in both Madrid and Rome, and compiled a formidable 42-0 record before finally succumbing to Roger Federer in the French Open semis. Before the year was done he'd claimed ten titles in total, three Grand Slams and five Masters 1000 events, and ripped a hole through the Roger/Rafa stranglehold on the top rank.

The last quarter of the year was a different story, however. A nagging shoulder injury and what must have been a year's worth of exhaustion finally caught up with him -- he retired during a Davis Cup rubber, fell in the Basel semis to Kei Nishikori and withdrew form Paris before the quarters. At the year-end championships, which he'd qualified for back in May, he survived a scare in his first round robin against Tomas Berdych, but lost to both David Ferrer and countryman Janko Tipsarevic after that, ending his stellar season on a slightly sour note.

There's no questioning that Djokovic deserves all the accolades he got this year. But compare him to his contemporaries -- Rafael Nadal who scored eleven trophies in his breakout 2005 year, Roger Federer who claimed twelve in '06 -- and to legends -- Guillermo Vilas held a forty-six match win streak in 1977, and Martina Navratilova once went seventy-six straight -- and we start to come back to earth a little. Hopefully it won't be a quick fall to reality -- with thousands of points coming off his ranking from the get-go, there is the good chance he won't be able to defend all, or even the majority, of them. It would be a shame to see Nole fizzle out after climbing so high. But if he uses the next few weeks off to rest up and get better, he could very well make 2012 "Year Two of Nole".

So there you have it -- my picks for the best and worst of tennis in 2011. Who knows whether players' good luck will continue into the new year, or if the laggards will turn everything around. But one thing's for sure -- they all did their part to make this year a pretty stunning one for the sport.

And if we get action half as good next season, I'll consider us all pretty lucky.

The 2011 Tennis Spin Awards: The Ladies

2011-12-11T07:19:00.030-05:00

Welcome to the inaugural Tennis Spin awards!

This year I've decided to acknowledge some of the year's best -- and worst -- performances on both the men's and women's Tour and present them with the not-quite-yet esteemed honors.

There were both winners and losers in 2011. Clearly all the players endure hectic schedules, unparalleled physical demands and emotional strain I cannot begin to imagine, and not all can come out on top. Of course success and failure in this sport can be fleeting, so there's no telling how things will shake out in the future. And hopefully those on losing end of things this time around will be able to stage a comeback when the season starts again in just a few weeks. So let's not take this as some kind of indictment on the players who take home the less flattering awards -- let's just hope they come back stronger in 2012!

So, as always, I'll begin with the ladies.

Hottest Newcomer	Most Improved
One to Watch	Best Comeback
Least Follow-Through	Greatest Letdown
Biggest Surprise	Gutsiest Win
Doubles Team of the Year	Player of the Year

Hottest Newcomer

"Newcomer" is a relative term. Some were accomplished Juniors players who're just making their first strides on the pro Tour, others have been journeywomen on the ITF circuit who only began getting any traction in WTA events. Some had bursts of greatness, others made runs deep into draws, and a few were able to pull off monstrous upsets. But not many were able to accomplish all those things.

Runner-Up
Irina-Camelia Begu was one exception to the rule. Outside the top two-hundred at the start of the year, she kicked off 2011 with her seventh ITF title in Cali. She immediately followed it up by making the final in Marbella, notching wins over Klara Zakopalova and Svetlana Kuznetsova on the way. She cracked the double digits a few weeks later, and then scored her second runner-up trophy in Budapest. Now firmly in the top fifty, she should be a more consistent fixture on Tour in 2011, and might even be able to capture that maiden crown.

The Winner
Christina McHale ended the year a little lower in the rankings, but arguably made a bigger impact. Officially pro since 2007, the nineteen-year-old has been touted as the "Next Great Thing" in American women's tennis for most of that time. But, maybe to her advantage, she was overshadowed early by Melanie Oudin on her homecourt, and so got to work her game without much pressure.

That all changed in 2011. Though she continues to plug away on the ITF circuit -- she won her first title of any kind in Rome -- she achieved greater success when playing with the big girls. It began with a second round victory over Svetlana Kuznetsova at Indian Wells, a win she repeated in New Haven, and manifested throughout the season with defeats of Marion Bartoli in New York and world #1 Caroline Wozniacki in Cincinnati. Having started the year out of the top hundred, she's now #43 in the world -- #2 in the U.S., behind only Serena Williams. Of course that alone will increase the focus on her in the coming months, but something tells me the Jersey girl will be able to handle it.

Most Improved

Sure McHale's halving of her ranking is pretty impressive, but a couple other players made major strides in really establishing themselves among the elite -- seemingly from out of nowhere.

The Nominees
German Andrea Petkovic made herself as a fan favorite in 2010 thanks to her quirky alter-ego, her endearing post-victory dances, and her engaging tweets. But she spent this year proving she should be taken much more seriously on the tennis court. After a strong finish last season, she kicked off the new year with a run to the final in Brisbane, a quarterfinal showing in Melbourne and a title in Strasbourg, her first since 2009. Though she battled a knee injury toward the end of the year -- she was forced to withdraw from Luxembourg and Linz -- she made at least the quarters of every event since Wimbledon and put up a heck of a fight in the Beijing championship match. Now a top ten player -- she began the year #32 -- if she's healthy, she has the potential to make an even bigger statement in 2012.

Petkovic's move up the rankings, though, pales in comparison to that of current #17, China's Shuai Peng, who began the year at #72 in the world. She came out swinging in 2011, taking out Svetlana Kuznetsova in Auckland and Jelena Jankovic in Melbourne. And unlike many of her contemporaries, she never suffered any sustained stretches of weakness -- she rebounded from two first-round losses in the spring to make the final in Brussels and pulled off career-best runs at both Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. Though she didn't win any titles, she received a wildcard to Bali where she sadly lost in the first round -- still, she got in some post-season match play that should help her in year to come.

The Winner
Despite these ladies' successes, you can't ignore the powerhouse that Roberta Vinci suddenly became. Her move as high as #18 is less impressive than her improved play -- after marking a stretch of five first-round losses in six tournaments during the early spring, she really turned things around in late April. She took titles in Barcelona, 's-Hertogenbosch and Budapest -- her most prolific year yet -- and notched wins over Yanina Wickmayer, Ana Ivanovic and Caroline Wozniacki along the way. She ended the year slightly lower down the rankings, but by qualifying for a shot in Bali, the twenty-eight year old proved it's never too late to make a stand in this sport.

One to Watch

With so much going on in the women's Tour this year -- a very fickle top ten, several bursts and flame-outs, a new crop of young stars -- it's no surprise that so many ladies took the opportunity to make a name for themselves. They may not have broken through the most elite ranks, but their performances could set them up for some promising results next year.

The Nominees
Galina Voskoboeva has been around for nearly a decade, but only barely cracked the top hundred a few years ago. She seemed to hit her stride in 2011, though, cutting her ranking from outside the top five hundred to #58 at year-end. She spent a lot of time on the ITF circuit, but also scored some big Tour wins -- Maria Kirilenko in Pattaya City, Marion Bartoli and Maria Sharapova in Toronto -- and even made the final in Seoul. She wasn't able to do any damage at the Majors, losing the only match she played in a main draw, but reaching her prime during her twenty-seventh year, she might just be able to change that next season.

Petra Cetkovska seemingly came out of nowhere early in the summer. The Czech started the year ranked well out of the top hundred -- nearly out of the top 150 -- but started racking up points quickly on the ITF circuit. She made the finals in Johannesburg and Nottingham and claimed a trophy in Monzon. It took a while for her to gain traction on the main Tour, but a fourth-round run at Wimbledon -- which included upsets of Aggie Radwanska and Andrea Petkovic -- a semi in Palermo and a shocking ride to the final in New Haven -- she beat Radwanska, Marion Bartoli and French Open champ Na Li to get there -- tell me her rise may have even further to go.

Romanian Simona Halep has been on my radar for a while -- an accomplished Juniors champion, she started making strides on Tour last year, reaching the final in Fes with wins over Lucie Hradecka and Patty Shnyder. She repeated that Morocco run in 2011, but also began making an impact in the Majors -- she reached the third round in Australia, grabbed a set off Serena Williams at Wimbledon, and took out Na Li in New York. She might still be waiting for that first title, but the twenty-year-old can't be that far away.

The Winner
And while these ladies were able to steal the spotlight at times during the year, Georgia's (the country, not the state) Anna Tatishvili flew a bit more under the radar. Ranked #90 in the world now, she had to qualify for most main draws on Tour -- her best result was the quarterfinals in Baku -- but the twenty-one year old dig manage an ITF title in Cuneo. A winner over Cetkovska in the Acapulco qualies, she also took sets from Marion Bartoli and Vera Zvonareva in 2011. She's only just getting her feet wet, but could be primed to make her biggest move in the year to come

Best Comeback

Runner-Up
I know you want me to say Serena. Of course you do.

After almost a year off Tour, the younger Williams sister stormed to the fourth round at Wimbledon, her second tournament back. She didn't repeat, of course, and her lack of points sent her way out of the top hundred. But no one expected her recovery would take long, and with titles in Stanford and Toronto, she was the odds-on favorite to win the U.S. Open. We haven't seen her since that drama-filled final, but she racked up enough points to climb back to #12 now -- certainly not bad for a girl who played just six events all year.

Still, did anyone think Serena wouldn't be a dominant force within moments of her return? So I'm saving my accolades for someone just a bit lower down the rankings, but certainly way more under the radar.

The Winner
Sabine Lisicki barely had a chance to establish herself before an ankle injury put an abrupt stop to the momentum she'd gained in 2009. Coming off a title in Charleston that year and a run to the quarters at Wimbledon, she climbed to then-career high of #22. But she missed five months of 2010 and fell to #175 in the world to start this year. Spending some time on the ITF circuit, it took a little while to gain traction, but once she did she was quick to make big strides.

The young German got clay-court wins over Marion Bartoli and eventual French Open champion Na Li, then beat four seeded players to take the title in Birmingham. She made the semis at Wimbledon, picked up another trophy in Dallas and drew the third seed in Bali. Though a back injury forced her to withdraw from the semis, Lisicki not only pulled herself out of a triple-digit ranking, but ended the year ranked a career-best #15 -- she didn't just come back, she came forward.

Least Follow-Through

Of course, while some players spent the year proving they were no flash in the pan, others couldn't quite keep up the momentum with which they began 2011. And sadly on the ladies' Tour, there was no shortage of contenders for this category.

The Nominees
Young Serb Bojana Jovanovski came out of the gate swinging in 2011. The nineteen year old played a handful of ITF finals at the end of last year and pounced on the main Tour in January with a run to the semis in Sydney -- she beat three top-thirty players to get there. But she couldn't win more than one match at any event from March through early June and only notched one Grand Slam match victory all year. She's young, of course, so it's premature to write off her prospects for the coming season. Still, I would've loved to see her make some bigger dents throughout the season.

I'm a little less blasé about Anastasija Sevastova. A winner in Estoril last year, she also notched wins over Nadia Petrova, Sam Stosur and Petra Kvitova during the season. She came into 2011 ranked #45 and improved on even that with a run to the fourth round at the Australian Open. But then she hit a wall -- from April to August she lost seven straight first round matches, and though she scored a big win over a resurgent Flavia Pennetta in her last tournament of the year, she failed to win more than two matches at any event after Melbourne. She could still turn things around, but it's going to be a tough ship to steer.

The Winner
Sadly though, the biggest disappointment on the scene might have been Bethanie Mattek-Sands. After kicking off 2011 by winning the Hopman Cup with John Isner and running to the final in Hobart and the semis in Paris, she rose to a career-high #30 in the world. She pulled off a couple more upsets in the spring and sported her first ever Grand Slam seeding at Wimbledon. But she lost her first round there and struggled with a shoulder injury the rest of the year. She only played a few matches after that, losing to Polona Hercog at the U.S. Open, but got in a few more rounds of doubles action. Now #55 in singles, she's still the third-best ranked American in the sport, so hopefully she'll be able to recover and turn around in the new year.

Greatest Letdown

The Winner
I hate to say this, since I'm one in the minority who thinks Caroline Wozniacki deserves the #1 ranking. The twenty-one year old increased her trophy count to eighteen this year, adding six crowns from Charleston to Dubai. She notched her best ever performance at the Australian Open, defeated five seeds in a row at Indian Wells, and only lost before the third round in four events during the regular season -- impressive, considering she entered twenty-three.

But, of course, there is one trophy missing from her mantle -- one, actually, of any four we'd like to see.

Wozniacki has now held the #1 ranking for sixty-one weeks. That's more than '08 Roland Garros champ Ana Ivanovic, three-time Major winner Maria Sharapova, and even Kim Clijsters, with four Slams to her name -- combined. It's actually the ninth longest run of the twenty women who've claimed the top spot during the Open Era, and, of course, the longest without a Big One.

The young Dane was the top seed at all four Majors this year, and though she completely dominates her early round opponents, she always seems to struggle in the second week. She only scored one victory over top ten players -- against Francesca Schiavone in Australia -- and the number doesn't increase much when you count non-Majors. At some point you can't ignore the detractors who argue a top-ranked player has to consistently beat top-tier opponents at the top-level tournaments.

I don't think the situation is completely bleak -- Wozniacki is still perfecting her game and developing the weapons she needs. But it would've been nice if she'd gotten there this year. Instead we -- fans and critics alike -- will just have to wait it out.

Biggest Surprise

On a women's Tour where so few things are consistent or reliable, there's always room for some kind of surprise, and this year was no exception. Some are good -- Petra Kvitova storming through the draw at Wimbledon -- some are tragic -- rising star Alisa Kleybanova's departure from the sport after she announced her battle with Hodgkin's lymphoma. And all threw us for a loop at some point during the year.

The Winner
But maybe the most unexpected achievement this year was Na Li's shocking run to a title at Roland Garros. The veteran had kicked off the year with a bang, taking a title in Sydney and nearly winning in Melbourne. But then she fell off a cliff, notching just one victory in her next six matches.

Things turned around on the clay when she made the semis in both Rome and Madrid, but still few expected her to make so big an impact in Paris. Seeded sixth, she was dealt a pretty tough draw and had to face four top-ten players in a row the second week. Kvitova was the only one who gave her any trouble, but by the time she met last year's champion Francesca Schiavone in the final -- a surprise, in and of itself -- she was running a six-set win streak. At twenty-nine, she was one of the oldest first-time winners of a Major, and maybe one of the least likely -- sure we've had five different champions here in as many years, but for someone who'd never made it past the fourth round at the French Open and had zero clay court titles to her name, you can't help but marvel at her accomplishment.

Gutsiest Win

It's clearly not easy to win a Grand Slam. With seven matches in a fortnight, sometimes on consecutive days, and the need to beat three or four top players in a row, those up to the task have to have more than just talent -- they need to show real moxie. And, again, with four different women taking home Major titles in 2011 -- three of them for the first time -- there was no shortage of that on the court this year.

The Winner
But of the three maiden titleists over the last twelve months, none had to don quite so brave a face as U.S. Open winner Sam Stosur. Having failed to follow up on most of her successes from the previous year, the Australian had fallen a bit off the radar coming to New York. Though she'd made finals in both Rome and Toronto, she hadn't defended points from the French Open or captured a title since Charleston in 2010. So she was a few notches off a career high ranking and was just barely seeded in the top ten.

She had to put up some big fights in Flushing Meadows, too, starting with a three-plus hour slugfest against Nadia Petrova in the third round. Two days later she was back on court in a much-delayed match with Maria Kirilenko, one she should have dominated, but which instead produced the longest tiebreak in Grand Slam history and nearly took another three hours to complete. Stosur ironically had a bit of a breather against '10 runner-up Vera Zvonareva in the quarters, but endured yet another three-setter against surprise semifinalist Angelique Kerber in the the semis.

And while it took plenty of courage to get through all of that, none of it tops what it took Stosur to ultimately take the title. Facing thirteen-time Major winner Serena Williams, widely considered the favorite for the crown despite her #28 seeding, she was the much less experienced underdog that Sunday afternoon -- and playing on her opponent's home turf. Add to that the fact she had to witness and overcome another epic meltdown by Williams and still came out on top, you have to give her credit for one of the most heroic victories of the year.

Doubles Team of the Year

It's tough to be a doubles players -- the prize money is relatively minimal, you're often relegated to the back courts at major tournaments, and you rarely get any television time. And there's the ever-present task of finding a partner with whom you play well -- some teams stay together forever, others are just a flash in the pan. But when two complement each other perfectly, they can do a lot of damage on Tour.

Runners-Up
It really is a close call that gives Liezel Huber and Lisa Raymond the second place trophy. Having only teamed up this year after Huber split with long-time partner Cara Black, they struggled at the start, losing their first couple matches together. But the team finally started gaining traction mid-year, making the semis at Roland Garros. They came in second at both Eastbourne and Stanford, and finally earned their first Major together as the third seed at the U.S. Open. In total they won four titles together in 2011, including the year-end championship, but something tells me the veteran team players have a lot more left in them.

The Winners
Kveta Peschke and Katarina Srebotnik had a little more time to get used to each other, but made good quickly on their still-budding partnership. The pair came together in 2010 and lost early in their first event, but they stormed back in Dubai to make the final, beating the first and third seeds along the way. A month later they won the title in Indian Wells and made another trip to the top of the podium in New Haven.

But 2011 was when they really found their groove. The first year as exclusive teammates -- other than Peschke's Fed Cup rubbers -- they captured six titles including Wimbledon, and fell just short of taking the year-end championships. They finish the year tied for second in points, mostly because Huber racked up a couple independent of Raymond, but they scored some of the biggest wins of the season. It's too soon to tell just how fruitful the partnership will be, but so far it looks pretty promising.

Player of the Year

A few months ago when considering the possibilities for this category, there was no shortage of contenders. With four different ladies each getting their chance to shine at the Majors -- only one made two different finals -- and none of whom ended the year at #1, the leader in this race changed month-to month. Ultimately, though, this was a contest of consistency and wherewithal versus power and headlines -- and the winner eventually became clear.

The Winner
Petra Kvitova was barely on the radar at the start of the year, but boy did she change that quickly. Unseeded at Brisbane, she powered through four higher-ranked players to claim just the second trophy of her career. She caused a couple more upsets on her way to the Australian Open quarters and then stunned Kim Clijsters to capture a title in Paris.

Her luck didn't stop there, of course. After a couple early round losses in the spring, she resumed her winning ways with a title in Madrid, a runner's-up trophy in Eastbourne, and -- of course -- a career-making trip to her first Grand Slam trophy at Wimbledon. She's currently riding a twelve-match win streak, one which included a year-end championship and Fed Cup gold.

Now ranked #2 in the world, she racked up a field-leading six WTA titles on the year -- the same number as Caroline Wozniacki, but more than a million dollars more in prize money. She has thirteen wins against top ten players, seven versus top five, a perfect indoor record and a near-84% win rate on all surfaces. Her play can be spotty at times, sure, but at just twenty-one she's still honing her game. And with all eyes sure to be on her from the get-go next season, she's set the bar high for what a successful year can be.

So there you have it, the best and worst of women's tennis in 2011. Hopefully the biggest success stories will be able to keep their momentum going strong in the new year, and the rest are able to turn their luck around.

Be sure to check back next week when I bring you the winners of the men's Tennis Spin Awards. You might think you know what's coming, but trust me, there should be more than a few surprises in store for you!

Hail the Conquering Heroes

2011-12-04T19:31:00.000-05:00

What a ride it's been for the Spanish Davis Cup team.

After two years atop the world, they were unceremoniously ousted from the 2010 draw in the quarters, losing all five of their rubbers to France. But this year they reasserted their dominance and came out in front again.

Rafael Nadal, though not unsuccessful by any means this year, hasn't been quite the force he was in previous years. Though he ends the year at #2, he hasn't won a title since Roland Garros, and with only three trophies in total he's marked his least prolific season since 2004. After failing to get out of the round robins at the year-end championships, he might have lost a bit of his spunk. But he came out firing in Seville on Friday, dropping just four games to Argentina's Juan Monaco in the first singles rubber of the weekend.

Next up London semifinalist David Ferrer was forced to endure a grueling battle against 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro, getting a break early, but suddenly finding himself down two sets to one. The pair traded breaks in the fourth and the fifth, but the Spaniard was finally able to convert in both and, after nearly five hours, gave his team the two-rubber lead.

Saturday's match, which pitted Fernando Verdasco and Feliciano Lopez against veteran David Nalbandian and doubles specialist Eduardo Schwank, proved to be Spain's only hiccup this weekend. The usually strong Lopez was broken four times that day and the Argentines capitalized on the twenty-six errors made by their opponents to win the match in straight sets, taking just under two hours to do so.

But the Spaniards were back firing on Sunday, when Nadal met with Del Potro in the reverse singles match. Though DelPo had notched three straight wins against the former world #1 in 2009, since returning from injury this year, he's only taken a single set from his rival. Despite his long battle on Friday, the Argentine was able to take advantage of some weak serving by Nadal in the first set -- he won all games on return and took the early lead. But Rafa came back in the second, took the lead into the fourth, and survived a set which included eight breaks before dominating the tiebreak. Another four hours on court and Nadal had closed out the match and the championship with a four-set win over the big guy.

The win secured for Spain its fifth Davis Cup crown -- all earned in this new century. It seems only appropriate the country should be so dominant, with six players in the top thirty and another seven in the top hundred. With the depth of talent on the team, I wouldn't be surprised to see a few more trophies come their way in the near future. And this particular win could spark some even more dominance from these players throughout the rest of the season.

Davis Cup Championship Preview: Clash of Two Titans

2011-11-30T13:38:00.000-05:00

It'll be a battle of powerhouses vying for Davis Cup glory this weekend, as two teams we've become accustomed to seeing in the final try once more to stake their claim on the trophy. One's done it a couple times in recent years, while the other has a real shot at making its first trip to the top of the podium.

Home-team Spain, twice a champion in the last three years, makes its way to this weekend's final after a thrashing of last year's runner-up France in the September semis. Led by world #2 Rafael Nadal and Barclays Championship semifinalist David Ferrer, they've got higher-profile names on their side, but their star power may extend deeper than than.

Feliciano Lopez has clawed his way back to a career-high ranking at #20, thanks to some solid play since the spring. He made his first championship match in over a year in Belgrade and stunned Andy Roddick to make the quarters at Wimbledon. He beat Mardy Fish in a long first rubber back in July and notched a win over Juan Martin Del Potro in the 2008 final. He'll probably get relegated to the doubles rubber, but might be able to score some key wins in the reverse singles matches.

And former top-ten player Fernando Verdasco has been a bit out of the spotlight recently, but still ranks in the top twenty-five. He's won both singles rubbers he's played at Davis Cup this year and has scored victories over higher-ranked players like Marin Cilic, Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Almagro this year. He's had a less successful year in the doubles circuit, but with the crowd on his side and playing for country, he could still do some damage.

The Spaniards will have to face a pretty stacked Argentine team though. The three-time second place finishers secured their spot in the final after top-ranked Juan Martin Del Potro benefited from a retirement by Novak Djokovic back in September -- that gave the South Americans an insurmountable 3-1 lead over defending champs Serbia. DelPo, spitting distance from returning to the top ten, leads the team in the finals, coming off a semifinal run in Valencia and a runner-up placing in Vienna. He has an impressing 9-2 record in Davis Cup play, and though he has lost two matches to Rafael Nadal this year, he had a nice streak going before that, and soundly defeated David Ferrer in their last two meetings.

Veteran David Nalbandian could also feature highly in this weekend's rubbers. He's fallen a bit in the rankings, but won both his singles matches this year, including one over then-#16 Viktor Troicki. Never one that should be taken lightly, he has fairly solid records against the likely singles representatives. And with top-thirty players like Juan Monaco and Juan Ignacio Chela both in the mix, there's a lot of talent in the pool for captain Tito Vazquez to choose from.

Spain has won all of the teams' previous ties, and soundly defeated the Argentinians in the 2008 final. But some new blood could help ignite a fire in the underdogs. If Del Potro, still really developing his game, is in top form, it might be a closer fight than we think. And with the pride of their nations resting on their shoulders, the motivation to win has never been greater.

Mean Reversion

2011-11-27T18:22:00.000-05:00

It's a common phenomenon of statistics -- day-to-day events can deviate from a trend, sometimes very drastically, but eventually, over time things go back to normal, and the trend is resumed, almost as if nothing changed.

The past two years have felt a bit like an aberration in men's tennis, as the man we've come to expect to dominate the sport has taken a spot on the sidelines as younger upstarts stole the show. But this week's action in London brought us all back down to earth, and put Roger Federer back on top.

The long-time world #1 came to the year-end championships with his lowest ranking since 2003, but he was riding a solid streak during the fall that brought with it titles in Basel and Paris. He dominated his round robin matches earlier in the week, dropping sets here and there but handing Rafael Nadal, last year's runner-up, a one-sided defeat in which the Spaniard only won three games. Against David Ferrer in the semis, he needed less than ninety minutes to take out the 2007 Masters Cup finalist.

In Sunday's final he took on the man who's come to be his new nemesis this year. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga staged one of the biggest upsets of the year, when he came back from two sets down to take out Federer in the Wimbledon quarters and repeated the win a few weeks later in Montreal. He'd lost their most recent meetings, but made a valiant stand post-U.S. Open with two titles and a Master's final of his own. In the round robins the Frenchman was able to make up for a three-set loss to Roger with wins over Mardy Fish and Rafael Nadal and exacted revenge over Tomas Berdych in the semis for his Beijing loss. The win gave him entry to his first World Tour Final championship match -- not bad for what was just his second appearance at the year-ending event.

In Sunday's final both men came out on fire, but for the first half of the opening set at least, it seemed Tsonga was the stronger one, dropping just a handful of points on his serve. But in the eighth game, Federer built up a 0-40 lead and converted the only break chance of the set. The Swiss built up a 4-2 lead in the second and had a few chances to get an insurance break, when things turned around -- Tsonga denied Fed the chance to serve out the championship and forced a tiebreak. He came back from a 2-5 deficit and saved match point, finally winning the set and forcing a decider.

Things stayed close in the third to start, but the stats favored the sixteen-time Grand Slam champion. Federer lost just one point on his first serve, three on serve in total. He made a bigger dent on return, too, converting his third break chance of the set and finally closing out the match in just under two-and-a-half hours.

The win brought Roger his record sixth year-end championship, sending him ahead of both Ivan Lendl and Pete Sampras in total titles. And maybe more importantly, it reminded us all he's still a real contender for the big titles in 2012 -- despite what we may have been taught the last few years. It's clear Roger Federer's career is far from over, as his run over the last several months proves, and with the year culminating in his biggest trophy of the season, it might mean his trend is on course for quite some time.

What a Way to End!

2011-11-25T20:42:00.001-05:00

It's not very often that the top seeds in the men's draw of a tournament do not make it through to the end, especially when all the top seeds are entered. In fact, at least three -- and often all four -- of the players in the semifinals of the last three Grand Slams ranked at the top of their quarters of the bracket. We've become accustomed to seeing the best beat the best under the toughest circumstances, so we should expect that to continue, even at the year-end championships.

But something strange happened this week in London. World #3 Andy Murray withdrew after losing his first match Monday, French Open champion Rafael Nadal pulled out a tough win against Mardy Fish and then lost two in a row to end his hopes of that maiden year-end title, and then Novak Djokovic, almost unbeatable for the first nine months of the year, dropped his first match ever to countryman Janko Tipsarevic -- the wildcard entry after Murray's withdrawal -- earlier today, being stopped short of the semis for the first time all year*.

So that leaves a somewhat motley crew in the semis of this years ATP Championships. Roger Federer, five times a winner, is the clear favorite. Though he lost sets to both Fish and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga during the round robins, he's been loss-less since the U.S. Open semis, with titles in Basel and Paris to his name. It's quite a turnaround for a man who fell to his lowest ranking since 2003 and went oh-for-four at the Majors this year. For what's ostensibly his least prolific year in quite some time, he might just pull momentum squarely onto his side.

But there are some formidable opponents in his way. David Ferrer will meet Roger in the semis after winning his first five sets in London. He ended up losing earlier today to Tomas Berdych, but the Spaniard, ranked #5 in the world, was relentless against Murray and Djokovic earlier in the week. He's never beaten Federer, only taken one set off him on hardcourts, but Ferrer made the finals at the Tennis Masters Cup in 2007 and has been relentless this week. It might be a harder fought semi than we expect.

In the second semifinal Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will try to make his fourth final since the U.S. Open. The Frenchman has had a more-than-solid autumn, and with wins over Nadal and Fish this week, he's improved his previously mediocre record versus top ten players. He didn't make it out of the round robins in his last appearance at the Championships in 2008, and with the run he's had over the last few months, it sure looks like he can go one better this time.

But he'll have to face Tomas Berdych in Saturday's semi, a man who came back from the brink a few times in London. After enduring a tough defeat by Novak Djokovic on Monday, he found himself in an early hole two days later against wildcard Tipsarevic, a man against whom he had a 1-4 record. Not only did he pull off that win, he repeated the rally today against Ferrer, whom he hadn't defeated since Hamburg in 2005. The Czech has also saved his best play for late in the year, having won a title in Beijing where he incidentally beat Tsonga in the semis, so there's no reason to believe he won't put up a fight again.

It's been quite a reversal of what we've come to expect this year -- the only two men to have won Majors in 2011 won't be fighting for the final title of the year. But for the players left, this is exactly the way they wanted to finish the season, and if they can last just a few matches longer, they'll finally reap that ultimate reward.

* Djokovic withdrew from the quarterfinals in Paris, but did not actually lose a match that tournament.

Not Exactly What You'd Expect

2011-11-21T20:53:00.000-05:00

The first set of round robin matches is in the books at this year's World Tour Finals in London, and though we are far from deciding who will take home the prize in the end, the surprises -- and the surprising battles -- we've seen so far make choosing the champion this early a largely futile task.

In a rematch of last week's final in Paris -- and a couple other matches this year -- Roger Federer took on Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the first singles match of the week. He got off to a quick start, taking the first set while only dropping three points on serve, but the Frenchman wholly reversed the score in the second, losing just two points himself. They kept things close in the decider, holding serve for the first nine games before Tsonga fell to 0-40 in the tenth. Federer failed to convert his first match point, but he was ultimately too much for the sixth seed. After just under ninety minutes, albeit through a bit of a scare, Federer had extended his win streak to thirteen consecutive matches since the U.S. Open and gave himself a further leg up on his competitors.

Rafael Nadal had a slightly tougher time of it on Sunday. Last year's runner-up took on first-time finalist Mardy Fish, and broke the American in the first game of the match. But, like Tsonga before him, Fish got the lead in the second and though he failed to convert break chances on Rafa's serve, he was eventually able to serve out the set and force a third. That's when things got exciting, though -- Nadal broke again early, but Fish pulled back even; Fish got his own lead, but failed to consolidate. After almost three hours of play, the two were pushed to a tiebreak, where the former #1 took control. In a match that ended near midnight, Nadal was the ultimate winner, staying in the top half of his group -- at least for now.

Monday's singles action kicked off with the biggest shock of the tournament so far. Third seeded Andy Murray, a winner of three titles since the U.S. Open, took on David Ferrer, who hadn't captured a trophy since Acapulco in February. The Spaniard, who'd lost his last four matches to Murray, found himself in an early deficit this morning but quickly pulled back even. Though both players had plenty of chances to cause damage on his return games, it was Ferrer who took advantage again to close out the set. Murray was again the aggressor early in the second, but the pair traded breaks throughout with the fifth seed ultimately denying the Brit a tiebreak and notching the win -- his first on a hardcourt, and the first real upset in London.

We were almost treated to another surprise when world #1 Novak DJokovic took on second-time final qualifier Tomas Berdych in Monday's second match. The erstwhile Wimbledon runner-up built a 3-0 lead on the Serb early and held on long enough to take the first set. The Czech's quality of play dropped a bit in the second, getting fewer than half of his first serves in, but got the break in the decider and a 4-2 lead. But Djokovic, who'd only lost one match to a player out of the top five all year, immediately broke back. Berdych earned himself a pair of match points a few games later, but both were rejected. In the tiebreak, Nole took control early and finally closed it out after more than two-and-a-half hours of play.

So there was only one true upset early in this year's World Tour Final, but even the favorites were put through the ringer for their first wins. It just goes to show that pretty much any of these guys is a real contender for the title, and with a lot of round robin bouts still left to go, there's plenty of room for things to turn around -- and quickly.

London Calling

2011-11-18T14:30:00.001-05:00

This year's field at the ATP Championships is an interesting mix. Peppered with a mix of veterans and newbies -- relative or otherwise -- and plagued by injury, fatigue and some recent unexpected results, it might be harder to pick a favorite that you'd think. And it might open some holes just big enough to sneak through.

Group A
The first group of round robin matches is headlined by world #1 Novak Djokovic, who comes to London with a two-tournament (three, if you count the Davis Cup semis) losing streak -- something he hasn't had at any other time this year. He continues to struggle with a shoulder injury, and likely exhaustion, but he boasts the only winning record against the others in his group, and as the winner here three years ago, he certainly has the most experience.

For his first round robin match, Nole will play Tomas Berdych, appearing in London for the second straight time. The Czech, who really broke out in 2010, wasn't able to defend a lot of his points in the first half of the year, but picked the perfect time to play well again. He took the title in Beijing and beat three tough players to make the Paris semis. He's lost more than twice as many matches as he's won against the group, but if he's able to get an early jump on his opponents, he could cause damage.

Andy Murray had been riding one of the most successful streaks post-U.S. Open, winning three titles in Asia before losing to Berdych at the Paris Masters. Somewhat surprisingly, he has losing records against two of his three round robin groupies, but recent wins over Nole and his first opponent David Ferrer should give him confidence this week.

Ferrer can't be counted out, though. The veteran Spaniard is playing his third World Tour Final -- he was runner-up to Roger Federer in 2007 -- and has a fairly decent record against the guys he plays early this year. He hasn't won against any of these guys this year, but as one of the few in the field who hasn't been nursing injuries or illness the last few months, he could very well catch someone off guard.

Group B
Group B in London may be slightly more stacked with experience this year, but it's no less impenetrable. World #2 Rafael Nadal is the top seed, but he comes with significantly less momentum than he had this time last year. He hasn't won a title since Roland Garros and lost the last two finals he made. He pulled out of Paris to prep for this event, so hopefully he'll be well-rested, but with some tough challengers to contend with, it won't be smooth sailing.

Mardy Fish, playing in the post-season for the first time in his career, will open against Rafa. He'll be the underdog in London, for sure, but has notched some big upsets over the last two years -- including a win over Nadal in Cincinnati in August -- that should remind opponents he should not be overlooked. But his health remains a question mark -- a hamstring pull forced him to retire after one game in his first match in Basel and he wasn't able to hold on to a lead against Juan Monaco in Paris. It would be a shame if injury forced him to squander this opportunity, though, so I'm hoping the last week and a half gave him ample time to recover.

Defending champion Roger Federer is also in this group, and though he's fallen a few spots from the top he's having the most successful streak of anyone else in the field. Fresh off titles in Basel and Paris, he has a chance to prevent his least prolific year since 2002. Not counting Nadal, he has dominated his group-mates and might be in the perfect position to make a play for his record sixth championship.

But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who Roger's already played six times this year, might have something to say about that. The Frenchman, in just his second World Tour Final -- his first since 2008, staged a stunning comeback from two sets down to Federer in the Wimbledon quarters and repeated the win in Montreal about a month later. He's had a good fall, winning titles in Vienna and Metz, and though he lost in the Paris finals, he's arguably playing some of his best ball these days. He might be able to cause some real damage in his half of the draw.

With just a few days left before the first balls are struck at the year-end championships, players don't have a lot of time left to prepare. But even the biggest underdog should know everyone out there is beatable. And the one who's able to put the first dent in the field's armor could walk away with something huge.

Celebrating the Other Guys

2011-11-15T21:24:00.000-05:00

It's about time players who spend their days and weeks slogging away on the Challenger Tour get their due.

With all the attention paid to the professional Tour -- the Slams, especially -- it's easy to miss the successes on the second tier circuit. But this year, for the first time, the ATP is celebrating just those athletes with the inaugural Challenger Tour Finals which kicks off Wednesday in Sao Paulo.

Portugal's Rui Machado leads the field in Brazil. Though he literally won just a handful of matches in ATP events -- his best result was a quarterfinal appearance in Costa do Sauipe -- he did earn himself four Challenger titles and climbed as high as #59 in the world in October. In the same round robin group is former top-thirty player Dudi Sela, struggling to regain the traction he found two years back, Cedrik-Marcel Stebe, on the verge of cracking into double-digit rankings after starting the year at #404, and Matthias Bachinger, a quarterfinalist in Bangkok and a titleist in Athens.

A second group of matches -- the "Grupo Verde" -- is headlined by wildcard Thomaz Bellucci. He's dropped a bit in the rankings since peaking at #21 in 2010, but with two ATP titles to his name, he's clearly the most experienced of the bunch. Slovakia's Martin Klizan only played six matches all year on the main Tour, but claimed his second Challenger title in Genova in September. Germany's Andreas Beck, once ranked #33 in the world, and American veteran Bobby Reynolds, winless in the ATP but a winner of two Challengers, round out the section.

Brazil's Bellucci may be the on-paper favorite to take the title, but if this year has taught us anything, it's that pretty much anything can happen. With the encouragement of their own year-end title, whoever wins the championship could ride the momentum and make even bigger strides on the main Tour -- and an even more successful 2012.

The Master, Back at Work

2011-11-13T18:38:00.000-05:00

Shame on you for giving up on Roger Federer. Shame!

The sixteen-time Major winner may have gone Slam-less for the first time since 2003, and he may have dropped a few spots in the rankings, but that certainly doesn't mean he's no longer relevant. And that's exactly what he spent the past week proving.

Fresh off his fifth title in Basel -- his first since Doha in January -- the Swiss Mister came to Paris running the best streak he'd had in quite some time. And with long-time rival Rafael Nadal withdrawing from the event and this year's hot-shot Novak Djokovic struggling with injury all fall, Federer had one of the best chances he's had all year to make a splash.

Federer made quick work of his opponents en route to his first ever Bercy final -- he'd never gotten past the semis here before. He overcame an early deficit against a resurgent Juan Monaco in the quarters and avenged a loss to Tomas Berdych in Cincy a day later. Somewhat surprisingly, it was only the second time he was playing for a title since the French Open.

Meanwhile in the other half of the draw, recent London qualifier Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was looking to improve on his stellar autumn, which already included trophies in Metz and Vienna. He sealed his spot at the O2 after making the quarters, and received a bit of a break when Djokovic's withdrawal gave him automatic entrée into the semis. He struggled a bit against big-serving John Isner on Saturday, dropping the first set -- but even though he was never able to break the American's serve, he ground out the win after two tiebreaks and nearly three hours.

The battle must have taken it's toll on the Frenchman during Sunday's match. Though he earned two break chances on Roger in the first game -- mostly thanks to errors by the former #1 -- Tsonga couldn't convert and quickly found himself in a 0-5 hole. Federer closed out the first set easily, but faced a tougher test in the second. Tsonga nearly took advantage of a break opportunity in eighth game, but a challenge by the third seed set the score straight and the pair went to a tiebreak. From the start, though, it was all Federer, and after less than ninety minutes of play, he had captured his second title in as many weeks.

The win puts momentum squarely on Federer's side as he prepares to defend his title in London. Now 12-0 since the U.S. Open, he's boasting the best record among the qualifiers, and could very well translate that into yet another year-end championship -- what would be his fifth. That's not bad for a guy who, not very long ago, seemed to have lost a bit of his step. Clearly Federer still has the talent to take pretty much any opponent by storm -- and we've seen the past two weeks he also has the hunger to do it.

And as long as he keeps playing like this, it doesn't look like anyone's safe.

Sneaking In

2011-11-09T12:38:00.001-05:00

It's a strange set of circumstances looming over the Paris draw this week. With three openings at the year-end finals still in play, athletes on the bubble are campaigning to secure their spot. But at the same time, question marks loom over some of the favorites -- so the door ironically could swing wide open for those last to enter the field.

Novak Djokovic has been locked down for London for months, but he's been showing chinks in his armor the last few months. Injury forced him to retire from the final in Cincinnati and his singles rubber at the Davis Cup semis. He was clearly not in top form last week when that lingering shoulder injury seemed to factor prominently in his loss to Kei Nishikori in Basel, only his second defeat in a fully-played match this year, and speculation ran rampant that he might not play in Paris.

Though he took the court earlier today -- and won -- he wouldn't have been the only one to rest up before making the trip to London. Andy Murray skipped Basel as he nursed a hamstring injury, and Rafael Nadal pulled out of the Bercy Masters to prep in a less strenuous environment. Only Roger Federer, reigning year-end champ, and David Ferrer have so far seemed to be in good shape.

So what does that mean for the players who will secure the remaining spots over the next few days? Tomas Berdych, who I'm frankly surprised is so closely in contention after failing to defend points at Miami or Wimbledon, needs just one more win. Unfortunately standing in his way will be fellow London hopeful Janko Tipsarevic who's played three finals since the U.S. Open -- he punches his ticket with a title in Paris, but a far more likely third round win over the Czech would still keep Berdych guessing.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga significantly improved his own chances this fall, claiming titles in Metz and Vienna. He's also a match away from returning to the Masters Cup for the first time since 2008. He might have to get past Nicolas Almagro to get there though -- the world #11 has three titles on the year, but has been relatively quiet off the clay. Like Tipsarevic, the Spaniard needs to win Paris to clinch the season extension -- something that looks less likely as he's just lost the first set to Andreas Seppi in his second round. But he could cause some damage to Tsonga's hopes if he pulls through.

Mardy Fish needs to make the quarters in order to qualify for his first ever year-end championship. It's been a long time coming, but I fear the hamstring injury that forced him to retire last week may hamper his performance in Paris. Gilles Simon and Gael Monfils round out the remaining hopefuls -- the Frenchmen have had something of a resurgence this season, but both need a little luck, even if either takes the Masters title.

All that said, any of the final entrants could take advantage of a weary and wounded favorite field. Of course Federer has been playing top-rate tennis this month and players like Djokovic and Nadal can never be counted out of contention. But with the long ATP season due to take its toll eventually, those making their last push this week could be able to find some holes in the usually impenetrable armors of the elite.

And perhaps one who just snuck in the door could sneak up on everyone and do some real damage in London.

End With a Bang

2011-11-06T19:37:00.000-05:00

The women's tennis season officially wrapped up today as the final balls were hit at the Commonwealth Bank Tournament of Champions. And while the field contesting the title boasted some of the most impressive records on Tour, the ultimate outcome was probably not what many expected.

The top seeds in Bali were mostly occupied with some of the most successful athletes. Marion Bartoli just missed gaining full entry to the year-end championships held last week in Istanbul, but got in one round robin win as a wildcard. Sabine Lisicki came back from an injury-filled 2010 to take two titles and put up career-best showings at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. And twenty-eight year old Roberta Vinci put together her most trophy-filled year, capturing a career-best three crowns herself. But only Lisicki made it out of the first round, and a low back injury forced her to retire late in her semifinal match.

Taking advantage of the German's bad luck -- and, incidentally, Bartoli's a round earlier -- was Anabel Medina Garrigues, the surprise winner in both Estoril and Palermo. They were the first events she'd won since 2009 and helped her climb back into the top thirty. She's been a little quiet in the second half of the year, but by hanging in just a little longer than her opponents this weekend, she made her first final since July.

The bottom half of the draw had a few more surprises, but at least all the matches were fully played out. College Park champion Nadia Petrova, once ranked #3 in the world, avenged previous losses to second-seeded wildcard Shuai Peng this year, and defending titleist Ana Ivanovic reversed her recent losses to Vinci to score the win in just over an hour. The semifinal match on Saturday was similarly straightforward as the Serb got the better of her long-time rival, further improving her slight head-to-head lead over the Russian.

It was the first final Ivanovic had reached this year, and though she had dropped a few spots from her high ranking of 2011, she was nevertheless hanging with the big girls again. She'd beating Jelena Jankovic in Indian Wells and took Kim Clijsters to a third set tiebreak in Miami -- just a few weeks back in Beijing she beat both Svetlana Kuznetsova and Vera Zvonareva to make the semis. And she brought that momentum with her to Sunday's championship match, dominating her service games and breaking Medina Garrigues four times during the match. With the win, her only title of the year, she may not make a big move up the rankings, but she will at least gain confidence to play even better when she kicks of 2012.

And with the way her competition is playing these days, that confidence can only be to her advantage.

Fed Cup Final: A Turning Point?

2011-11-04T10:18:00.001-04:00

This weekend plays host to what could be a very interesting Fed Cup championship -- both squads, with plenty of power and lots of talent, have a real shot at winning the trophy, and though the tide may have shifted ever so slightly, it's too early to count anyone out.

It would seem history favors one side -- Russia won four Fed Cup titles in the last decade, while the Czechs haven't hoisted the trophy since becoming an independent country. The Russians made it here with a one-sided drubbing of the defending champion Italians back in April, and the Czechs advanced by the skin of their teeth over Belgium, securing the win only with a gutsy doubles victory.

But the team is playing without some of its brightest stars -- still-hobbled Maria Sharapova was left off the roster, while world #7 Vera Zvonareva was forced to pull out due to a shoulder injury sustained at the Kremlin Cup. Strangely the next highest-ranked player on their list, #15 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, was relegated to the doubles rubber, leaving Maria Kirilenko -- incidentally a runner-up in doubles at the Australian Open this year -- and veteran Svetlana Kuznetsova to hold up the fort in the early rounds.

In the meantime, the easy-to-overlook Czechs have momentum on their side in a big way. Wimbledon and Istanbul champ Petra Kvitova has dominated the Tour recently, winning her last two tournaments and climbing to #2 in the world. And the doubles pairing of Lucie Hradecka (#15 in the discipline) and Kveta Peschke (#2) will be hard to beat -- if the match goes to a deciding rubber, the advantage should be with the first-time finalists.

But, as always, it won't be quite as easy as that.

Kvitova can have periods of spotty play -- she lost in three straight first rounds after her title in Paris and only won two matches during the summer hardcourt season. She's also lost her only two matches against Kirilenko, admittedly back in 2009, and never faced Kuznetsova. MaKiri, on the other hand, is having a nice fall -- she twice beat her U.S. Open vanquisher Sam Stosur and made at least the quarters of the three events she's played out. And Zvonareva's replacement, Elena Vesnina, has three doubles titles this year herself -- and a runner's-up trophy from Roland Garros. Of course, Lucie Safarova could become a secret weapon on the Czech side, while the roller coaster of Kuznetsova could do the opposite for the Russians.

It would mean a lot for the Czechs to take the title. The growing and developing squad would get a real boost if they can pull off the upset of the long-dominant Russia. But it clearly won't be an easy task -- the Russians will be hungry to return to the winners' podium and could bring the firepower to do it. One thing's certain though -- whoever comes out on top will have earned it.

The Boys Are Back

2011-11-01T19:57:00.000-04:00

Is it me, or has something been missing from the ATP Tour the last few weeks?

Sure Andy Murray has been tearing up the Asian hard courts, and Janko Tipsarevic has carved himself quite a nice little niche, making the finals or better more than a few times this fall. But without the presence of superpowers like world #1 Novak Djokovic and Grand Slam master Roger Federer, the draws have seemed fairly sparse since the U.S. Open.

That changes this week, though, as both the Swiss and the Serb -- along with a few ther once-familiar faces -- take the courts in Basel and Valencia. They've been absent for a variety of reasons, from injury and illness to fallen rankings and time spent on the Challengers' circuit, but they return to the scene this week in full force. Not all can be successful, of course -- John Isner, who's been out of commission during the Asian swing, already lost his first round in Spain to young Canadian Vasek Pospisil --but others could really use this week to get back in the swing of things.

Roger Federer hasn't played since the Davis Cup World Groups in September, and though he won both those round robins, he's seen his ranking drop to a level not seen since March of 2003. He came back to Basel the defending champion, one of the last few tournaments he won, but this time he's not the on-paper favorite. Still he powered through his first round against Potito Starace, earning the right to meet Jarkko Nieminen tomorrow. A few more wins under his belt and he could very well re-establish his position before moving on to Paris.

Novak Djokovic has been riding a slightly more successful year, but after recording just his third loss of the season -- he pulled out of his match with Juan Martin Del Potro after a nagging back injury put an end to his most recent run -- he's been on break. He too is back in action in Switzerland and had a opening round date with veteran Xavier Malisse earlier today. And though he had a longer day at work -- the Belgian won every one of his first serves in the second set -- Djokovic was ultimately able to secure the win. He'll get a day off while Tobias Kamke and Lukasz Kubot battle for the right to face him next, and the rest could serve him well if he's going to keep up his success.

Over in Valencia the stars shine a little less bright, but with six of the top fifteen players entered in the draw, the road to a title is no less difficult. So it's encouraging to see co-marathon man Nicolas Mahut seeing success again. He's only played a handful of pro Tour matches this year but made it through a couple tough qualifying rounds to make the main draw. On Monday he faced one-time top twenty-five player Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and, after surviving a tight first set and tiebreak, he eventually sailed through the second, notching only his second victory over a player ranked in the double-digits this year. He probably has a decent chance against Nikolay Davydenko in his next match, but it's encouraging to see him notch even one upset.

Another player ranked outside the top hundred might have a better chance of making a dent in Valencia, though. The twenty-four year old American only won a single match between last year's U.S. Open and February this year, and when an elbow injury kept him from defending many of the points he racked up last summer, he tumbled out of the sport's elite. He's bided his time on the Challengers' tour since September and played his first pro match earlier today against also recovering Ernests Gulbis. With ten aces, a ninety-plus win percentage on his first serve, and a solid return game, he might be back in the form he needs to climb up the rankings again.

It's been a while since we got a chance to watch any of these guys play at all, and some of them haven't played well in ages. But early indications this week bode well for hopes they're still in the mix, and if they play to their potential, it could be an exciting end to the season.

A Banner Year

2011-10-30T18:41:00.000-04:00

If at the start of 2011, someone had said then-#34 Petra Kvitova would be a Grand Slam and WTA champion by the end of the year, few would've believed it. But the twenty-one year old Czech has spent the last ten months honing her game, moving up the rankings, and earlier today capped off the best season of her still-young career.

She kicked off the year in style, defeating four higher-ranked opponents to capture the title in Brisbane and several weeks later dominated Kim Clijsters at the Paris Indoors final. Of course that was all small potatoes compared to her stunning victory at the All England Club, which ultimately announced her arrival in the elite.

Kvitova struggled a bit since July, winning just two matches during the summer hard-court season and losing in the first round at the U.S. Open. But with a run to the semis in Tokyo and a title in Linz, it looked like momentum was back on her side, and when she got to Istanbul for her first ever appearance at the year-end championships she was at the top of her game.

She got off to a good start in the round robins, taking out two-time Major finalist Vera Zvonareva in straight sets, avenging her loss at the Pan Pacific Open. She followed it up with a straightforward win over world #1 Caroline Wozniacki and completed her rout of the Red Group by taking out Aggie Radwanska on Friday. She lost her first set of the tournament to Sam Stosur in the semis, but rebounded from the 5-7 deficit to take out the U.S. Open winner after just over two hours of play.

Over in the White Group Victoria Azarenka was trying to cap off her own career-best year. The twenty-two year old had won a trio of titles in 2011, highlighted by reclaiming the trophy in Miami, and put up her deepest run at a Major with a semi showing at Wimbledon. But some consistent play throughout the year -- she's often faded out after a strong spring -- helped her climb to a high ranking of #3 in September, and got her on the radar of pundits looking for the Next Big Thing in women's tennis.

In Istanbul, her third consecutive appearance at the year-end championships, Vika was quick to get off on the right foot. Previously unable to get out of the round robins, the Belarusian came out swinging against Sam Stosur, notching the win in just over an hour. The next day she reversed her recent record against Na Li, who'd knocked her out at both the Australian and French Opens, to secure her spot in the semis. Though she lost her third match against Marion Bartoli -- a replacement after Maria Sharapova withdrew with injury -- Azarenka posted an easy win over Vera Zvonareva Saturday, setting up her third meeting with Kvitova this year. She'd lost on both previous occasions.

The match-up between the two young stars certainly lived up to its potential. Kvitova came out firing and built up an impressive 5-0 lead in the first set. But an increasingly consistent Azarenka somehow managed to draw even, thwarting the Czech on two attempts to serve out the set. Petra broke again in the twelfth game to regain the lead, but Vika didn't back down. They traded breaks early in the second, but ultimately a better service game and more aggressive return from Azarenka brought things to a tie again and forced a deciding set, even earning herself three break chances to start the third. But that's when Kvitova came alive -- after denying Vika on four opportunities that game she immediately broke again and never looked back. Finally after two and a half hours of play, it was Kvitova, in her Tour Championship debut, that came away with the title.

For her efforts, Petra Kvitova will end the year as #2 in the world and go into the 2012 season as a legitimate threat, really on any court -- considering the girl was ranked outside the top fifty just eighteen months ago, that's quite an accomplishment. She's proven that she can hit with the big girls and will likely beat them more often than she loses -- something other players in the top ten can't always say.

And if she can keep up her play, there's no telling what she could do next year.

Winding Down?

2011-10-27T10:45:00.000-04:00

We're getting to that part of the men's season where much of the London field has been decided and the couple remaining contenders are fighting to rack up a couple extra points here and there before the last few Masters events of the year. But even those players who have no possibility of making a trip to the O2 have reason to keep fighting -- some are looking to follow through on recent successes, while others need to get their games back on track after losing the momentum that was once so clearly on their side.

It hasn't been all successful -- one-time world #3 Nikolay Davydenko continues to struggle post injury -- though he was able to reach the semis last week in Moscow, he got bagelled in his second set in Vienna yesterday, ultimately losing the first round to qualifier Steve Darcis. And surprise Australian Open quarterfinalist Alexandr Dolgopolov may be at a career high ranking, but after his drubbing by Dudi Sela on Monday in St. Petersburg he's now lost three opening matches in his last four events.

Big-serving Kevin Anderson is trying to turn his year around. Though he's just a shade off a career-high ranking, he hasn't won more than two matches at any event since March. Many of his losses have come at the hands of top-twenty players, or better -- Novak Djokovic, Mardy Fish, Gael Monfils are among the South African's vanquishers this year -- but it's still been hard for him to get traction since taking his maiden title in Johannesburg. So far in Vienna, though he seems to have found his game again. Already notching twenty-two aces this week, he had a straight forward win over Andreas Haider-Maurer on Monday and followed up by downing always-tricky Marcos Baghdatis in straight sets. This is where he can get into trouble, though, as his next opponent, either Jurgen Melzer or Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, could present a challenge. But he'll have to power through if he's going to re-establish himself as a force next year.

More interesting, though, might be the re-emergence of veteran Tommy Haas. Once the #2 player in the world, he remained a force until hip surgery nearly two years ago cut his 2010 season way short. He started playing singles again at Roland Garros and won his first match of the year against Michael Berrer in Newport back in July. And though he made a surprising run to the third round at the U.S. Open, it wasn't until this week he managed to put together more than a few wins back-to-back. As a wildcard in the qualifiers, he took out Matthias Bachinger to make the main draw and immediately upset fifth seed Juan Ignacio Chela. Today he came back from a set down against fellow qualifier Aljaz Bedene to make the quarters, the first time he's gotten that far at a tournament in over two years.

Over in St. Petersburg Alex Bogomolov Jr. is having the year of his career. Though he first emerged on the scene at the start of the last decade, some personal troubles -- a divorce from fell tennis player Ashley Harkleroad and a suspension for doping in 2005 -- kept him from making a real impact on Tour. But already this year he's beaten Andy Murray in Miami and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Cincinnati. The seventh seed came to Russia, incidentally where he is a dual citizen, ranked #36 in the world, also just off his career high. After stomping down Igor Kunitsyn in his first match, he withstood a late surge by Philipp Kohlschreiber today to get the win earlier today. That gives him entry to his sixth quarterfinal of the year, proving his recent run was no flash in the pan.

Marin Cilic is trying to accomplish a similar feat, though his greatest successes are far less recent. A top-ten player last year, he hasn't won a title since February, 2010 and lost five opening round matches this year. But he's been trying to reverse that run recently and made the finals in Beijing earlier this month. He's fallen a bit in the rankings, but retained the fourth seed in St. Petersburg and today rebounded after losing his first set to Somdev Devvarman to get the win after two-plus hours of play. He also benefits from a lack of viable seeds in his section of the draw, so could make a very legitimate run for a title.

It's too late for any of these guys to hope their seasons will be extended this year, but it's still important for them to make a stand before they begin their 2012 campaigns. If they kick off next year like they're trying to end this one, there's no telling where the momentum will take them.

It's About Time

2011-10-23T18:18:00.001-04:00

It was quite an eventful week in Moscow as the ladies wrapped up their regular season events and the men put in last-ditch efforts to qualify for London. But for the players who made it to the end, their rewards may have longer-lasting impacts than just the one title.

It's been a banner year for Janko Tipsarevic -- fresh off a big win over Andy Roddick at the 2010 U.S. Open and a Davis Cup trophy, he was poised for big things. Though he failed in attempts to capture his first title in both Delray Beach and Eastbourne, he nevertheless climbed to a career-high ranking on the heels of a run to the semis in Cincinnati and quarters in New York. And in his fifth appearance in a championship match, he finally did one better than runner-up when he took the crown in Kuala Lumpur. He came to Moscow as the top seed and, though he stumbled slightly in the first set against Igor Kunitsyn, he quickly rebound and dominated the way to his fourth final of the year.

There he met his friend and compatriot Viktor Troicki, incidentally the winner here last year. The third-ranked Serb had been moving up the rankings himself this year, but with four first round losses in his last five tournaments, momentum was not on his side. He had a tough road in Russia, needing three tiebreak sets to get through Alex Bogomolov in the quarters, but ultimately returned to the finals to set up the first all-Serbian title match in ATP history.

But ultimately the defender, who had won their only previous meeting here three years ago, wasn't able to get the better of the on-paper favorite this time. Though Troicki was able to overcome a service deficit early and did out-ace his opponent in the first set, Tipsarevic finally got the go-ahead break in the ninth game and did serve it out. He stayed aggressive early in the second, pressuring Troicki in his first service game, and broke again a few games later. By then it was all over, and it was London-hopeful Tipsarevic hoisting the trophy this time.

Things weren't quite so smooth in the women's draw in Moscow. Top players Vera Zvonareva and red-hot Aggie Radwanska both fell early in the week. In fact Linz finalist Dominika Cibulkova was the only seed to make the semifinals -- after stunning Vera in the quarters, she smashed through doubles specialist Elena Vesnina on Saturday to make her second championship match in as many weeks.

In the other half of the bracket Kaia Kanepi, who's fallen substantially from the career high #16 ranking she held earlier in the year, was putting on an impressive display herself. Unseeded here, she was nevertheless able to upset French Open runner-up Francesca Schiavone and two-time Major winner Svetlana Kuznetsova in back-to-back matches. Having won a title last year in Palermo, she may not have been the favorite, but she was surely the more comfortable on this stage.

And it seemed Kanepi's experience would win out early in the match. She broke the diminutive Slovak in the fourth game of the match before taking the first set and stayed strong after losing break point in the second to force a tiebreak. But Cibulkova won seven straight points to push the match to a decider and after failing to consolidate a break twice in the third set, she finally held serve when it counted most and was able to capture that elusive first title. And after the year she's had -- wins over Zvonareva, world #1 Caroline Wozniacki and Wimbledon finalist Maria Sharapova -- it was certainly quite well-deserved.

As the season winds down for all these athletes, it's nice to see them bringing their best play even at the end. And especially for two newly minted champions who've waiting a long time to bring home those maiden trophies, it's the best way to cap off the year. Now that they have the confidence that comes with success, there's really no telling what they can do in 2012.

The Turnarounds

2011-10-20T10:19:00.000-04:00

There's nothing worse than seeing a promising talent burn out after having a burst of success.

It happens a lot, of course -- former #1 Dinara Safina's injuries have taken her out of the game indefinitely and Sam Querrey, once considered the future of American tennis, has been having only moderate success on the Challengers' Tour since elbow surgery took him out of the game for a while. But there is sometimes light at the end of the tunnel, and a couple players are trying to prove their strong starts to the year were no fluke.

Many of the top women in the sport made their way over to Luxembourg this week, but some of the best results have come from the non-seeded players. Veteran Alberta Brianti won her first ever title days after her thirty-first birthday in April, and though she's had a couple nice victories after that -- a suddenly resurgent Flavia Pennetta in Carlsbad, sky-rocketing Sabine Lisicki in Linz -- she hasn't been able to gain the same traction she had in the spring. But after her first round victory over Anna Tatishvili this week, she might be swinging strong again. She'll have to get past top seed and world #3 Victoria Azarenka to go any further here, but her strong start could give her the confidence she needs.

Then there's Anastasija Sevastova, whose surprise run to the fourth round of the Australian Open helped her climb to a career high ranking of #36 in the world in January. She's only won eight matches since, falling in twelve first rounds. Now ranked out of the top hundred, the Latvian seems to be getting her game back in order in Luxembourg. She dealt a one-sided defeat to Pennetta in her opener and earlier today was similarly impressive against rising star Simona Halep, winning more than seventy percent of her first serves and breaking the Romanian six times. She'll have to raise her game even more against her next opponent, Stuttgart champion Julia Goerges, but the German has also been off her game a bit recently and hasn't won more than two matches at an event since April. If Sevastova takes charge, she could make a big impact here.

Over in Stockholm, the field is led by world #10 Gael Monfils, but I've got my eye on some players a little further down the rankings. Ivan Dodig erupted onto the scene to start the year, winning a title in Zagreb and making the finals in 's-Hertogenbosch. He was also the only player to take a set off Novak Djokovic during his Australian Open run. He's gone 4-10 since mid-June, though, and though he remains the seventh seed in Sweden he's fallen far out of the spotlight. But the Croat has a chance to change that this week -- after a tough win over Adrian Mannarino he will meet former world #3 David Nalbandian for a spot in the quarters later today. Dodig lost their previous meeting a few weeks back, but he is the on-paper favorite here, and will want to reverse that result.

More impressive has been the return of my dear James Blake in Stockholm. After falling way out of the top hundred, he's been plodding his way through the Challengers' Tour all year, winning titles in Winnetka and Sarasota. He's still been trophy-less on the pro circuit for over four years, but back at #69, he's playing solid ball again. Yesterday Blake pulled off his biggest win in years as he upset second seed 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro in straight sets. It's probably too soon to call the bracket wide open for the American -- he'll face the winner of Dodig/Nalbandian next -- but the upcoming challenges are much less intimidating than the one he's already overcome.

With only a few weeks left in the season, there's never been a better time for these players to turn their years -- or careers -- around. There's no telling yet how long their streaks will last this week, but their wins so far sure show they've still got what it takes to make a dent in their draws.

And if they play up to their potential, it could change things dramatically in the months to come.

The Right Way to Finish

2011-10-16T20:21:00.000-04:00

Most of the headlines of 2011 have understandably focused on the impressive streak which began Novak Djokovic's year. His 64-3 record, ten titles and three Major trophies is one of the best runs in tennis history. And with the year-end #1 ranking all tied up now, he's broken ground few have ever tread before. But as the Serb takes a couple weeks off to recover from what's been a very intense schedule, it seems it's time for someone else to take over.

Andy Murray came to Shanghai as the defending champion and fresh off titles in Bangkok and Tokyo. Since mid-August, he'd put together twenty-one wins and just a single loss -- to Rafael Nadal at the U.S. Open, certainly nothing to be embarrassed by. As the second seed this week, he was one of the few favorites to survive the early rounds -- Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Mardy Fish and even Nadal all suffered early losses, allowing tricky players like Feliciano Lopez and Kei Nishikori into the semis. And though Murray had the benefit of a first round bye and a second round walkover, he took out his next three opponents in fairly short order, dropping just three games in less than an hour of play with Nishikori to make his sixth final of the year.

The only other seed to make it to the final four was David Ferrer, himself a two-time titleist this year and a runner-up in Monte Carlo, among others. The world #5 had a slightly more difficult path, though, toughing out a win over promising youngster Milos Raonic, rebounding from a set down against former #1 Juan Carlos Ferrero and fighting off a stubborn Andy Roddick in the quarters. He even needed more than two hours to dismiss his countryman Lopez, who'd already taken care of Janko Tipsarevic, Tomas Berdych and Rafa's vanquisher Florian Mayer.

After such a week, it shouldn't be too shocking that Murray had the upper hand in the final. Though Ferrer had won a respectable three of their seven previous matches, each victory came on clay and he had only taken one set off the Scot on any other surface. Murray kicked off the match by breaking the Spaniard's serve, and though the score was immediately evened up he did manage to get the lead back. The second set played out in similar fashion, and when all was said and done, Murray was able to secure the win, his fifth of 2011 and his eighth Masters crown.

The win does more than add to Murray's trophy chest. As of Monday's rankings, he'll be back in the top three for the first time since March of last year and, maybe more interestingly, ahead of Roger Federer, who'll be at his lowest position in over eight years. There are still a few weeks of play left in the season, though, and this is certainly not the time for Murray to start coasting.

If he's able to keep up his momentum and end the year like Djokovic started it, he might finally be able to make that breakthrough everyone's been waiting for.

New Stars Emerge

2011-10-13T08:29:00.000-04:00

The last couple weeks on the ladies Tour have been dominated by a very familiar group of players -- those we've become used to seeing in the later rounds of the Majors and the ones who've been staples in and around the top-ten for most of the year.

But at the slightly smaller events this week we're starting to see some new faces last into the latter matches. It's not that the tournaments are without star power -- winners of the last two Grand Slams are in both draws -- but it's a couple others who have potential to really make an impact.

At the HP Open in Osaka, some of the year's break-out stars are continuing their momentum. U.S. Open semifinalist Angelique Kerber, just a shade off her career-high ranking, has only dropped seven games in her first two rounds. And Petra Cetkovska, who began the year ranked #142 in the world, has followed up well on her fourth-round run at Wimbledon -- she's now made her third Tour quarterfinal since July.

But the true player to watch in Japan might be veteran South African Chanelle Scheepers. A true journeywoman, the twenty-seven year old has never finished a year ranked inside the top one hundred. But since nearly defeating Francesca Schiavone at the U.S. Open and then earning her first career title in Guangzhou immediately after, she's vaulted into everyone's attention. She had a tough second round match against doubles champion Yaroslava Shvedova and faces a more-than-intimidating Sam Stosur next, but the girl knows how to persevere and I wouldn't put an upset past her.

The ladies in Linz have been similarly impressive. Fes champion Alberta Brianti hadn't made much of an impact in the intervening months, but a dominating win over uber-tough Sabine Lisicki in the first round put the Italian back on the map. And Ksenia Pervak, who won her maiden crown in Tashkent back in September, has a very good chance to make a dent in the draw when she takes out Daniela Hantuchova later today.

But here I've got my eye on qualifier Sorana Cirstea. Once ranked #23 in the world, the young Romanian hasn't followed up on her French Open success from years ago -- this year alone she's lost in or before the second round of seventeen events. But two ITF titles, including one last month in Saint Malo, may have helped her turn things around -- she began her run in Austria with a fairly easy win over Wimbledon quarterfinalist Tamira Paszek and then staged an impressive come-from-behind win over world #15 Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova -- her first top-twenty win in over a year. She'll next face either Brianti or Lucie Safarova, neither an opponent to be overlooked, but certainly less of a challenge than what she's already faced.

Sure it's getting late in the year and there's not a lot of time left to make a big move in the rankings. But as their seasons wind down it sure looks like they're all looking to get momentum moving in their direction. And as they prep for 2012, now might be the perfect time to come out swinging.

Return to Glory

2011-10-09T21:05:00.000-04:00

It's not that this week's winners have been completely out of the spotlight recently, but with other stories hogging the headlines -- Novak Djokovic's miraculous run this year, the return of Serena Williams, three first-time Grand Slam ladies' champions this year -- it's no wonder that other players have been relegated to the back pages. But in Asia this weekend, some players who've been sitting on the sidelines made some loud arguments that they should not yet be forgotten.

Andy Murray is clearly not down and out. The world #4 has only lost one match in the last two months, racking up titles in Cincinnati and Bangkok. This week he came to Tokyo as the second seed, but wasn't rewarded with a particularly easy draw -- he began with a two-and-a-half hour battle against Marcos Baghdatis, a man who'd beaten him earlier this year in Rotterdam, and then faced Alex Bogomolov, David Nalbandian and David Ferrer in succession. Against Rafael Nadal in the final, a man who'd handily beaten him in their last five meetings, I was nervous, but fairly certain his luck had run out.

But Murray was undeterred in Sunday's final. After getting down an early break to the Spaniard and losing the first set, he seemed to regain focus. He broke his opponent in the fourth game of the second and never looked back, ultimately blanking the former #1 in the decider and dropping just four points in the set. It was Murray's fourth title of the year and the twentieth of his career. And with just a handful of events left before the year-end championships, there's never been a better time for him to show his stuff.

The same could be said for Tomas Berdych who, though a shade off his career-high ranking, had gone over two years without a title to his name. He had made a couple good runs at tournaments this year, but failed to defend points both at Roland Garros and Wimbledon. He'd lost to players like Thomaz Bellucci, Philipp Petzschner and Stephane Robert and had only notched two top-ten wins on the year, half the number he scored last year.

But this week in Beijing he seemed to be back in form. After a tough first round against a feisty Jurgen Melzer, he only dropped three games on the way to the semis. He endured a long match Saturday, however, against top-seeded Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, himself fresh off a title in Metz, but eventually made it through, delivering a breadstick in the third set. He was similarly impressive in Sunday's final against former #9 Marin Cilic, a man who, though impressive, hadn't faced a seeded player on his way to the championship match. After losing the first set, Berdych eventually drew even and dominated the decider, closing out the match and earning his sixth career trophy. It may have come at the most opportune time, pulling him back into contention for the World Tour Finals. If he keeps his momentum up, he could be making a return to London.

The stakes were just as high for the ladies in Beijing, and Tokyo champion Aggie Radwanska was out to prove she deserves to be considered among the elite. A shade out of the top ten, she still held hopes of qualifying for the BNP Paribas Championships, but needed to put up a strong showing in China to keep those prospects alive. And after her impressive upset-filled run in Japan, she must have been happy to have her opponents clear the road for her this week. Sofia Arvidsson took out Wimbledon titleist Petra Kvitova, while Ana Ivanovic defeated world #4 Vera Zvonareva, and Flavia Pennetta ousted top seed Caroline Wozniacki. Not that any of these ladies should be overlooked, but certainly they were less intimidating than other options.

In any case, when Radwanska met Andrea Petkovic in the final, she hadn't lost a set in over a week. She ran off to a good start against the German, but kept losing every lead she built -- the two traded breaks for much of the first set before Aggie was ultimately able to consolidate. But the tide turned swiftly in the second and the ninth seed took less than half an hour to blank her opponent and force a decider. Here again it was a game of ups and downs for the Pole, but she was finally able to serve out the match, improving her record against Petkovic to a perfect 5-0 and garnering enough points to move her securely back into the top ten. She's now in position to qualify for the Championships for the third time in her career -- if she's able to hold on.

With so many of the biggest stars this year taking some time off to recoup -- or regroup -- it's the perfect chance for others to seize the reins, and all these athletes are making a valiant stab at doing just that.

As the 2011 season winds down they really could have an impact on how things end -- and it's certainly not to late to turn the tables in their favor.

Looking for Follow-Through

2011-10-05T21:52:00.000-04:00

It's not news that the schedule of a professional tennis player can be taxing. With nearly every week on the calendar featuring an event somewhere on the globe, athletes often head straight from one tournament to another, and those lucky enough to make the final rounds one week could easily find themselves right back in action days, even hours, later. So we shouldn't be too surprised to see signs of fatigue, and hopefully those who do pull through will be able to keep it up

It's not all good news, of course. Pablo Andujar, since making the final in Bucharest, has lost two straight first rounds, most recently to world #137 Matthew Ebden. And Marcos Baghdatis, who pulled off one upset after another last week in Kuala Lumpur, apparently didn't have one more in him, falling to Andy Murray in Tokyo earlier today, while Janko Tipsarevic, high off his first career title, lost a battle with Dmitry Tursunov right off the bat. Then there's Pan Pacific runner-up Vera Zvonareva -- she struggled against Klara Zakopalova in her Beijing opener and was subsequently drubbed by a resurgent Ana Ivanovic in the third round.

On the other hand, we shouldn't be surprised to see players like Bangkok titleist Murray and Japan Open champ Aggie Radwanska do well, at least in the early stages of a tournament. It's the more unlikely heroes we should be watching.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has spent most of the last three years in and around the top fifteen, but he hadn't won a title since 2009 until Metz a few weeks back. He's the top seed at the China Open and survived a potentially big challenge from up-and-comer Grigor Dimitrov in his first round. He'll meet wildcard Ze Zhang next, but has a tough quarter of the draw with former #1 Juan Carlos Ferrero, 2010 Wimbledon finalist Tomas Berdych and one-time top-ten player Fernando Verdasco all playing some good ball these days. If he wants to be a real contender at the World Tour Finals, he'll have to keep his level up.

Kaia Kanepi hasn't been quite as consistent, but nevertheless has a chance to climb back into the sport's elite. Having dropped several ranking points the last few months after a foot injury kept her out of contention, she finally showed signs of the strength she had at the All England Club last year. She scored wins over U.S. Open standout Flavia Pennetta and world #1 Caroline Wozniacki in Tokyo last week, and benefitted in Beijing from the retirement of Sabine Lisicki. Tomorrow, she'll have a rematch with the Dane on Thursday, clearly no easy repeat. But if she's able to clear her path again, she'll certainly be well on her way to turning her year in a new direction.

There's certainly downside to playing such a physically demanding sport day in and day out, and hopefully none of these guys will pay a price for jumping right back into the game. If they are able to manage their schedules it could mean a very successful fall run -- they just have to be careful they don't suffer the fate of so many others.

The Major Leagues

2011-10-01T19:29:00.000-04:00

At the first premier tournament of the ladies' Asian Swing this year, there was no shortage of stars in the draw -- seven of the top ten made their way to the Pan Pacific Open in Tokyo, but plenty who'd just missed nabbing a seed were in full display as well. And that certainly made for some interesting results early on in the week, and allowed those who advanced to show they truly belong among the elite.

World #1 Caroline Wozniacki survived a tough first round against Jarmila Gajdasova, but was promptly dismissed a round later by former top-twenty player Kaia Kanepi. Maria Sharapova, at her highest ranking at a tournament in more than three year, was looking good, but suffered an unfortunate ankle roll in her quarterfinal rematch against Petra Kvitova which puts the rest of her year in jeopardy. But despite early losses by the favorites, the women who made the final weekend in Tokyo were forced to put up some of their best fight all week long.

Two-time Major finalist Vera Zvonareva hasn't had as much success this year versus last, but she did make eight semifinals, including deep runs in Australia and New York. She held onto the fourth seed here, but her road was far from easy -- she was forced to avenge a third round Wimbledon loss to Tsvetana Pironkova right off the bat and followed it up with a crushing defeat of doubles stand-out Iveta Benesova. She was down 1-5 in the semis against Kvitova, but somehow managed to win the match in straight sets, knocking off eleven of the last twelve games in her favor.

In the other half of the draw Agnieszka Radwanska, one of my perennial favorites, was pulling out the big guns against some top-tier talent herself. After dismantling U.S. Open surprise semifinalist Angelique Kerber -- incidentally, her own vanquisher in New York -- she took on former #1 Jelena Jankovic, blanking her in the third set. Against hard-hitting Victoria Azarenka in the final four, Aggie stayed calm after losing a 4-2 lead in the second set and ran off to an early lead in the third. Though it took a few tries to get it done, she eventually secured the win after over two and a half hours of play.

So Saturday's final ended up being a rematch of the Carlsbad championship, one which the Pole won relatively easily after also having endured a couple three-setters earlier in the week. And this time too Radwanska was able to seize the reins early -- after dropping her first service game, she rattled off four in a row and took the early set lead. She took an early lead in the second as well, and never looked back. In short order she'd scored the win -- her third straight over the Russian -- and claimed the biggest title of her still-young career.

For years I've been waiting for Radwanska to win herself a Big Girl's trophy, and it's so satisfying to see her do it. It may not be a Grand Slam, but she had to display the same standard of skill to get it. After notching her seventh top-ten win this year, she's certainly shown she can hang in with the top brass.

Now she just has to do it on the big stage.

Avoiding the Meltdown

2011-09-29T19:10:00.000-04:00

The sports pages in the U.S. today are all a-twitter over the stunning results of the last few hours -- minutes, even -- of the 2011 baseball season. A couple amazing rallies and a few unprecedented burnouts turned the year on its head, and what had been such a promising start for some ended with more than a few heads hanging in defeat.

Tennis players are more than capable of staging their own flame-outs. Sam Querrey raced into the elite, peaking at #17 in the world this past January, but went through a six-month period in which he won only one match -- dogged by injury most of this year, he's now ranked out of the top hundred. And Aravane Rezai, who climbed into the top fifteen less than a year ago, hadn't won more than two matches at a tournament all year until making the Dallas finals in August -- she's now just out of double-digit territory. But a couple players are trying to avoid similar fates this week in Asia -- after all, the last thing they want is to ~~collapse~~ fizzle out like the sad boys in Boston and Atlanta.

Andy Murray is probably the least likely to suffer a monstrous breakdown -- at #4 in the world, I have to begrudgingly admit he's probably the most talented player without a Major title. But he has periods of weakness -- he didn't win a match for more than two months after the Australian Open -- and he routinely allows opponents to walk all over him on the biggest stages. As the stronger hardcourt player, he probably should have won his U.S. Open semifinal against Rafael Nadal, but instead he was barely able to put a chink in the armor.

The Scot begins his Asia tour as the top seed in Bangkok, and really should seize the opportunity to make a statement -- especially with both Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer pulling out of the China Open. Earlier today he thumped veteran Michael Berrer in straight sets, setting up a meeting with up-and-comer Grigor Dimitrov. The young Bulgarian has certainly shown he's got talent, and if he's able to get under Murray's skin it could get tough for the favorite. Still, as long as Andy keeps his cool -- something he is want to lose now and again -- it could bode well for his tournament.

A problem may arise, though, if he has another run-in with U.S. Open standout Donald Young. The surprise vanquisher of both Stanislas Wawrinka and Juan Ignacio Chela in New York has already notched wins over Murray and Jurgen Melzer this year and climbed to within a stone's throw of the top fifty. It may have taken a little longer than most pundits expected, but he certainly looks ready now to carry the mantle of next-gen American tennis stars.

Of course, he shouldn't rest on his laurels. Another one prone to letting emotions get the better of his game -- and his off-court behavior -- he still has a lot of work to do in Bangkok. Though he was impressive in his dismissal of fourth-seeded Guillermo Garcia-Lopez on Thursday, he still potentially faces a challenge from world #9 Gael Monfils if he's going to make his first Tour final. It's not out of his reach, but something he'll need to keep his focus in order to achieve.

Unlike these guys, Marcos Baghdatis isn't one susceptible to throwing tantrums -- the friendly Cypriot is one of the calmest guys on Tour -- but his game is certainly one with ups and downs. Once ranked in the top ten, he failed to defend most of his points from last summer and has since fallen out of the top fifty. This year he's beaten Juan Martin Del Potro and Andy Murray, but also lost eleven opening rounds.

He took a wildcard entry into Kuala Lumpur, though, and opened with a solid victory over quick-rising Alex Bogomolov, Jr. He followed it up with a win over Somdev Devvarman, a man with whom he's split his last two meetings. He'll face doubles start Jurgen Melzer next, but the Austrian has been a little spotty himself recently and hasn't made a third round since July. If Baghdatis is at his best, I wouldn't be surprised to see an upset here too.

Serbian star Janko Tipsarevic is similarly likely to see his game break down. Last year after stunning Andy Roddick in the second round of the U.S. Open he promptly dropped in four sets to Gael Monfils. And back in February he was in total control versus Del Potro in the Delray Beach final before he broke down and ceded victory to the Argentine. But though he squandered his chance in another final in Eastbourne, he finally seemed to gain ground late in the summer -- he made the semifinals in Montreal and broke into the top fifteen after reaching the quarters in New York.

That record was enough to get him a third seed in Kuala Lumpur, where today he made the final eight with a win over Flavio Cipolla. The road only gets harder from her, as he next faces one-time world #3 Nikolay Davydenko, who's in the process of getting himself back together after his own injury sabbatical. The Russian has won their previous two meetings, but the last one was more than three years ago. If Tipsarevic is able to play as consistently has he had the last few months, he should make good on his favored position.

It's important for all these guys to keep momentum on their side. We've still got a few weeks to go before the end of their season, but this is certainly not the time to start slacking off. After all, none of us want to see another set of slumps that rival what's already happened in September -- especially the players themselves.

Before Moving On...

2011-09-26T20:04:00.000-04:00

This week the men begin their tour of Asia in the last leg of the 2011 season. But before traveling to the other side of the globe, a couple spent this past weekend getting in their last blows in Europe, and those that prospered most are on their way to ending their year on the highest note.

On the red clay of Bucharest -- that's right, we're still not done with the dirt -- some players were right at home. Defending champion and top-seed Juan Ignacio Chela made his way to the semis without dropping a set, but he was eventually bested by Casablanca winner Pablo Andujar. On the bottom half of the draw, Munich finalist Florian Mayer, who survived a close call to Carlos Berlocq in his opener, eventually reached his fifth career championship match, playing in top form.

Mayer's experience eventually got the better of the Spaniard as he survived a trade-of-breaks in the first set and capitalized on a double fault by his opponent to draw even. He won eight games in a row and ran off to a 5-0 lead in the second, virtually sealing the match. After just over an hour the twenty-seven year old German was hoisting his first ever trophy, proving it's never too late to make a stand in this sport.

A little further west in Metz, the top seeds were again putting on a show. Fresh off a Davis Cup drubbing, hometown boy Jo-Wilfried Tsonga rebounded quickly and ran to the final -- his third of the year -- with wins over (lower case) marathon man Nicolas Mahut and rising star Alexandr Dolgopolov. And though world #15 Richard Gasquet was upended in his second match, veteran Ivan Ljubicic made good on the opening to advance to his second final of the year, outperforming his fourth seeding.

But things again proceeded as the numbers suggested. Tsonga got off to a quick start, taking the opening set in under forty minutes, but squandered a break lead in the second as the Croat forced a tiebreak and a deciding set. The Frenchman regained control, though, forging ahead early in the third and finally closing out the match. It was his first title since 2009, but more importantly it bumped him up the World Tour Finals rankings, where he now stands at #7. If he holds on, it would be his first appearance at the year-end championships since 2008, and the way he's playing recently, could be his best chance yet to make a big statement.

While most other players in the sport were traveling to Asia, it seems the decision to stay in the Western Hemisphere has behooved both of this weekend's champions. And as the season winds down there could be no better time to take advantage of every opportunity. Because once they make it over to the other continent, everyone should be put on notice.

The Asian Swings

2011-09-22T20:07:00.000-04:00

The courts at the U.S. Open aren't event cold yet and already the ladies have made their way to the other side of the globe for the first leg of the fall season. And some players are already wielding their racquets in an attempt to end their years on a high note.

There haven't been too many huge upsets at the Guangzhou International Women's Open, where three of the four remaining athletes are seeded at the event. Though defending champion Jarmila Gajdasova was ousted earlier today, top seed Maria Kirilenko -- a real fighter, as she proved in New York -- has been relentless in her progress. The world #28 hasn't won a title since 2008, but has so far not dropped a set in China, and with a semifinal meeting against Chanelle Scheepers, who proved herself a journeywoman against Francesca Schiavone in her U.S. Open third round, she has a good chance to at least get back to a final -- the South African has played deciders in all three of her matches so far, and eventually the effort will catch up with her.

But the real story in Guangzhou has been homegrown Jie Zheng, once ranked fifteenth in the world. A semifinalist in Melbourne last year, she notched wins over Maria Sharapova and now-retired Elena Dementieva in 2010, but a wrist injury has largely kept her out of contention for the last twelve months. Now hanging around the low eighties, she's way out of seeding territory, but you know she's capable of doing damage well beyond her rank. So far, she's taken out Alberta Brianti and Petra Martic. And if she truly is back in form, I wouldn't be surprised to see her handle Magdalena Rybarikova in the semis and make a real push for this title.

The stakes were slightly higher in Seoul, where four of the top twenty-five women in the world entered the draw, but the upsets were also more striking. Last year's French Open champion Schiavone dropped her opener to Vera Dushevina and talented, if not slightly spotty, Marion Bartoli fell one round later, giving American doubles specialist Vania King her first ever top-ten victory. That opens the door for remaining seeds like Dominika Cibulkova who, at twenty-two -- in rank and in age -- still hasn't claimed that maiden title. She's shown signs of brilliance, of course, beating world #1 Caroline Wozniacki twice this year and scoring victories over Sharapova and Vera Zvonareva to boot, but she has yet to really shine. If she can make it past the quarters, though, this could be her turn.

Unfortunately for Cibu, she's in the same half of the draw as a girl who's having her own breakthrough this year. Kazakhstan's Galina Voskoboeva has been pro for nearly a decade, but hadn't spent a lot of time in the top hundred -- consistent performances on the ITF Tour and upsets of several top-thirty players, though, has pushed her to a new level. She isn't seeded in Seoul, but pulled off wins over Ekaterina Makarova and veteran Iveta Benesova already on her way to the quarters. She next faces Dushevina, not an easy task, as she's lost four of their five previous meetings, but certainly less intimidating than the Slam titleist she should have met.

There aren't many more weeks left in the 2011 season, and as the ladies wrap up there is a chance for some to prove they belong with the big girls and others to make a name for themselves. There's no telling yet who'll ultimately end up on top, but those who swing the hardest now may be the ones who hold the advantage.

New on the Scene

2011-09-18T20:29:00.000-04:00

The ladies in the winners' circles this weekend are far from household names. But with the four who contested the trophies all going after their maiden crowns, it might not be long before they find themselves more in the spotlight.

Twenty-year-old Ksenia Pervak came to Uzbekistan with on of her more successful summers. She'd made the fourth round at Wimbledon with wins over Shahar Peer and Andrea Petkovic and run to the finals at Baku. A shade off her highest-ever ranking, the fifty-second ranked player was still the top seed in Tashkent and worked her way through the draw without dropping a set. There she met little-known Czech Eva Birnerova, a pro for almost ten years who's spent most of her career making a mark on the ITF tour. She had a tougher road to the championship match, having three set victories two rounds in a row and advancing when Alla Kudryavtseva retired up a set in their semi. Easily the less experienced player in Saturday's match, Birnerova didn't put up much of a fight, allowing Pervak to win about two-thirds of her return points, breaking serve seven times. It was only the Russian's second final of her career, but with the way she's been playing this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see her around much more in the coming months.

In Quebec City the stakes might have been a little higher, as the top four seeds all held rankings at least better than fifty. But world #23 Daniela Hantuchova was stopped in the third round by New Zealand's Marina Erakovic on the way to her first ever Tour final -- she hadn't made a semi since 2008. On the bottom half of the draw, Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, fourteen times a doubles champion, benefitted from the early departure of Lucie Safarova as she made her first final since Prague last year. Though Erakovic got off to a good start, the tables turned quickly and the Czech #7 -- ranked globally at #75 -- only dropped one game in the last thirteen. Playing some of her most aggressive tennis now, at twenty-five years of age, she should see her profile in the sport much enhanced.

All these ladies have the potential to do some damage among the ranks of the top stars, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them take the confidence they gained this weekend into future matches. It could take a while for them to make the biggest impact, but they've certainly shown how capable they are of doing it now.

Right Back At It

2011-09-16T18:47:00.000-04:00

It hasn't even been a week since the last ball of the U.S. Open was struck, but that hasn't prevented some of the sport's biggest stars from representing their countries in the Davis Cup semifinals and World Group play-offs. And while newly-minted New York champion Novak Djokovic bowed out of his first rubber, plenty others who were pushed to the limit last week were out and swinging in the first day of the weekend's battles.

Runner-up Rafael Nadal might have been upset that he was unable to defend his title from last year, but he showed no signs of that on Friday when he took on France's Richard Gasquet on the clay of Spain. A tricky player, Gasquet has handed losses to the likes of Jurgen Melzer and Andy Roddick already this year, and cannot be overlooked. But Nadal made quick work of his opponent, winning all but two points on second serve and only allowing the Frenchman twelve on return. It took just over two hours to give Spain the early lead in the tie -- the desire to prove something runs strong in this one, it seems, as it's at least the second time he's taken out recent disappointment on a Davis Cup challenge.

Teammate David Ferrer suffered a similar upset in New York when the fifth seed fell to recently cut-down Andy Roddick in the round of sixteen. But against world #11 Gilles Simon, who himself suffered an early defeat to sub-twenty American John Isner at Flushing Meadows, Ferrer was indomitable -- he committed far fewer errors and broke his opponent an astonishing eight times during the match. The two-tie deficit will be pretty hard for last year's second place finishers to overcome now.

Over in Belgrade, the defending champions were down their biggest star, and that certainly put them at a disadvantage to the power-players on Argentina's team. Veteran David Nalbandian, who received a bit of a reprieve by facing Viktor Troicki instead of white-hot Novak Djokovic, nevertheless was relentless against the much-higher ranked Serb. After splitting the first two sets, he raised his game in the last two, withstanding fifteen total aces and staying aggressive himself. It was his first top-twenty win since January and reminded us that the nearly-thirty year old isn't going anywhere just yet.

Several hours later, 2009 U.S. Open champ Juan Martin Del Potro, who had his return in New York staunched earlier than I would have hoped, continued his comeback. In a rematch of the Delray Beach final, this time he was in control from the start against Janko Tipsarevic. His straight set win gave Argentina a two-tie lead over last year's victors, which could be hard to overcome without Djokovic in the mix.

The action wasn't all among those contesting the World Group semis, however. Down in the play-off level of Davis Cup, U.S. Open semifinalist Roger Federer was fighting for the chance to elevate Switzerland in next year's games. After compatriot Stanislas Wawrinka put them in a hole by losing to Australian upstart Bernard Tomic, the team's main man took the court versus fellow journeyman Lleyton Hewitt, a man who won their most recent meeting in Halle last year. But after losing the first set, the Grand Slam master eventually got the better of Hewitt, bringing the Swiss even with their opponents. It's got to boost the confidence of the man who blew two chances to make the U.S. Open finals.

It's true that there is no rest for the weary, and with even players who were around through championship weekend still showing up for their homelands, you know how important the Davis Cup is to them. And for whoever wins, they'll have the pleasure of knowing they had to beat the best to do it.

How Times Have Changed

2011-09-13T13:13:00.002-04:00

By now we all know that last night, after four-plus hours of top-notch rallies, impossible gets, stunning winners and all-out fighting in Arthur Ashe Stadium we have crowned a brand new U.S. Open champion.

World #1 Novak Djokovic, already the winner of two Grand Slams this year, came out swinging after a grueling five-set semifinal victory over Roger Federer and was relentless against defending champion Rafael Nadal Monday. He built up a somewhat surprising two-set lead, and though he squandered an early advantage in the third, he eventually closed out the title, 6-1 in four sets.

The match itself was fantastic, with both men showing the true resolve of champions, the willingness and ability to get to every shot, and the determination not to give up. But more importantly it displayed the new state of tennis -- one that tried and true veterans cannot keep up with and one that young upstarts will find hard to crack.

Rafael Nadal's three titles this year are a far cry from the seven he won in 2010. But has played in nine finals, eight of which were either Majors or Masters tournaments. He's a pit bull, and though he's been plagued by injuries on an off, he's only lost before the quarterfinals of an event once this year -- just three times since the 2008 French Open. He's racked up a higher-than-usual number of losses this year, most of them to Djokovic, but even when he should be challenged, he somehow comes up with the better play and is able to triumph. It's the reason he has at least one Grand Slam title for each of the last seven years.

But clearly this year, Novak Djokovic has been his -- and everyone else's -- foil. Now rocking a 64-2 record, he also has nineteen wins over top ten opponents, and his only losses came to people in the top four. Every time you think he has to be exhausted he manages to get his racquet on one more ball and find the sharpest angle to make his shot. There are plenty of reasons -- improved fitness, a special diet, a new confidence in his game -- but the bottom line is that he really is that good. And week after week he's only gotten better. His tenth title of the year -- second place Robin Soderling only has four -- just backs up his dominance further.

So what is everyone else to do?

Roger Federer is the only other active (and contending) player out there who has more than one Major title under his belt. He's certainly not out of the picture yet, and conceivably has another Slam or two in his future, but it certainly looks like he's finding it harder to compete with the big guys. He held two match points in this weekend's semi but couldn't convert, and has now marked the first time since 2002 -- the year in which the great Swiss just cracked the top ten -- he did not win a Slam. He only made one final and hasn't taken any title since Doha in January. For him to break the Nole/Rafa stranglehold on the big events -- together they've won the last seven -- he might have to hope his younger contemporaries take out the stiffest competition for him.

Highlighting those contemporaries, of course, is world #4 Andy Murray, whose performance at the Slams does admittedly improve every year. He's played in all four semis this year, the first time he's ever accomplished that feat, and I'm frankly surprised he hasn't won one yet. He certainly has the game to do so -- he's won a solihttp://www.blogger.com/img/blank.gifd seven Masters titles, holds an impressive 8-6 record over Federer, and probably would have won the final in Cincinnati even if Nole hadn't retired. Yet deep into the fortnights of the big tournaments he always seems to struggle -- he hasn't won a single set in any of the three finals he's played.

Juan Martin Del Potro, of course, has been the only man other than Roger, Rafa and Nole to win a Slam since 2005, and so he clearly cannot be discounted. A lengthy lay-off from injury ended in fits and starts, but he did seem to get his game back together this year with titles in Estoril and Delray. I'm a bit surprised he didn't make a deeper run this year in New York, but as he returns to top form, I'd expect him to take a big part on the championship podium the next few years.

As for everyone else, sure there will be chances for others to shine. I'd love for Andy Roddick to win again in New York or Mardy Fish to have a late-career breakthrough. Youngsters like Bernard Tomic and Milos Raonic also certainly have shown they can cause a stir in the brackets, and once their games mature their names can get sprinkled in the mix.

Until then, though, we might have to get used to a new era -- one those at the top will not give up any time soon.

Drama, Drama, Drama

2011-09-12T09:47:00.001-04:00

It wouldn't be a night out in New York if a couple of heated sparks didn't fly. But thankfully, this time around, those sparks didn't cause too big a fire.

Three-time U.S. Open champion Serena Williams and last year's French Open finalist Sam Stosur took the court Sunday evening in what promised to be one of more thrilling women's finals we've seen in a while. But the most exciting moments of the match came, not from a fantastic shot or a drawn-out rally, but from a chair umpire's decision and the ensuing fall-out.

The storyline, if not the details, seems familiar. Serving at 30-40 in the first game of the second set, Williams prematurely and loudly celebrated a shot that probably would have been a winner. But because the shout came before Stosur got to the ball, Eva Asderaki -- neither the official from the 2009 foot-fault debacle nor the one from Serena's famed 2004 quarterfinal with Jennifer Capriati -- penalized the American for intentional hindrance and, rather than calling a let as commentators suggested was appropriate, awarded the point and, incidentally the break of serve, to Stosur.

It didn't come at quite as crucial a point in the match as did the penalty two years ago -- the commotion actually got the crowd on Serena's side, and she was able to draw back even the very next game -- but it did set off another angry tirade from Williams. She accused Asderaki of "screwing" her over again, apparently mistaking her for Mariana Alves who officiated in '04, and threatened during the changeover, "If you ever see me walking down the hall, walk the other way." Several points later she was still fuming over the code violation.

In the end, of course, it wasn't the "free" point, but the quality of Stosur's play that won her the match. She won more than seventy percent of her first serve points and committed half the number of errors as her opponent. She got her racquet on most balls Serena hit and was able to catch her off balance more than a few times with her own serve. She was able to withstand the noise and distraction that began the second set and kept her cool when she became the accidental villain in the crowd's eye. And when a forehand from Williams sailed wide on a second match point, it was Stosur who raised her arms in stunned victory.

It's a shame, of course, that the match will be remembered more for Williams' outburst than for Stosur's win. But the latter shouldn't be ignored -- after watching Sam play earlier in the week, I felt she was probably the only player in the field capable of absorbing and handing back the power Serena could dole out. And if you watched her Sunday, you have to appreciate the way she earned her victory -- with skill, focus and very little drama.

A Day to Remember

2011-09-11T15:51:00.000-04:00

For several reasons today carries a lot of meaning for so many, New Yorkers in particular. So it's only appropriate that we take the opportunity to remember and honor those we lost on this date, ten years ago. But at the same time, it's reassuring to know that we are able to find escape and enjoyment in things today, and the four men and women left standing at the U.S. Open have done more than their part to give us a show. It might not be the matches we expected at the outset, but both finals promise to deliver sparks we'll be talking about for a long time.

The ladies will contest their final later this afternoon, less than twenty-four hours after they each booked their spots.

Sam Stosur seems to have regained the form that made her the favorite at last year's French Open. The hard-hitting Australian was tested in some early rounds, going three sets against both Nadia Petrova and Maria Kirilenko last weekend, but breezed into the semis with a straight-set win over 2010 runner-up Vera Zvonareva. Last night versus world #92 Angelique Kerber she was seemingly in control before the German took the middle set but finally came through to reach her second Major final.

In the late match last night 2008 champion Serena Williams continued her comeback and added to the doubts swirling around world #1 Caroline Wozniacki, who's now gone just about a year in the top spot without a Grand Slam title. Though she's shown a bit more vulnerability in recent matches, she's largely dominated her opponents, one by one, and leads the field in serving and acing statistics. Now the only player in any draw who hasn't dropped a set, she's clearly the one with experience on her side on Sunday.

The two have met a handful of times over the past few years, with Serena taking their last match in Toronto in two quick sets. But Stosur should take heart in their amazing Roland Garros quarterfinal last year, which produced some of the best points of the tournament -- she won that battle to establish herself in the top ten. It's true that her route to the final might have left her a bit winded, but this has the potential to be the best-contested championship on the women's side we've seen in a long time.

On the men's side Rafael Nadal made his way to a second consecutive final in New York with his win over Andy Murray last night. Both were playing matches on back-to-back days, but the Spaniard was the fresher from the start. After taking a relatively quick two-set lead, he finally gave up a break in the third, but was able to hold on for the win in a relatively uneventful match. After some early losses over the summer and limited hardcourt play, I'm not sure many believed the world #2 would repeat the run, but it's good to see him hitting and moving as effortlessly as always.

He might even have the advantage over his opponent, top-ranked Novak Djokovic who withstood a brutal five set marathon in the first semi contested yesterday. After losing the first two sets to five-time champion Roger Federer, it looked as though the Serb was down for the count. He managed to get and hold onto a break early in the third and somehow even forced a decider, but when Fed took the lead it seemed all his efforts were for naught. But somewhere in him, he found the strength to save two match points, draw back even, and ultimately serve out the match. It was the fourth time Djokovic had beaten the legend this year and avenged his loss in the Paris semis -- famously one of only two losses he's so far suffered this year.

So under some of the most unlikely circumstances the top two men in the world will play for the U.S. Open trophy tomorrow. Nadal, of course, holds the overall lead in their head-to-head history and won their meeting here just last year, but the margin has significantly narrowed over the last nine months with Djokovic winning all five of their face-offs in 2011, including, somewhat surprisingly, the Wimbledon championship. It's been a strange and exciting struggle to watch, and one you have to think will end sooner-or-later. But his long semi notwithstanding, Djokovic's game is certainly more suited to this surface, and something tells me we could be in for a good fight on Monday.

It's nice to know that on this anniversary date there are still some things out there that can make us smile and cheer and leave our deeper concerns aside for just a little while. It's a tough day for all of us, but we can take comfort in the fact that life can go on from here, and if we're lucky there's some good tennis along the way.

Raining Reining It In

2011-09-08T21:42:00.000-04:00

After two days of virtually no play at the U.S. Open, the grounds were finally abuzz again Thursday, as players and fans packed all the courts at Flushing Meadows and tried to cram in as much tennis as they could. There were some upsets, some breakthroughs, and some serious beat-downs, and as we draw ever closer to determining this year's titleists, even with more storms in the forecast, it's clear that the ones who will prosper are those who've best controlled themselves during some very adverse conditions.

The men finished up their fourth round matches first, many resuming sets they'd barely started Wednesday -- understandably, to the complaints of several. Defending champion Rafael Nadal and #4 seed Andy Murray each had fairly simple days, with the Spaniard overcoming a early break by Gilles Murray to win the match in straights and the Scot powering through five games in a row to claim the first set before finishing off Donald Young in under two hours. Both were clear beneficiaries of their experience, and never allowed their opponents to play catch-up in matches that should have been completed two years ago.

Over on the outer courts, two Americans found a way to power through higher-ranked players despite delays, court bubbling and an unusual change in locale. John Isner, who never began his match on Wednesday, came back from a break down against former top-ten player Gilles Simon to win the first set in a tiebreak. About two hours later he withstood losing the lead in the fourth and ultimately notched the upset, making his first ever Slam quarterfinal. At about the same time, 2003 U.S. Open champ Andy Roddick was finishing up a match way out on Court 13, usually reserved for little-known players and juniors matches. Having his match suspended yesterday after securing a break, he was unflustered on resumption, taking a two-set lead and finally closing out the win over fifth-seeded David Ferrer in about two-and-a-half hours. That earned the veteran his best performance here since 2008 and showed he still might have what it takes to get a big win.

When those men were done, the ladies took the courts to contest their quarterfinals. World #1 Caroline Wozniacki, who displayed some real fight in her fourth round, late-night match against Svetlana Kuznetsova Monday, was similarly relentless against feisty Andrea Petkovic. After grabbing the early lead quickly, she failed on her first attempt to serve out the match in the second, but ultimately won the tiebreak to make her third straight semifinal here. She'll have to meet non-paper favorite Serena Williams to advance, though, and the American continues to play some of her best ball. Though she traded breaks with young Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova for the first six games of their match, she ultimately held strong to make her nineteenth Major semi, and you gotta like her chances here on out.

The upsets, though, came in the bottom half of the women's bracket. Last year's runner-up Vera Zvonareva was slated against Sam Stosur, herself a Grand Slam finalist in 2010, who must have been thrilled for the respite after battling through two long three-setters in her previous two rounds. The Australian took control early, dropping just four points on first serve in the opening set, and quickly finished off her opponent, marking her eighth straight win over the second seed. The bigger shock, however, came in this half's other match where super-unseeded Angelique Kerber took on recent giant-killer Flavia Pennetta. In a match with sixteen breaks of serve, and incidentally the only quarterfinal that took three sets to complete, the twenty-three year old German, whose previous Major best was a couple third round appearances, was ultimately the victor.

The last couple matches that took the court today largely proceeded as expected -- or at least as you'd expect these days. Novak Djokovic was slightly spotty against compatriot Janko Tipsarevic for two sets, giving up and getting back breaks all over the place, but won nine games in a row before his friend retired midway through the fourth set. And in the night session grudge match between Roger Federer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, the five-time champion had an early break before, once-again, rain halted play.

Of course the schedule for the rest of the tournament has been somewhat turned on its head, and with a less-than-inspring forecast the next few days threatening more stop-and-go action, everyone left will have to continue to keep their cool on the court. There will certainly be more frustration and delays ahead, but if the players can stay focused and protect their games and their safety, we have the prospect of several days of great tennis ahead of us!